RADIO
The 2023 fantasy football season is nearly here. One of the most popular fantasy football sayings is that you can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it.
That saying means fantasy players want to avoid first-round draft picks who end up being a bust. While your first-round selection won’t win you the league, it could cost you a chance at winning the title.
Instead of only looking at the first round, I’ve provided the safest draft pick for every NFC team.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
NFC EAST
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
The former Oklahoma star had a breakout season in 2022. CeeDee Lamb was the WR6, averaging 14.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The superstar had nine receiving touchdowns after totaling 11 over his first two years in the NFL. Meanwhile, Lamb has impressed his new teammate this offseason -- Pro Bowl cornerback Stephon Gilmore.
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG)
Now that Saquon Barkley has signed the franchise tag, fantasy players should feel confident drafting the superstar running back. Last year, the former Penn State star averaged 16 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, having his best season since 2019. More importantly, the Giants only added an injury-prone Darren Waller in the offseason. Therefore, Barkley should remain the focal point of the offense.
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
Philadelphia has an elite wide receiver duo in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Furthermore, Dallas Goedert and D’Andre Swift give Jalen Hurts four outstanding weapons in the passing game. Meanwhile, the superstar quarterback had the second-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL last season (13). With Miles Sanders in Carolina, Hurts could see that number rise in 2023.
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)
While the Commanders continue to look for their franchise quarterback, it hasn’t held back Terry McLaurin. The veteran has consistently been a low-end WR2 for fantasy players. However, he had the best finish of his career last season. He ended the year as the WR14, averaging 11.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yes, Jahan Dotson is a popular breakout candidate. Yet, that won’t stop McLaurin from maintaining his WR2 fantasy status.
NFC NORTH
DJ Moore (WR – CHI)
Unfortunately, DJ Moore has spent the first five years of his career with subpar quarterback play on the Carolina Panthers. However, he is prime for a breakout season with Justin Fields throwing him passes. The former Maryland star had been a consistent WR2 for fantasy players, totaling at least 1,150 receiving yards or seven touchdowns in four consecutive seasons. Don’t expect that to change this year.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET)
Despite being a fourth-round draft pick, Amon-Ra St. Brown has become one of the top wide receivers in the NFL. After ending his rookie season on fire, the former USC star was the WR8 last year, averaging 13.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, the Lions lack proven pass catchers with upside on the roster. St. Brown is Jared Goff’s favorite target. That won’t change in 2023.
Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
The Packers underwent several changes in the offseason. They lost Allen Lazard in free agency and traded Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets. Then the team spent five draft picks on wide receivers and tight ends. With Jordan Love taking over at quarterback, Green Bay will want to limit how much they put on his plate. Whether on the ground or in the passing game, Aaron Jones will be the focal point of the offense.
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
Justin Jefferson is a near lock to be the 1.01 pick in every fantasy draft this year. The former LSU star joins Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill as the only wide receivers with a top-six finish the past three consecutive years. Furthermore, Jefferson led the NFL in receptions (128), targets (184), and receiving yards (1,809) last season.
NFC SOUTH
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
While Bijan Robinson hasn’t taken an NFL snap, the former Longhorn is already an elite fantasy player. The rookie is an explosive runner, seeing nearly 40% of his rushing attempts last year go for 15 or more yards. Meanwhile, the Falcons have the top run-blocking offensive line in the NFL. Furthermore, the former Longhorn is an elite receiving threat. No one should be surprised if Robinson ends the year as the RB1.
Miles Sanders (RB – CAR)
After struggling to find the end zone in 2021, Miles Sanders had 11 rushing touchdowns last season, a career-high. More importantly, he was the RB13, averaging 12.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, the former Penn State star has more upside this season. Unlike last year, Sanders won’t have his quarterback stealing goal-line rushing touchdowns away from him.
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
Last year, Chris Olave was the WR25, averaging 10.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite catching passes from Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. However, that won’t be the case this season after the Saints added Derek Carr. More importantly, no one can challenge Olave’s projected target share. While Michael Thomas is still around, the veteran has missed 80% of the games over the past three years.
Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
Unfortunately, the veteran wide receiver will catch passes from either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask this season, a significant downgrade from Tom Brady last year. However, the former Penn State star is still a safe-floor wide receiver for fantasy players. Despite coming off a torn ACL and dealing with other injuries, Chris Godwin had his second consecutive 1,000-yard receiving yard year while setting a career-high in receptions (104) and targets (142) last season.
NFC WEST
James Conner (RB – ARI)
The Cardinals will have one of the worst records in the NFL this year. However, James Conner is a vastly underrated fantasy running back. The veteran was outstanding to end last season, averaging 21.3 touches and 17.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over his final seven contests. With Kyler Murray sidelined and DeAndre Hopkins gone, Conner could be the focal point of the offense.
Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR)
Unfortunately, Cooper Kupp recently suffered a hamstring injury in practice. However, the team is calling the superstar day-to-day and expects him back well before Week 1. Last year, he was the WR1 on a points-per-game basis after being the overall WR1 in 2021. The Rams lack proven pass catchers outside of Kupp, meaning the veteran could lead the NFL in targets this year.
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)
After struggling with injuries in 2020 and 2021, Christian McCaffrey played all 17 games last season. More importantly, he was the top-scoring fantasy running back once he joined the 49ers, averaging 20.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in the final 10 contests with the team. While San Francisco has several talented weapons, McCaffrey was built for Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Expect another top-three finish from McCaffrey in 2023.
Geno Smith (QB – SEA)
Geno Smith was the biggest fantasy surprise last season. When many thought he would lose the starting job, the veteran ended the year as the QB5, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he had the fourth-most passing touchdowns (30). Meanwhile, the Seahawks added Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet during the NFL Draft. Smith has arguably the top set of wide receivers and running backs in the NFL.
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