The Outsiders: Deeper Pitching Prospects to Know for Dynasty Leagues

Welcome the latest update of The Outsiders, where I highlight pitching prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

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Overview

This is the third update of the 2021 season for the Outsider Pitcher ranks. These rankings focus on a stats-heavy approach. I have created a fantasy-based weighted average called "Outsider+". This average weighs the production for each pitcher that has logged at least 10 innings pitched in 2021. This week, I'll highlight a number of pitchers using their "Outsider+" performance for each level they have appeared at in 2021.

Here is the next batch of Outsiders to know for dynasty baseball leagues in 2021:

Included in the Outsider+ (OUT+) average are the following statistical measures. Each stat is league adjusted so that "100" equates with a league-average performance. Each digit above or below 100 represents a 1% deviation from the average. So, Spencer Strider's 201 K%+ rate was 101 percentage points above the average performance in Low-A East in 2021.

• EstRA+ is a run estimator that uses a pitcher's K%, BB%, and GB% to estimate how many runs he would have allowed given neutral luck.
• K%+ shows what percentage of batters the pitcher struck out.
• BB%+ shows what percentage of batters the pitcher walked.
• GB%+ shows what percentage of balls in play allowed by the pitcher were groundballs.
• SwStr%+ shows the percentages swings and misses a pitcher generated on every pitch that he threw. A companion to K%+ to help measure dominance.
• Strike%+ shows the percentage of pitches that the pitcher threw for strikes. A companion to BB%+ to help measure command.
• GS% shows the percentage of appearances that the pitcher made in a starting role. A measure to determine what role the organization plans on using the pitcher in.

Caleb Kilian - RHP, San Francisco Giants

Current situation:

Caleb Kilian has been promoted to Double-A ball, where he continues to deliver at an above-average level for the league. While Kilian didn't continue on the same absurd level that he was performing at at High-A to start the season, it's encouraging to see him pitching well against more age-appropriate competition. High strikeout stuff has tailed off a bit at Double-A, but he's still pounding the zone, limiting walks, and inducing a good amount of groundballs. Look for him to continue to develop the secondaries at the Double-A level.

Jason Bilous, RHP - Chicago White Sox

Current situation:

Similar to Caleb Kilian, Jason Bilous is an Outsider who dominated against younger competition in High-A ball to start the 2021 season. Bilous had a little bad luck upon his promotion to Double-A, but he's righted the ship over the last few outings. Encouraging signs are that Bilous continues to punch out batters (113 K%+) and generate whiffs (119 SwStr+) despite facing tougher hitting in the Double-A South league. His league-adjusted strike throwing has dropped 10 points though, so be aware that that BB% could drop from it's current above-average level. This 23-year-old Coastal Carolina product has done enough to earn a spot on your watch list in deeper leagues.

Spencer Strider - RHP, Atlanta Braves

Current situation:

Spencer Strider was phenomenal at Low-A, very good at High-A, and has a 1.76 FIP through two starts in Double-A ball. That's two promotions for a pitching prospect that could possibly earn himself a third promotion up to Triple-A if he keeps pitching like this. FanGraphs David Laurila put out a good interview with Strider recently. One thing that stood out to me in that piece was the fact that Strider hasn't used his changeup at all this year. Which is impressive, as his changeup graded out as a future above-average pitch when Strider was in college. He should be owned in dynasty leagues rostering 250 or more minor leaguers.

Peyton Battenfield, RHP - Tampa Bay Rays

Current situation:

Peyton Battenfield is on a similar trajectory to Caleb Kilian and Jason Bilous, earning himself a quick promotion up to Double-A after shoving at the High-A level to open the season. Battenfield is 23-years-old, so Double-A ball should be a good, age appropriate test for him. He's responded very well by following the same blueprint. He throws a lot of strikes and is stingy with the free passes. Battenfield was traded from the Astros to the Rays in the deal that sent RHP Austin Pruitt to Houston. Next thing you know, the Rays have another promising young arm in the upper levels of their farm system.

Brandon Williamson, LHP - Seattle Mariners

Current situation:

Another hurler who got himself promoted to Double-A early on this season. Williamson was unlucky in his first Double-A start (5 innings, 4 ER, .429 BABIP against, 14.3% HR/FB rate), but I think he should be able to settle in and perform just as well at Double-A as he did at High-A to start the year. He did start his Double-A career with an immaculate inning:

Avery Weems, LHP - Texas Rangers

Current situation:

Avery Weems was a part of the haul that the Rangers got back from the White Sox in the Lance Lynn trade. Weems is very old for level (24 years-old at High-A), but his performance throughout his pro career so far deserves your attention. He is abusing hitters at this level, running a swinging-strike percentage 41 points above league average. It's his vexing left-handed funk from a lower armslot, combined with an effective slider as an out pitch. He should get promoted to Double-A any day now.

Ryan Smith, LHP - Los Angeles Angels

Current situation:

Ryan Smith was the Angels 18th round selection in the 2019 draft out of baseball powerhouse (?) Princeton. He's a smaller statured lefty that the Angels have shifted to a starting role for the 2021 season. The experiment is working well so far, earning Smith a promotion to High-A ball already this year. He worked on adding velocity during the lockdown, and it seems to be paying dividends for him so far:

John Doxakis, LHP - Tampa Bay Rays

Current situation:

John Doxakis has earned himself a promotion from Low-A to High-A since our prior update. Doxakis was the Rays' second round pick in the 2019 draft and is on a good path to contribute to the big league club within the next two years. He's a big, funky lefty with a good slider.

Brayan Bello - RHP, Boston Red Sox

Current situation:

The Red Sox have been aggressive with young right-hander Brayan Bello so far this year, pushing him up to Double-A even though he just recently turned 22 years old. Bello has posted a respectable 3.27 ERA through three Double-A starts so far, but his below average EstRA+ of 91 suggests that he's been a little on the lucky side with his results at the level. He continues punching out batters at a solid rate (111 K%+), but he's lost some of his command (66 BB%+). Double-A might be a bit bumpy for Bello the rest of the season, but all-in-all this has been a great year of development for the young hurler.

Blayne Enlow, RHP - Minnesota Twins

Current situation:

Blayne Enlow's strikeout stuff has taken a major leap forward this year, and he's currently running a 146 K%+ that's fully backed by his excellent 147 Swinging Strike%+ mark at High-A ball this year. He seems to be showing a more developed feel for the breaker this year, making it a pitch that's getting both whiffs and called strikes. He's unfortunately shelved with an elbow ailment at the moment, but assuming he comes back healthy he's a must monitor guy for deep dynasty leaguers.

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