The Outsiders: Deeper Pitching Prospects to Know for Dynasty Leagues

Welcome the debut of a new recurring piece where I will highlight prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

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Overview

This is the first update of the 2021 season for the Outsider Pitcher ranks. These rankings focus on a stats-heavy approach. I have created a fantasy-based weighted average called "Outsider+". This average weighs the production for each pitcher that has logged at least 10 innings pitched in 2021.

Here is the next batch of Outsiders to know for dynasty baseball leagues in 2021:

Included in the Outsider+ (OUT+) average are the following statistical measures. Each stat is league adjusted so that "100" equates with a league-average performance. Each digit above or below 100 represents a 1% deviation from the average. So, Roansy Contreras's 149 K%+ rate has been 49 percentage points above the average performance in Double-A Northeast in 2021.

EstRA+ is a run estimator that uses a pitcher's K%, BB%, and GB% to estimate how many runs he would have allowed given neutral luck.

K%+ shows what percentage of batters the pitcher struck out.

BB%+ shows what percentage of batters the pitcher walked.

GB%+ shows what percentage of balls in play allowed by the pitcher were groundballs.

SwStr%+ shows the percentages swings and misses a pitcher generated on every pitch that he threw. A companion to K%+ to help measure dominance.

Strike%+ shows the percentage of pitches that the pitcher threw for strikes. A companion to BB%+ to help measure command.

GS% shows the percentage of appearances that the pitcher made in a starting role. A measure to determine what role the organization plans on using the pitcher in.

Roansy Contreras - RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Continues to polish his secondaries while maintaining his fastball velocity in the upper 90s late into games.

Current situation:

Contreras was part of the Pirates haul in the trade that sent Jameson Taillon to the Yankees. He's looking like he might be the gem of what could be a very good trade for the Buccos. Still only 21 years old, Contreras has dominated Double-A hitters in the first month of the minor league season:

Angel Zerpa, LHP - Kansas City Royals

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Command and control lefty continues to develop nasty secondaries from a funky arm slot.

Current situation:

Zerpa was an international free agent signing by Kansas City in 2016. He has checked every box in working his way up the Royals' system so far, and has been excellent in High-A so far in 2021. He's posted a 37:6 K:BB ratio and held opponents to a .176 batting average against in 24.2 innings of work this year. Look for this Venezuelan lefty to force a promotion to Double-A later in the summer if he keeps up this barrage.

Eury Perez, RHP - Miami Marlins

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Front line starter's frame pairs with developing front line starter's stuff to produce a...future front line starter!

Current situation:

Eury Perez is still only 18 years old, but the Marlins have aggressively pushed him to a full season debut. Perez has responded to this aggressive assignment with aplomb. His fastball has touched 97 mph this season despite the fact that he's still clearly filling out his 6'8" frame. As he matures and develops, he might be sitting around 97 mph deep into games. He's working on the secondaries, but he flashes the ability to spin the curveball with an improving changeup that he's already willing to trust in important spots. The sky is literally the limit here.

Tekoah Roby, RHP - Texas Rangers

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Athletic righty with lots of projection who continues adding velocity as he matures.

Current situation:

Tekoah Roby was the Rangers' 3rd round selection out of the Florida high school ranks in 2020. He's still only 19 years old, but he's flashed some dominant strikeout potential for the Low-A Down East Wood Ducks so far this season. The Rangers' are managing his workload (only 12 IP through 4 appearances), so he might fly under the radar a bit this year. Still, he definitely needs to be on the Outsider watch list for his future potential.

Jake Eder, LHP - Miami Marlins

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Left-handed craftsman continues to work and improve on his game, developing into a reliable rotation piece for the Marlins.

Current situation:

Jake Eder was selected by the Marlins in the 2020 draft after his collegiate career at Vanderbilt. Eder, 22, has been pushed by the franchise so far, earning an aggressive assignment to Double-A, where he currently leads the Double-A South League in strikeouts so far in 2021. If he keeps carving through the Double-A competition, a move up to Triple-A by mid-season is likely.

DJ Herz, LHP - Chicago Cubs

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Athletic drop-and-drive delivery allows him to add more velocity to a fastball that already works up in the zone, paired with strong secondaries to make Herz a high-strikeout middle-of-rotation pitcher.

Current situation:

DJ Herz was a prep left-hander taken by the Cubs in the 2019 draft. Still only 20 years old, Herz is younger than his competition in Low-A East. He's been one of the best pitchers in the league so far this year, limiting opposing hitters to a .081 batting average while striking out 15 batters per nine. The organization has him on a strict 60 pitch limit early on this year, so look for him to develop slowly in 2021 as he builds his innings up at the professional level.

Adam Macko, LHP - Seattle Mariners

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Strike-throwing lefty continues to build velocity so that he's able to sit mid-90s by the time he reaches the Bigs.

Current situation:

Macko is a Slovakian-born Canadian left-hander that the Mariners selected with their 7th round pick in the 2019 draft. He's younger than his competition in Low-A West this year. While his surface results (4.42 ERA over four starts) don't look great, my Outsider formula loves his ability to miss bats and generate swinging strikes with his stuff. Watch for his skills to consolidate and his ERA to drop as the season wears on.

Gerardo Carrillo, RHP - Los Angeles Dodgers

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Undersized righty with swing-and-miss stuff that either works in the rotation or as a high-leverage reliever.

Current situation:

Carillo, 22, has shown a high level of dominance in Double-A so far this season, punching out 12.5 batters per nine. He's been limited in innings so far this season, but with each start he's stretching out a little further. Look for the Dodgers to push him as a rotation arm in Double-A this year to see if he's able to handle the workload, with a possible late-season promotion to Triple-A in the cards. He has the repertoire to succeed in a couple roles in the future.

Cole Henry, RHP - Washington Nationals

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Righty with MLB stuff cleans up his delivery and becomes a more consistent strike thrower.

Current situation:

Cole Henry was a first-round talent that the Nationals were able to select in the second round of the 2020 draft. His fastball sits mid-90s and he throws a knee-buckling curveball that should keep hitters off-balance. His changeup is a developing piece, and Henry might benefit from the development of a harder two-plane breaking pitch as well. He's pitching very well for High-A Wilmington so far in 2021, and with continued success we could possibly see him reach Double-A his year.

Michael Burrows, RHP - Pittsburgh Pirates

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Consistent delivery and four-pitch mix helps Burrows develop into a mid-rotation starter for the Pirates.

Current situation:

Burrows was something of an unheralded prep pitcher out of Connecticut in the 2018 draft. The organization has pushed him to High-A to start the 2021 season and Burrows has responded well. He features a four-pitch mix with three different secondaries that can put hitters away, so as he works his way up the ladder he should continue to punch out batters at a solid rate. He has also improved in his control and strike-throwing abilities this year so far, which is another strong step forward in his development.

https://twitter.com/CTD_Sypien/status/1142585020734943232?s=20


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