The Outsiders: Deeper Hitting Prospects to Know for Dynasty Leagues

Welcome to the debut of a new recurring piece where I will highlight prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

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Overview

This week's Outsider update will focus on my Estimated Barrel% metric. Estimated Barrel% weighs a hitter's isolated slugging average, home run to flyball rate, and flyball rate to estimate how many Statcast barrels he would have hit at the MLB level. Barrels are defined as batted balls with a minimum expected batting average of .500 and a minimum expected slugging average of 1.500. In short, these are the minor league hitters who have been hitting the tar out of the ball when making contact in 2021.

This week's Outsiders are 1) qualified hitters, 2) aged 25 and under, and 3) sorted by their Estimated Barrel% in 2021 thus far:

Here's a breakdown of each of these 10 Outsiders.

Micker Adolfo, OF - Chicago White Sox

Current situation:

Micker Adolfo has had a long, injury-impacted minor league career. He missed a significant chunk of development time after undergoing Tommy John surgery. However, when he's been on the field, he's always shown flashes of future fantasy-relevant upside. His big time raw power turned the heads of evaluators at batting practice the Arizona Fall League in 2019, and has occasionally popped up for Adolfo during games throughout his pro career. Now 24-years-old and playing at Double-A, he's nearing his last chance to consistently reach that power in games and become a fantasy-relevant prospect for the future.

Marcus Wilson, OF - Boston Red Sox

Current situation:

Marcus Wilson made an appearance on my initial Outsiders hitters board based on his 2019 performance, and now is popping up on the 2021 Outsiders list because he's destroying baseballs so far this year. Wilson, 24, was a 2nd round draft choice of the Arizona Diamondbacks back in 2014. He's playing for Triple-A Worcester this year and has posted an OPS of 1.013 this season. Helping his cause is that he's on the 40-man roster for the Red Sox. He should be owned in all dynasty formats due to the combination of his performance and proximity to contributing at the MLB level this year.

Josh Ockimey, 1B - Boston Red Sox

Current situation:

Josh Ockimey is a left-handed hitting, slugging first-baseman that was a prep pick by the Red Sox in the 2014 draft. While he's been making loud contact when he makes contact this year, the "when he makes contact" is the big sticking point in Ockimey's game. There's no doubt that he can punish mistakes with his big raw power. However, when he's been exposed to above-average pitching like in the Arizona Fall League and at Triple-A, Ockimey has struggled mightily to make contact. He's a watch list guy for now. Look to see if he can figure out a plate approach that works for him this year in Worcester.

Dermis Garcia, 1B/3B - New York Yankees

Current situation:

On the plus side, Dermis Garcia has launched 11 home runs in just 30 games for Double-A Somerset this season. On the minus side, his strikeout rate is 38.5% and is fully supported by an astronomical swinging-strike rate of 20.6% so far this season. Dermis keeps popping up on my lists as he's a hitter that's excellent at driving the ball in the air at productive launch angles, as evidenced by HR/FB% and the rate of his extra base hits that go for home runs (73 home runs vs. 57 doubles in his MiLB career). He just needs to tweak his approach to make some more contact when he swings.

Griffin Conine, OF - Miami Marlins

Current situation:

Griffin Conine appeared on the initial Outsiders list based on his 2019 performance in the Blue Jays organization. He's carried over his hard-hitting ways to the Marlins organization in 2021, posting an Estimated Barrel% of 18.0 and an estimated xwOBA near .400. Conine was well thought of as a college hitting prospect coming out of the 2018 draft. If he can find the right balance between slugging and strikeouts, there's a potential star in the making here.

Izzy Wilson, OF - Los Angeles Angels

Current situation:

Similar to Josh Ockimey higher up on this list, Izzy Wilson isn't making much contact this year, but the contact that he's been making has been highly productive. While his batting average (.189) is shocking, he's also being weighed down by an unrealistically low BABIP (.208) that should rebound as the season wears on. Despite his contact and BABIP struggles, Wilson still has an estimated xwOBA of .393 this year thanks to his raw power and patient approach at the dish.

Johan Mieses, OF - Boston Red Sox

Current situation:

Johan Mieses is a right-handed hitting slugger who was a minor league free agent signing by the Red Sox this offseason. Mieses, 25, has dominated the competition in 2021 thus far, launching 13 home runs and posting a 1.043 OPS across Double-A and Triple-A. He's also been productive without running a high BABIP (.246) or strikeout-rate (sub 20% in 2021). He's a must own in deep leagues where proximity takes on a higher value.

Bobby Bradley, 1B - Cleveland Indians

Current situation:

FINALLY Bobby Bradley has been called-up to replace the struggling Jake Bauers for Cleveland. Bradley was a member of the initial Outsiders list based on 2019 performance. That performance has carried over to 2021, despite what Bradley's surface stats looked like in Triple-A. A .182 BABIP will make any surface-level statistical analysis look like hot garbage, but Bradley has been much the same hitter as he's been throughout his professional career, one that can really drive the ball and will also work counts to get on base.

Aaron Shackelford, 1B/2B - Pittsburgh Pirates

Current situation:

Dirty secret time. These lists are constantly pulling up players that I've never seen play. Aaron Shackleford is a guy I've never even heard of before, let alone watched. He was selected in the 14th round of the 2019 draft out of The Master's University in Santa Clarita, California. So we've now got a player I've never heard of before, and a college I've never heard of before! He was the NAIA player of the year in 2019. Shackelford has a .861 career OPS at the minor league level, and has taken it up a notch in 2021, posting a 17.2% Estimated Barrel rate. He's a very deep league speculative play.

Carter Bins, C - Seattle Mariners

Current situation:

The Mariners are building some solid minor league catching depth, and Carter Bins figures to be a key part of that depth moving forward. Bins, 22, has put together a fantastic performance at High-A so far in 2021, posting an Estimated Barrel rate of 16.6% and an estimated xwOBA of .404 for the Everett AquaSox. The team's 11th round pick in the 2019 draft out of Fresno State should be on your deep league watch list.

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