RADIO
All summer long, the fantasy community has been on a mission to uncover the next breakout wide receiver. This hunt has become a big deal over the last few seasons, especially after Stefon Diggs helped folks snag a fantasy championship in 2020, Cooper Kupp won the wide receiver triple crown in 2021, Amon-Ra St. Brown smashed his ADP in 2022 despite the doubters, and Puka Nacua set fantasy leagues ablaze in 2023.
With the fantasy landscape shifting to push wide receivers up draft boards even more and bell-cow running backs becoming a scarce resource, fantasy drafts have gotten a lot more challenging. If you do decide to take one early running back, there are still several solid wide receivers to target in the earlier to middle rounds of your draft, and the player soon to be revealed below is one.
I’m talking about Houston Texans wide receiver Tank Dell. The addition of veteran wideout Stefon Diggs has plenty of people in the fantasy industry worried about Dell, but there is no need to worry. Based on all of the research that has been concluded as well as a thorough film evaluation, Dell is a strong candidate to smash his ADP this year.
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Why Tank Dell is Flying Under the Radar in Fantasy Football
For this article, we are going to exclude the top 24 wide receivers in ADP (as of August 30, 2024) from falling into the category of eligible breakout wide receivers. Let's be honest, you're probably looking for a player who has a greater chance of completely smashing his ADP, which is what we are aiming to do in our drafts. Not to mention, it helps to make predicting this wide receiver's breakout a little bolder of a take.
According to FantasyPros ADP data, Dell is listed as the WR29 with an overall ADP of 63.0 in half-PPR formats, which means he is often available in the early part of the sixth round. If you decided to draft an elite running back in the first round, you could find solace knowing that Dell is a top wide receiver who is still available later.
Many in the community have called Dell a fade this season due to the reality he will competing against Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Dalton Schultz, and Joe Mixon for targets, but that is a mistake.
Dell was well on his way as a rookie last year before breaking his leg and missing the team's final six regular season games, including the playoffs. Despite all that, Dell put up an impressive 47 receptions for 709 yards and 7 touchdowns, good for an average of 15.1 yards per reception! Sheesh. What's even more impressive about Dell is that despite his size, he still primarily played as an outside receiver.
Tank (one of the funnier nickname dichotomies in sports) measures in at 5-foot-8 and 165 lbs, but was still taken in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft after quarterback C.J. Stroud recommended to the Texans front office that they select Dell on draft weekend. Good thing they decided to listen, right?
According to PFF, Dell played 70.1% of his snaps in 2023 lined up out wide and just 28.7% from the slot. This is impressive considering that many teams have moved their smaller receivers inside due to the reality that many of them struggle against press and man coverage, but as you can see from the Reception Perception data below, Dell was very effective on the outside.
Tank Dell was one of the best receivers in the league on out-breaking routes last season...not among rookies but all receivers.
The fact that he hit or cleared an 80% success rate on all three of the comeback, out and corner routes in #ReceptionPerception while running them at… pic.twitter.com/pUnRfL9VZ6
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) May 21, 2024
Metrics that Predict Wide Receiver Breakouts
Ryan Heath of FantasyPoints did an article last season that analyzed the average age of WR breakouts by year. What he found was that 74.5 percent of all the wide receiver breakouts happened within a player's first three NFL seasons, but that the likelihood almost doubled from Year One to Year Two, going from 14.9 percent to 27.7 percent in Year Two.
Dell's quarterback is C.J. Stroud, who is incredibly accurate and took the NFL by storm as a rookie in 2023. Stroud averaged 273.9 passing yards per game as a rookie and threw 23 touchdowns over the season. The Texans' offensive line is solid and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik returned for another year, which is also another reason to feel incredibly bullish for this offense in 2024.
Dell averaged 2.22 yards per routes run as a rookie (per PFF) and had a PFF receiving grade of 83.3, which is very high for a rookie!
Nico Collins and Tank Dell played 60%+ of the snaps together in 7 games last season.
Targets
Nico: 52
Tank: 53Receptions
Nico: 37
Tank: 35Yards
Nico: 601
Tank: 571Touchdowns
Nico: 5
Tank: 61/2 PPR Fantasy Points
Nico: 108.6
Tank: 110.6Underdog ADP
Nico: WR12, 17.2… pic.twitter.com/pnU4fyXJ3I— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) July 24, 2024
Some were concerned about Dell's size coming into the league as a rookie, but with how much NFL offenses have changed to feature more spread offenses with 3-plus wide receivers on the field, as well as the enforcement of defensive holding, defensive pass interference, and illegal contact from the officials, defensive backs can't get away with being as physical as they used to in previous eras.
How much the game has evolved, including the rise of pre-snap motion has only helped to make it easier for smaller receivers to succeed in today's NFL due to the reality that they can be freed up at the line of scrimmage upon the snap. If you recall this article from two years ago, the WR breakout choice that yours truly recommended was DeVonta Smith. While he is a bigger receiver than Dell, there were similar concerns about his size coming into the league.
Wide receivers also tend to improve the most from Year One to Year Two when they have a full NFL season under their belt. In years past, we have often looked at Year Three as the time when a wide receiver would break out, but they have begun happening earlier and earlier and Year Two is more of an accurate benchmark.
Tank Dell 2024 Fantasy Football Outlook
Would you rather bet on elite talents in fantasy football in 2024 or bet on situations? As we've seen over the years, situations can change, but talent does not. While it may seem like there are too many mouths to feed in Houston, rankings and projections don't always account for what would happen for Dell in fantasy if Collins or Diggs were to miss any games.
The one thing that could hold Dell back this season is how much he plays in 2-WR sets compared to Diggs, but with how well Tank plays as an outside receiver there is always a chance that Diggs is the one who is moved inside. This is something we have seen older star wide receivers do to extend their careers, much like Larry Fitzgerald moving to the slot during his final years with the Arizona Cardinals.
Every Tank Dell target from his rookie season. He might be breakable, but he sure isn't guardable. Count me in. pic.twitter.com/WdpjXVi1MU
— Jason Moore (@jasonffl) July 9, 2024
Dell is a very exciting player for fantasy football and can take any reception to the house at any time. He finished as a top-15 wide receiver in fantasy last season on a points-per-game basis, which was ahead of Nico Collins. While there is some risk to selecting him, there is also a great reward. The Texans being the No. 1 offense is well within their range of outcomes for the 2024 season.
Of course, we never want to see a player get injured, but if Nico Collins or Stefon Diggs were to miss any time, Tank Dell would instantly become a top-12 starter in almost every format. In fantasy football, we often overestimate our ability to predict personnel tendencies as well as run/pass ratios on a year-to-year basis. Sometimes, it’s just smarter to bet on pure talent and let everything else work itself out.
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