The Quarterback Age Cliff: When Should You Fade Aging Fantasy Veterans?

No human on earth can avoid the aging process. For athletes, especially those in the NFL, one of the most competitive sports leagues on earth, we get to see it play out in real-time and how it affects different position groups differently. The most famous position group is obviously quarterback.

Part of the reason QBs tend to be more famous is that they handle the ball on nearly every offensive play, but another reason is that they tend to last longer than every other position group not on special teams. We've seen plenty of great quarterbacks play well into their 30s. Helps when you don't have to outrun linebackers.

So let's break down the age cliffs for quarterbacks and which ones we should start being concerned about. We'll also break down which should be faded completely due to their age.

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An Important Aside: Injury Histories, And Elite Players

Quarterbacks are a more difficult evaluation than the other position because explosiveness and raw athleticism are a much smaller part of the equation. How well their body can stand up to the punishment of playing QB in the NFL is the biggest factor here, and injury history plays a huge part in that.

Some quarterbacks are unfortunate enough to suffer serious injuries to their throwing shoulder, which can shorten their careers drastically. Former Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton was a victim of this and in his

Kelvin Benjamin's low effort and inability to box out at 6'5 250 LBS in the RED ZONE of all places led to the downfall of Cam Newton. Newton injured his shoulder At the end of the play trying to save the pick 6.

If KB doesn't get flowers, it's because he DOESN'T deserve them. https://t.co/LJrNsQpJIt pic.twitter.com/eudiZn4gas

— 👑C3KingCodais (@CodyLac) January 30, 2024

2020, his age-31 season, was his last as a starter, when he played for the New England Patriots. He only lasted one season there. His shoulder never recovered. Most good quarterbacks last longer, and we've seen many quarterbacks sustain good production even in their later years.

One big issue with evaluating QBs is that they often play through a multitude of serious injuries that aren't listed on the injury report. A pure pocket passer might hardly run with the ball, instead opting to stand back and deliver passes or throw the ball away when there are no other options.

Brittany Brees post on Instagram how many injuries Drew fought through this season with the #Saints. @FOX8NOLA pic.twitter.com/bNRJFSA9Qf

— Garland Gillen (@garlandgillen) January 20, 2021

Because of this, the exact age a QB's production will start to tank is hard to pin down. In the above post, former New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees' injuries that he played through in his final season are detailed. And we saw something similar with New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers. He reported played through multiple injuries last season.

At some point, the human body simply can't handle more years of punishment from getting battered by NFL players. That's often where the QB age cliff occurs because many elite QBs can still throw the ball well into their 40s.

Quarterbacks Between 30-36: Should You Be Concerned?

This is a tough question to answer because it depends heavily on the player's play style. It's hard to know when we should be concerned for great QBs that are pure pocket passers, but we'll start with them anyway. Because there are so few starting quarterbacks in the league in their 30s (relative to other positions), we'll go on more of a case-by-case basis.

It would help to start with quarterbacks that have seen a decline in production, but not a serious fall-off. We'll set a baseline that makes sense at around 35-36. Anecdotally, it makes sense for QBs that haven't suffered severe injuries yet.

Russell Wilson, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

It's a bit beyond time to be concerned about Wilson. Part of the problem is that with Seattle, his style revolved around using his elite elusiveness and athleticism (for a QB, at least) to evade pressure, escape the pocket, and make big plays downfield.

The #Seahawks get Russell Wilson back this week. This is some goat stuff. 🐐 pic.twitter.com/1rNDnQhU4Y

— Seattle ON Tap (@SeattleONTap) November 12, 2021

He also made a significant number of plays on the run. We didn't see much of this during his two years with the Denver Broncos. Typically, quarterbacks don't run the ball nearly as much after 30. Wilson is 36 and will turn 37 in November. Regarding his arm, it appeared to be intact last season, but it's time to start getting concerned that it will begin to fade as well.

Add another one to the reel for Russell Wilson and George Pickens https://t.co/0qOMGzHgg6 pic.twitter.com/EZpEgVDNYA

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 19, 2024

A slow decline is already happening, though it may take more time for it to become sharper. I expect a gradual decline this season and the next if he even has a full-time starting role.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott will turn 32 before the 2025 NFL season starts. He might be absolutely delusional, but he can still sling it. The main production issues will likely come from the decline in the team's offensive line play (relative to the elite state it was in early in his career), play-calling issues, and his lack of ability to run.

Since breaking his ankle in 2021, he's been much less run-happy. And in 2024, he tore part of his hamstring off the bone in a two-play injury, the first being one of his only long runs in a while. Suffice to say the rushing upside part of his game is mostly gone.

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions

Goff will turn 31 next season. There is little concern here because there was never any rushing upside. And his head coach, Dan Campbell, will still be there. Who knows how much the offense will fall off with Ben Johnson gone, but probably not a ton.

Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints 

Whether he ends up being the starter, we won't know for sure. But he's about to round the corner and turn 34 years old in March. He has a very concerning injury history, unfortunately. It's right to be worried about him, and equally about the terrible cap situation and overall poor roster the team has.

Still, wide receivers Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave and running back Alvin Kamara form a solid receiving group to throw to. Expect Carr's production to slowly decline over the next two years.

Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks

He has at least one more good year left, but probably at least two. He showed impressive elusiveness behind a terrible offensive line in 2024. If that collapses further, we could see the production decline too, though it will depend on the offense around him, of course.

There's little reason to be alarmed yet, though, and 2025 is probably a year in which he's fantasy-relevant.

Quarterbacks Above 36: Is It Time To Fade??

We'll dive straight into a few players here.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Apparently, the team doesn't want him back. Regardless, he just turned 37 and has a long and brutal injury history. Seems like LA wants to get ahead of the inevitable fall-off. And they're right to do so, if not a bit early because the wheels are probably about to come off within two years.

I'm all for trading for Matthew Stafford, as long as we keep our #1 pick.. let’s not forget how that man was cookin' in his last playoff game 🔥#Titanspic.twitter.com/GO87jWfc0s

— c 🪐 (@InIt4TheKicks) February 13, 2025

They would definitely be getting ahead of it, though. I say two years because he was playing at a very high-level last season. Despite all odds, he still makes a lot of elite throws. His arm strength was formerly the stuff of legends, and it's still impressive. And outlierish levels of certain skills help players stay relevant for longer.

He probably has one more good year left in him, if he stays with the Rams or goes to a competent offense.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, New York Jets 

Well he was awful last season and he's 41 years old, so it's beyond time to fade him.

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