RADIO
The Open Championship tees off Thursday morning (very EARLY Thursday morning for the North American audience) as the tournament returns to Royal Portrush for the first time since 1951.
Northern Ireland’s Rory McIlroy is the favorite, followed by Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, and Tiger Woods.
McIlroy has two wins, The Canadian Open and The Players Championship, and has finished in the Top 10 in 11 of 14 tournaments this year.
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Johnson won the WGC Championship in Mexico and has finished in the top seven in seven of 14 tournaments.
Rahm has won the Hero World Challenge and the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, which don’t necessarily draw the brightest and best fields, but he tied for third at the U.S. Open and has nine Top 10s in 15 tournaments.
Which brings us to Tiger. Eldrick was in fine form when he won The Masters, but he missed the cut at the PGA Championship before he tied for ninth at The Memorial and 21st at the U.S. Open. Does he have it in him for another big weekend?
The course measures 7,344 yards and is par 71. Will that lead to lower scores? Play some props and find out.
Here are some angles to consider before the first round tees off at 1:35 am ET Thursday.
THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP
OVER/UNDERS
Brooks Koepka OVER 15.5 PAR OR BETTER – The Majors don’t seem to faze the 29-year-old who is now one of the most consistent threats in the biggest tournaments, winning the PGA Championship and finishing second at both The Masters and U.S. Open. Koepka’s scoring average of 69.54 ranks sixth on the PGA Tour.
Justin Rose OVER 69.5 STROKES – Since missing the cut in 2013, Rose has four Top 25 finishes in the past five Open Championships, including a second-place finish last year. He has shot 70 or better in just 12 of 20 rounds during that stretch.
Rory McIlroy OVER 4.5 BIRDIES – This season, McIlroy is averaging 4.38 birdies per round, sixth best on the PGA Tour, but he’s been great at the Open Championship recently. Like Rose, McIlroy also missed the cut in 2013 then won in 2014 and has finished in the top five in 2016, 2017, and 2018. He’s also going to want to give a little something extra with The Open returning to Northern Ireland.
Hideki Matsuyama OVER 69.5 STROKES – Matsuyama’s scoring average this season is 69.80 and has shot 70 or better five times in 20 rounds at The Open Championship.
Tommy Fleetwood OVER 69.5 STROKES – With a scoring average of 69.90, Fleetwood has shot 70 or better five times in 14 rounds at The Open Championship.
Dustin Johnson UNDER 4.5 BIRDIES – This one is a borderline selection, considering that DJ has a birdie percentage of 23.89, which works out to 4.30 birdies over 18 holes. Add in the fact that Johnson has had a hard time putting it all together at The Open Championship, with one Top 10 finish in his past six appearances.
RAPID FIRE
Justin Thomas +0.5 par or better vs. Rory McIlroy – While Thomas isn’t quite at McIlroy’s scoring average (69.13) this year, averaging 69.70 strokes per round, he does come in under par on 26.70% of holes played, which is a little better than McIlroy’s rate of 26.57%. Mix in Thomas scoring better in first rounds than McIlroy (68.79 vs. 69.77) and it’s worth taking Thomas as the underdog.
Jon Rahm +0.5 birdie or better vs. Rickie Fowler – Rahm has a better birdie rate (4.43) than Fowler (4.24) this year so getting an extra half on the side of the underdog is the way to play this one.
Justin Rose +0.5 par or better vs. Tiger Woods – This might be seen as hedging on picking Rose to finish over 69.5 strokes but it’s also a lack of trust in Tiger at this stage of his career. Rose has six Top 10 finishes in a dozen tournaments this year and Woods has four Top 10s in nine tournaments this year.
