The New York Mets Offense: A True Source of Fantasy Baseball Success?

The New York Mets lost their series finale on Thursday at St. Louis, but they are still one of the biggest positive stories so far in 2022. The Mets won 14 of their first 19 games, and only the legendary 1986 team had a better start, at 15-4. New York also won its opening six series for the first time ever.

While the starting pitching has been stellar during the Mets’ early ride atop the National League, the offense has made major strides forward. The team has exhibited a more selective and judicious hitting approach under the guidance of Buck Showalter and a revamped coaching staff, while also being more aggressive on the basepaths.

The results have extended to early-season fantasy baseball offensive trends involving the Mets hitters.

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The Mets Have a New Offensive Mindset

After their first 19 games, the Mets were tied for second in the Majors in OBP (.342) and were third in batting average (.255). Last season, they were 17th in OBP and 20th in batting average. Entering play on Thursday, they also led MLB in hits (163). They had outscored the opposition 89-51 after the first 19 games.

As covered in my recent Fantasy Baseball Insider Report on the Mets, there is a fresh plan of attack under new hitting coach Eric Chavez and assistant hitting coach Jeremy Barnes. This season’s Mets are more patient and discerning at the plate. But they have also been tenacious and opportunistic on the base paths, with third base coach Joey Cora and first base coach Wayne Kirby pointing the way. After 19 games, New York was tied for second in runs scored (89). They were tied for third in steals, with 12. The Mets had ranked 27th and 24th in those categories, respectively, in 2021.

Eric Chavez on leaving the Yankees for the Mets:

“The Yankees were okay with strikeouts and were against contact,” Chavez said. “It wasn’t a good fit for me.” pic.twitter.com/lsgM2qinhZ

— New York Porch Sports (@nyporchsport) January 6, 2022

What fantasy players want to know, is can New York keep up this sort of offensive pace, and what can we project for their top hitters for the rest of the year?

From a team perspective, the potential to remain near the top of MLB in several categories is certainly possible. This is a new regime under Showalter and his coaching staff, with key newcomers on offense brought in over the last two seasons since Steve Cohen assumed ownership. The 2022 Mets do not seem to be the same underachievers from recent seasons in terms of philosophy and culture. While we always heavily crunch the numbers fantasy-wise, the impact of a refreshed mentality under the new staff does play a role in forecasting the team and its players for the rest of the year.

We examine what we have seen from the Mets’ top batters so far this season, and consider their fantasy outlooks going forward.

An In-Depth Fantasy Examination of the Mets Hitters

Starling Marte: He is an ideal fit in the second spot in the batting order, and anyone who was concerned about his stolen base output falling off in a major way in his age 33 season overrated that number. Marte excels because of his technique and savvy on the base paths. He is just not simply reliant on pure speed.  Last year, Marte’s Sprint Speed of 28.4 was outside the Top 100 in MLB. So far this year, his Sprint Speed is at 27.6. With the hard-charging base running approach, we could see 90-plus runs scored from Marte this season with close to 35 steals. Consider that he is hitting .237 as of now, over 50 points below his career average. We should expect him to hit .around .275 with 12 to 15 homers.

Starling Marte continues to make things happen. A single, a stolen base (he has three on the season) and an error, then a dash home on a ball that only trickled several feet from home plate.

We used to call these Reyes Runs. Taking suggestions...

Mets 1, Giants 0, bottom one. pic.twitter.com/OFM6GIKGhP

— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) April 19, 2022

Pete Alonso: You know what we will likely get from Alonso in terms of home runs and batting average. But he could also provide his most runs scored and RBIs since his rookie campaign. Totals of 110 RBIs and over 100 runs scored are possible. This season’s lineup could certainly boost Alonso in those categories, as the coaches will not hesitate to send runners home, and he has Marte and Francisco Lindor hitting ahead of him for RBI goodness.

Francisco Lindor: He has not done much of anything different in terms of his mechanics at the plate. As Lindor told me last week in the aforementioned Insider Report, he is simply getting better results. The Launch Angle of 13.1, Barrel% of 7.7, and Exit Velocity of 88.7 are right in line with what we have seen from him in the past. But Lindor is a great example of how selective this team has been at the plate, as his Z-Swing% of 63.9 is a career low, as is his Swing% of 44.8. Even after a hot start, his XBA of .297 betters his BA of .273 and the xSLG is at .527 while the SLG is .494.

Lindor is pressing less and being more patient at the plate, and we should see him get back to a .280-plus average with close to 30 homers again while approaching 100 runs scored. The rebound season is definitely here for those who drafted him at an NFBC Average Draft Position of 51.0.

Eduardo Escobar: Escobar is hitting .269 with nine runs scored and one home run. He has five RBIs so far. His xBA is .232, but he should settle in the .250 range. He does have a career-best 36.0 Hard Hit Rate and the Launch Angle is at 22.8, just above his previous career high of 20.8 from last season. Escobar has a career-low O-Swing% of 29.4 so far this season and the Swing% of 43.9 is also his lowest ever. Escobar has taken to the team mantra of being more selective at the plate, which could ultimately mean he doesn’t approach 28 homers again, but he should still be good for more than 20 when the long balls start coming from him more frequently.

Jeff McNeil: McNeil told reporters that in his quest to bounce back this season, he watched a lot of video of his 2018 campaign, when he ascended to the Majors and hit .329 in 63 games. In his first 18 games this year, he has hit .328 with 11 runs scored and seven RBI. The XBA is .286 but he should still finish near .300 over the long term. McNeil is another guy who is being more judicious, as is the team mindset, with career lows in O-Swing% (29.1) and Swing% (51.6). He may hit 12-plus homers, and he can help your team's batting average while scoring 80-plus runs as he gets on base often. You’ll take that from a middle infielder who was drafted as mostly an afterthought.

Brandon Nimmo: As always, staying healthy is the key for Nimmo, an OBP standout who does fit very well on this 2022 edition of the Mets that has taken early to what Chavez and company are advising. Nimmo can finish with about a .270 average with 15 home runs, but hitting atop this season’s lineup could lead to an easy career high in runs scored. His previous mark was 77 when he played 140 games in 2018.  Nimmo does have a career-best 11.1 Barrel% so far this year. That is a promising number in terms of him finishing with a good batting average while ultimately reaching the new career bests in runs and getting close to the 17 homers he hit in 2018.

Mark Canha: He is hitting a cool .333 so far, but the xBA is .277, which is not bad at all, but Canha has just three runs scored and six RBIs. Canha is going to be a better real-life player for the Mets and if he hits .260 with 15 homers you should be satisfied with him as one of your complementary outfielders. He actually has yet to record a single Barrel in 14 games played.

More Mets insights to mull over: James McCann, who is hitting .194, does have an xBA of .240, and he could finish in that range with 10-12 homers. He is not going to be replaced, because McCann is highly valued as a handler of the pitching staff and as a defensive catcher. … Robinson Cano won’t be cut soon because he is regarded as a strong clubhouse guy, but he could start losing playing time at DH soon. Keep a watch on who could earn more at-bats at his expense, whether it’s Dominic Smith or J.D. Davis. There has been actual talk of Smith being sent down when roster trimming happens after the upcoming weekend series vs. Philadelphia, but he could produce well enough with more frequent at-bats.

According to the New York Post, the Mets may want to keep Travis Jankowski for his defense and speed when rosters have to be reduced from 28 to 26 on Monday. Taking Smith off the MLB roster could be a move that would elicit a lot of questioning externally, and Smith is also seen as a positive presence in terms of team chemistry.

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