The Outsiders: Deeper Hitting Prospects to Know for Dynasty Leagues

Welcome to the latest Outsiders update where I highlight prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

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Overview

This week, I'm going to focus on a single metric called "estimated xwOBA" to unearth some new Outsiders for your consideration. xwOBA is a skill-based measure of a hitter's overall productivity, removing defense from the wOBA equation. My estimated xwOBA uses a hitter's Estimated Barrel rate combined with his actual walk and strikeout rates. The resulting measure will strip away the bad BABIP luck and judge the hitter based on his plate approach and his ability to do damage when he makes contact.

Here is the next batch of Outsiders to know for dynasty baseball leagues in 2021:

Travis Blankenhorn, 2B/OF - New York Mets

Current situation:

Travis Blankenhorn has been baseball's version of Johnny Cash's "I've Been Everywhere" man. This year he's played his home games in....Oklahoma City, St. Paul, Syracuse, Tacoma, Minneapolis, and Queens. He has been subject to 15 transactions since March 15, 2021. In the midst of all this mayhem, Blankenhorn performed very well with Triple-A Syracuse in the Mets system, and has managed to appear in eleven games for the Mets this season. His estimated xwOBA and Barrel% numbers suggest that if he could ever get the chance to settle in somewhere, he could really be a productive player at the MLB level.

Edouard Julien, 2B/3B - Minnesota Twins

Current situation:

Edouard Julien is a Quebecois infielder that the Twins scooped up in the 18th round of the 2019 MLB draft out of Auburn. He's come out of quarantine swinging a hot bat, earning himself a promotion up to High-A ball. Despite an ugly looking surface line at High-A so far this year (.231 batting average), Julien has actually been one of the best hitters at the level. Why? Well, he's been subjected to abysmal BABIP luck (.235) but he is pounding the baseball (.269 ISO) and walking more frequently than he's striking out. Positional versatility (he's played 1B/2B/3B/LF so far this year) is another feather in his cap.

Baron Radcliff, OF - Philadelphia Phillies

Current situation:

Baron Radcliff is a big (6'4", 228) left-handed hitting corner outfielder in the Phillies' system. Radcliff was picked in the final (5th) round of the 2020 MLB draft out of Georgia Tech. His father, Vic Radcliff, was a 4th round choice by the Royals in the 1995 MLB draft. Baron has a balanced left-handed swing that is really geared for power. We are talking no doubt, MLB-level juice. Again, the surface line will put you off (.160 batting average!) but remember that he's getting crushed by BABIP (.230) and has walked nearly as frequently as he's struck out this year (48:53 BB:K ratio).

Spencer Steer, 2B/3B/SS - Minnesota Twins

Current situation:

Spencer Steer has been excellent across two levels this season, posting a .401 estimated xwOBA in High-A and then improving on that number even more in Double-A, where he's posted a .438 estimated xwOBA on the back of an incredible 20.5% estimated barrel rate. He's split time between second and third base for Double-A Wichita, but he showed in High-A that he's capable of handling shortstop as well. Steer is one of several Twins' hitters tearing up the competition in the minors this season.

Jose Miranda, 3B - Minnesota Twins

Current situation:

Jose Miranda was recently pushed up to Triple-A where he debuted with a three-homerun outburst in his first game. Miranda, 23, was a Puerto Rican prep selection in the 2016 MLB draft. He's never been a marquee prospect name, but he's looking to change that with his excellent performance in 2021. Very rarely will you see a hitter marry this kind of power (18.2% estimated barrel rate at Triple-A) and contact ability (he's never posted a strikeout-rate above 18% in his minor league career). Also of note is the fact that Jose is the cousin of Lin-Manuel Miranda:

Johan Mieses, OF - Boston Red Sox

Current situation:

Johan Mieses has been promoted to Triple-A where he continues to hit missiles in the Red Sox system. Mieses was an IFA signing by the Dodgers all the way back in 2013. He has posted a combined OPS north of 1.000 between Double-A and Triple-A ball this year. He's driving the ball extremely well while also keeping the strikeouts at a reasonable rate and posting double-digit walk percentages. He also hit a 500-foot dong for the Dominican Republic in their WSBC qualifier in June:

Ryan McKenna, OF - Baltimore Orioles

Current situation:

Ryan McKenna is currently up with the big club in a short-side platoon/4th OF role that he's not really thriving in. However, during his time with Triple-A Norfolk this season, he really appeared to tap into some latent power with an 18.3% estimated barrel rate paving the way for an excellent .429 estimated xwOBA. It can be tough for young players to hit the ground running when they aren't getting regular reps, so maybe we just need something to happen in the Orioles outfield that gives McKenna something like full-time plate appearances. Don't give up on him yet.

Zavier Warren, C/1B/3B - Milwaukee Brewers

Current situation:

Zavier Warren is a multi-talented catching prospect that the Brewers selected out of Central Michigan University in the 2020 MLB draft. He has went absolutely bananas since coming off the 60-day IL and returning to the Carolina Mudcats lineup. Warren has split time between catcher, first base, and third base this year. He's versatile, athletic, and really has a knack for finding the barrel. When I watch his swing, I see an adaptability to his swing plane that suggests that his hit tool could really play above average as he continues his climb as a professional. He is a really exciting prospect that is likely due for a promotion very soon.

Toby Welk, 1B/3B - Baltimore Orioles

Current situation:

Toby Welk, 24, was the Orioles 21st round selection in the 2019 draft. Welk was the 2019 Division III National Player of the Year in college for Penn State Berks. As an unheralded kid from a small school with a R/R corner infield profile, Welk is really going to have to hit to reach the MLB pinnacle. He has really got the job done this year in the Orioles system. He hass been especially productive since his promotion to Double-A Bowie, where his .424 estimated xwOBA and 17.7% estimated barrel rate has him planted firmly on my Outsiders radar.

Hoy Jun Park, SS - New York Yankees

Current situation:

Hoy Jun Park was a free agent signing by the New York Yankees out of South Korea in 2014. Park has long been an excellent defender with an extremely good eye at the plate. He has never had a season in his minor league career where he posted a sub 10.0% walk rate. In 2021, Park has taken a leap forward in his development, showing a knack for the barrel and driving the baseball for in-game power. He's currently destroying Triple-A ball, posting a .423 estimated xwOBA and 13.2% estimated barrel rate, walking as much as he's striking out, stealing five bags, and playing good defense as an everyday shortstop. He looks like the total package!

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