The Outsiders: Deeper Pitching Prospects to Know for Dynasty Leagues

Welcome the latest update of The Outsiders, where I highlight pitching prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

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Overview

This week, I'll be introducing a new metric to help dig for some more names for your deep dynasty leagues. I call it "Zone Dominance". Zone Dominance blends a pitcher's Swinging Strike% with his Strike%. In other words, his ability to locate pitches in the zone (Strike%) with his ability to dominate hitters (Swinging Strike%). The resulting metric is indexed so that 100 = average, and each digit above or below average represents a 1 percentage point change in ability.

I'll also include my personal ERA estimator "EstRA". EstRA estimates what a pitcher's ERA would be based solely on the three outcomes that he has the most control over: K%, BB%, and GB%.

Here is the next batch of Outsiders to know for dynasty baseball leagues in 2021, with their stats for each level in 2021:

Spencer Strider, RHP - Atlanta Braves

Current situation:

Spencer Strider has reached Double-A, where his surface stats have ballooned (5.59 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). However, his estimated ERA is a league average 4.12, and his Zone Dominance+ is still intact as well above-average (120). It's been an impressive debut season for young Strider, who has made every iteration of this list so far this year. Also, he's giving me an excuse to make LotR memes:

Jason Bilous, RHP - Chicago White Sox

Current situation:

Jason Bilous makes yet another appearance on the Outsiders list. He was completely dominant in his brief stint at High-A, but his surface stats have tumbled upon his promotion to Double-A ball (5.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP). However, his estimated ERA at Double-A is coming in nearly two runs lower (3.63) and his Zone Dominance is still present (107 ZnDm+) so I believe he's having some bad luck in his transition to Double-A. Continue to monitor Bilous in deeper formats.

Adam Macko, LHP - Seattle Mariners

Current situation:

Adam Macko continues to perform well as a 20-year-old starting pitcher in full season ball. Despite his below-average BB%, Macko has posted an excellent Zone Dominance+ this year (124). That's because his arsenal generates a big amount of whiffs (154 SwStr%+) and he also finds the strike zone at an above average clip (104 Strike%+). I think his above average strike percentage also means that his below average BB% should even out as the season progresses. You can see from the below clip that a key to his success is generating whiffs on a fastball that can live up in the zone with good carry. He combines that with good feel for spinning a breaking ball and burying it low in the zone.

John Doxakis, LHP - Tampa Bay Rays

Current situation:

John Doxakis, the Rays second-round draft choice out of Texas A&M in 2019, has performed well upon his promotion to High-A ball. The 22-year-old has posted a strong Estimated ERA (2.98) and an above-average Zone Dominance+ (110) at the level. He's lost a bit of his extreme strike throwing skill (Strike%+ down to 105 from 116) from Low-A, but that's to be expected as he's adjusting to facing tougher competition. He's a funky left-hander with deception and control, backed-up by a slider that can generate whiffs. In short, he's the kind of weapon that the Rays love to feature in a variety of pitching roles.

Brent Killam, LHP - Los Angeles Angels

Current situation:

Brent Killiam is an undersized lefty that the Angels selected out of Georgetown in the 2019 draft. He has impressed in the 2021 campaign by generating a ton of whiffs in both Low-A (154 SwStr%+) and High-A (155 SwStr%+). This is giving him good Zone Dominance numbers despite his difficulty issuing free passes (4.26 BB/9 in 2021). There's good deception in his delivery, and he shows a feel for both a breaking ball and a changeup as potential out pitches. He also pitches with an intensity and attitude on the bump that is fun to watch:

Jorge Juan, RHP - Oakland Athletics

Current situation:

Jorge Juan is a 22-year-old righty out of the Dominican that is pitching for the Low-A Stockton Ports to start the 2021 campaign. Juan is a physically imposing figure on the mound, standing 6'8" and looking larger than his listed 200 lbs. He works with a four-seam fastball and traditional 12-to-6 breaking ball from an overhand slot. He will work the four-seamer both up at the letters and down at the knees. He shows good feel for spin with the breaker, generating whiffs when he buries it in the dirt. The whole profile is super intriguing, and I'd be rushing out to grab him in deeper dynasty formats just as an upside play.

Brandon Williamson, LHP - Seattle Mariners

Current situation:

Brandon Williamson has been promoted to Double-A Arkansas, where his garish surface line over four starts (7.11 ERA, 1.68 WHIP) is probably leading some owners to dropping him from their minors entirely. Well, I'm here to tell you that Williamson has not been that bad. His estimated ERA of 4.30 is basically league-average, and he's been above average in Zone Dominance at Double-A (105) because of his ability to throw strikes and get whiffs. He's got a great frame and has a good feel for locating both his fastball and changeup. Don't give up on him:

Darius Vines, RHP - Atlanta Braves

Current situation:

Darius Vines is a new addition to the Outsiders list. He was selected by the Braves in the 7th round of the 2019 draft out of Cal State Bakersfield. He's pitched 59 innings in 13 starts across Low and High-A ball in 2021. Vines popped on my radar with his elite Zone Dominance+ rate in Low-A this year (121). That number has backed-up a bit in High-A (104), but Vines continues throwing strikes at an above-average level. He's a bit undersized, but shows good feel for a diverse arsenal of pitches, including manipulating his breaker into different shapes. He's also shown an above-average changeup. He could work as a crafty and deceptive right-handed starter:

Josh Winder - RHP, Minnesota Twins

Current situation:

Josh Winder, a 24-year-old righty, has worked himself up to Triple-A this year based on a dominant 10-start run at Double-A to start the season. Winder has shown excellent strike-throwing ability throughout his professional career, as evidenced by a career MiLB WHIP of 0.99. Zone Dominance+ has loved Winder at both Double-A (120) and Triple-A (119) this season. He can pound the zone and attack hitters with stuff that's good enough to generate swings and misses. Here he fizzes a four-seam fastball with great jump and carry at the top of the zone:

Tommy Romero, RHP - Tampa Bay Rays

Current situation:

Righty Tommy Romero was initially drafted by the Seattle Mariners. He came over to Tampa Bay in the trade that sent closer Alex Colome to Seattle. Romero has a career 2.40 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in the minors, bouncing between starter and reliever roles. He's popped on my radar with a fantastic performance for Double-A Montgomery this season: a 2.23 EstimatedRA and 120 Zone Dominance+. He's since been promoted to Triple-A Durham, where he's just a phone call away from the Big Club. Another arm dominating the zone with a four-seam fastball that eats up around the letters:

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