RADIO
Spencer Aguiar digs into what it might take to win the Masters. He uses his PGA DFS and betting model to predict the possible winners of the Masters in 2024.
The history at Augusta tells more than just a story; it helps to figure out who might be able to grab the green jacket come Sunday.
You can tune into any article this week and see how the venue ranks as the most predictable course on tour regarding rollover success rate. Most of that aspect stems from the wide-open nature of the grounds that will possess diabolical green complexes at all turns. However, the fact that Augusta is the only major championship track to take place at the same location yearly adds to this predictive nature, allowing a formularized blueprint for projected win equity to be measured.
There are no promises that the trend will continue here in 2024, but this process has narrowed down the winner in all five years I have run a model. Sure, the number six can have negative connotations when talking directly about the Seven Deadly Sins, especially if you add a couple more sixes into the mix, but let's attempt to keep the recent run rolling of predicting the winner here at the Masters.
The Seven Deadly Sins - Who Can Win At Augusta In 2024?
Sin #1 - Envy - A feeling of discontented or resentful longing aroused by someone else's possessions, qualities, or luck.
Who The Sin Affects:
Golfers Over The Age of 45
Age is a fickle bitch, and there is just no staying out of its way. Hell, we have all been envious of those younger than us at one time or another.
We have seen that narrative play out repeatedly at Augusta, with only Jack Nicklaus ever winning the Masters later in life. Nicklaus landed at 46 years, two months and 23 days during that victory, which would remove the following players from this year's pool who are older than 45 when the Masters starts.
Don't shoot the messenger on Tiger Woods...
Sin #2 - Lust - A powerful desire or hunger for something.
Who The Sin Affects:
Golfers Who Won't Be Making At Least Their Third Appearance At Augusta
If old age was a detrimental quality in capturing the green jacket, youthful or inexperienced stature falls victim to the same outcome. Sometimes, we want things before we are fully ready to appreciate them.
A first-timer hasn't won the event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and it typically takes a few showings to get accustomed to the undulation of the greens. That would eliminate the following golfers from consideration, including some true favorites in Ludvig Aberg, Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala and Tom Kim.
Sin #3 - Sloth - A habitual disinclination to exertion.
Who The Sin Affects:
Golfers Ranked Outside The Top-50 Compared to the Field in Driving Distance
Disinclination off the tee is a troubling outlook.
While length is not the only deciding quality if you want to succeed at Augusta, it does hurt someone's upside potential if they can't crack the top 50 names in an 87-person field regarding pure driving distance.
Losing Tommy Fleetwood, Cameron Smith, Sungjae Im, Brian Harman, and Collin Morikawa removes top-20 projected win equity candidates in the field.
Sin #4 - Wrath - A strong vengeful anger or indignation.
Who The Sin Affects:
Golfers Ranked Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field Around the Green
Did you miss a green in regulation and not have the temperament to solve your initial mistake?
There are too many areas for players to find trouble, which will show quickly if your short game falters for any reason.
You might notice that we lose a lot of your LIV names in this section.
Sin #5 - Gluttony - An overindulgence or habitual greed.
Who The Sin Affects:
Golfers Ranked Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Three-Putting
Taking on too much risk and not playing things safe in this area has been known to unravel the best players in the world.
Consider this a similar sin to what we just discussed regarding wrath, but mistakes can and will add up quickly if you don't eat your food as medicine.
Sin #6 - Pride - A consciousness of one's own dignity.
Who The Sin Affects:
Players Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field In Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage + Aggression
Too much pride won't allow risk-taking because of the potential for failure.
The property's four par-fives are the most accessible holes, and you can't afford to miss out on scoring opportunities.
If we are being honest, Hatton's wrath and anger likely should have removed him earlier.
Sin #7 - Greed - An intense and selfish desire for something, especially wealth or power.
Who The Sin Affects:
Someone Who Hasn't Posted A Top-30 Result at the Venue during one of their last three attempts
If you haven't posted a top-30 at Augusta during the past three attempts, why would you believe you will turn things around during one of the most predictable venues on tour?
"Greed is a fat demon with a small mouth, and whatever you feed it is never enough."
Who Is Left Standing?
We are down to just nine golfers! Please note that failure to make this list will not be a reason I exclude a golfer from my DFS pool, but I will try and stick to these names when selecting my handful of outright bets.
“I shall purge them of their evils, and I shall not remember their sins again.”
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