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It is never easy to predict which quarterbacks will break out every year. There's a lot to be taken into account, including the supporting cast, protection from the offensive line, and the overall situation.
During the 2023-2024 season, the biggest quarterback breakouts were C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love. Very few people predicted these breakouts, so it sometimes catches us all by surprise. Stroud threw for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while Love threw for 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.
Which quarterbacks will break out during the 2024 season? Let's dive in and find out.
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Honorable Mention: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
This one is more of a long shot, but don't count out Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young just yet. It was a rough first year for Young in the NFL. He threw for just 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. However, if the team can be active in the offseason and sign some wideouts, Young could take that next step.
Young's first season was not pretty, but we've seen other quarterbacks struggle in year one. Trevor Lawrence threw for 3,641 yards and 12 touchdowns with 17 interceptions in his first year in 2021. The Jaguars then fired head coach Urban Meyer and signed Christian Kirk in free agency, which helped Lawrence take a leap in 2022.
Frank Reich was fired by the Panthers, and Dave Canales took over as the head coach. Canales just helped Baker Mayfield throw for a career-high 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2023. If Carolina can also sign a solid wideout like Marquise Brown, Calvin Ridley, or Mike Evans, Young could be in store for a breakout season.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
Quarterback Justin Fields is still on the Chicago Bears, but there's a strong chance he is moved before the 2024 NFL Draft. With the Bears likely drafting quarterback Caleb Williams with the first overall pick, Fields should have a new home for the 2024 season. A change of scenario could help the 24-year-old finally break out.
Justin Fields has unfollowed the Bears on Instagram and follows Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson 👀
He has moved from +275 ➡️ +150 to take his first snap in the 2024/25 NFL regular season with the Atlanta Falcons @DKSportsbook pic.twitter.com/Uj4G9lHY0W
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) February 20, 2024
Fields has not shown much growth in the passing game over his three years, throwing for a combined 6,674 yards, 40 touchdowns, and 30 interceptions. However, Chicago did not do a great job surrounding the quarterback with talent over those seasons. In 2023 -- when the Bears acquired wide receiver D.J. Moore and drafted offensive tackle Darnell Wright in the first round -- the former Ohio State product completed a career-high 61.4% of his passes for a career-high 2,562 yards.
Now, Fields has a chance to go to a better situation if he is traded. The Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers remain the two favorites to land the Bears' quarterback this offseason. Both teams also have plenty of weapons in the passing game to support him. The Falcons not only have a solid offensive line but have playmakers like Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson. On the Steelers' side, throwing to George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth could make a big difference.
Caleb Williams, 2024 NFL Draft Prospect
Breaking out as a rookie quarterback doesn't happen too often. However, we saw it last year with Stroud, and it could happen again with Williams in 2024. The USC quarterback is said to be one of the best quarterback prospects in recent memory, so there's a strong chance he could have a solid first season.
Williams is the clear favorite to land in Chicago with Fields likely headed to a different team. While the landing spot isn't the best, having a clear WR1 in Moore could really help develop the 22-year-old quarterback. The Bears also have another first-round pick at ninth overall, which could turn out to be an offensive lineman or wide receiver. Either position would help the rookie in year one.
The top five picks in Daniel Jeremiah's Mock Draft 2.0:
1. Bears: QB Caleb Williams
2. Commanders: QB Drake Maye
3. Patriots: WR Marvin Harrison, Jr.
4. Cardinals: WR Malik Nabers
5. Chargers: OT Joe Alt— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) February 20, 2024
Williams has been labeled as a can't-miss prospect, and he can easily throw for over 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns in his first year. The USC product is the best chance of a 2024 rookie quarterback breaking out.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson was well on his way to a breakout 2023 rookie season. He threw for 577 yards and three touchdowns while also running for 136 yards and four touchdowns in 2 1/2 games. Richardson only played two full games in Week 1 and Week 4, where he had over 255 total yards and at least two touchdowns in both contests.
However, the rookie was knocked out for the season in Week 5 when he needed surgery to repair the AC joint in his throwing shoulder. With Richardson progressing faster than expected from the surgery, the 21-year-old quarterback should be in store for a breakout 2024 season.
These throws by Anthony Richardson don't get talked about enough.
His arm talent is CRAZY. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/bWo7KEtoCE
— Indy SportsOne (@IndySportsOne) February 1, 2024
The key for Richardson will be staying healthy next season. He only played 18 snaps in Week 2 due to a concussion and then 22 snaps in Week 5 due to a shoulder injury. The rookie also missed the Week 3 contest against the Baltimore Ravens with a concussion. The skillset and size (6-foot-4, 244 pounds) are both there for the 21-year-old to succeed in his career. Of all the quarterbacks on this list, he's the most likely to break out this upcoming season. If he stays healthy, that should happen in 2024.
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