Undervalued Third Basemen to Outperform ADP for Fantasy Baseball Drafts (2024)

A couple of weeks ago, I gave a rundown of our third base rankings and tiers. Player by player, I went down the list and briefly touched on what they accomplished in 2023 and what might be in store for the season ahead. For the most part, there were no big surprises, but as I worked my way down the list, a handful of names stood out to me as candidates to outperform their ADP.

These players aren’t sleepers per se, but they have been pushed down draft boards for various reasons. Perhaps there are injury concerns or questions about playing time. Or it could simply be that they slip as managers fill out other more pressing needs at other positions.

Flexibility is important on draft day. Having options you know will be available down the board gives you targets to pivot to and can open the door to opportunities that may arise in earlier rounds. If you miss out on one of the elite third basemen on draft day, fear not. Keep these players in mind and search for more at each position. When you are done reading, check out more of our new preseason content being published on RotoBaller every day.

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Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins

ADP: 48.72

Dorktown: Royce Lewis! pic.twitter.com/aqbklDrFZZ

— Secret Base (@secretbase) February 9, 2024

Royce Lewis had a mini-breakout in 2023. In 239 plate appearances, the 24-year-old hit 15 home runs, recorded 52 RBI, and had a .309 batting average to boot. If we use his 2023 numbers to project the results of a full 600 PA season, Lewis would have had 90 runs, 37 HR, and 130 RBI. Oh, and the six bases he stole would have translated to 15.

Lewis is not sneaking up on anyone. His current ADP puts him at the turn of the fourth and fifth rounds of 12-team leagues. But if Lewis lives up to the precedent he set in his rookie year, then he will provide first-round production. That’s only happening if the budding star can stay healthy. A twice-torn ACL in his right knee caused him to miss all of 2021 and most of 2022. The knee held up last season but he still missed close to seven weeks, first because of an oblique strain in July and then with a sore hamstring at the end of the season.

While the injury risk may scare off some managers, the reward is picking up a Jose Ramirez-type five-category contributor more than 30 picks later than the established premier third baseman. Given the glut of talent still available within the top-50 picks of fantasy drafts, reaching for Lewis may not be necessary (or advisable). Just be assured that picking him up at his ADP could pay big dividends by the season’s end.

Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP: 169.25

Max Muncy doubles down the line against a lefty for another run. pic.twitter.com/KMLMdbWIWX

— Chad Moriyama (@ChadMoriyama) March 18, 2024

In 2023, Max Muncy matched his career high in home runs with 36 and logged his first-ever season with over 100 RBI, finishing with 105. He also crossed the plate 95 times himself. Those totals ranked him third, first, and fourth among third basemen in their respective categories. The drawback was his .212 batting average, making it the fourth consecutive season his average ended at .249 or lower.

Those who can stomach the hit to that category will gain a healthy boost to their counting stats (stolen bases excepted). Muncy has always been a masher, owning barrel and hard-hit rates of at least 12% and 40%, respectively, since 2018. He will again be a good bet to hit the 30-HR plateau and could flirt with another 100 RBI season hitting behind the All-Star-laden top half of the Dodgers lineup. Muncy’s on-base skills (93rd percentile or better walk rate since 2018) sets him up to cross the plate plenty as well.

Such productivity would put him close to what is expected of fellow three true outcomes stud Kyle Schwarber, whose ADP is at 81.48. Muncy is being taken 20 picks behind fellow third baseman Jake Burger and over 50 picks behind Josh Jung. All three have similar projections, with the sticking point being Muncy’s lousy batting average. A team with the right build could take on that baggage and get a better return than most can provide at the turn of the 14th and 15th rounds in 12-team drafts.

Jeimer Candelario, Cincinnati Reds

ADP: 212.90

3⃣ goes 3⃣#RedsST pic.twitter.com/WhIeFYkCG4

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) March 19, 2024

Jeimer Candelario signed a three-year, $45 million contract with the Reds in December. Given the surplus of talent on display in Cincy’s infield in 2023, the move seemed curious to say the least. Now that top prospect and expected starting third baseman Noelvi Marte has been bumped off the depth chart thanks to an 80-game suspension, Candelario’s role as an everyday player seems more secure.

Last year, Candelario recorded career highs in home runs (22) and RBI (70). The switch-hitter now gets to play half his games in one of the league's most hitter-friendly venues. Hitting regularly in the middle of the Reds lineup should invite enough RBI opportunities to see that total swell well past 80. With a 215.69 ADP, Candelario is a good bet to punch above his weight and produce counting stats along the lines of fellow corner infielders Alec Bohm and Isaac Paredes, who are being drafted 40 to 50 picks earlier.

Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals

ADP: 222.91

Maikel Garcia had an impressive rookie season for the underperforming Royals. In 123 games, he swiped 23 bags, which was second only to Jose Ramirez’s 28 among third basemen. Garcia’s .272 batting average for the season was the fourth highest at the position. He only hit four home runs but smacked 20 doubles in his partial season.

At face value, Garcia doesn’t have a lot of power, but his Statcast profile shows some surprising pop. His 50.6% hard-hit rate ranked in the 93rd percentile in the majors and his average exit velocity (91.8 MPH) ranked seventh among third basemen. He won’t be a threat to push 20 homers but he has the potential to reach double digits.

While Garcia won’t provide the HR and RBI production you usually expect from third base, he is a favorite to outperform in other categories. He is expected to lead off for the Royals, which should make him a steady source of runs. Hitting 30 SBs is well within reach over a full season given his production last year. And given how hard it can be to find help in the batting average category late in drafts, Garcia’s ability to make contact should prove especially valuable.

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