X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

The Most Profitable Pitchers of the Last Five Years

If you missed last week’s column on the most profitable hitters of the last five years, you can find it here.

That post explains the methodology behind this work, and acknowledges the considerable help I received from colleagues throughout the process.

Today I'm here to take a look at the pitchers - players who have offered fantasy owners the greatest return on investment since the 2013 season

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Single-Season Leaders

2013: Hisashi Iwakuma, $23.96 ($28.10 AV | $4.14 EV)

Iwakuma’s first full season in the Mariners’ rotation resulted in a fantastic performance (14 W, 2.66 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 185 K). This showing provided roughly equivalent value to fantasy owners as Cliff Lee, Yu Darvish, and Adam Wainwright. All three of those pitchers were top-50 picks by ADP, while Iwakuma barely cracked the top 250.

2014: Johnny Cueto, $34.39 ($41.50 AV | $7.11 EV)

Cueto had a career season in 2014, winning 20 games with sparkling ratios (2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP) and nearly a strikeout per inning over an NL-high 243 2/3 frames. Despite his success in 2011 – 12, an injury-shortened 2013 scared owners off and made him a bargain in the 14th round of standard league drafts. This year, an injury-shortened 2017 has Cueto’s ADP in the 12th round. Hmmmm…

2015: Jake Arrieta, $38.05 ($51.20 AV | $13.15 EV)

No surprise here; we all remember how fantastic Arrieta was in 2015. His 2014 breakout had caught owners’ attention enough to make him a seventh-round pick and the #21 starting pitcher off the board that year. Those who made the investment were rewarded with the most valuable pitcher performance in fantasy baseball over this five-year sample. Shout out to Dallas Keuchel, whose 2015 was one of only three pitcher seasons to deliver at least $30.00 in profit during that time – Arrieta and Cueto, of course, being the others.

2016: Rick Porcello, $27.44 ($29.1 AV | $1.66 EV)

In the future, scientists will study Porcello’s 2016 season and be baffled by how a mediocre pitcher came out of nowhere to win a Cy Young. His 22 victories (tied with Arrieta the prior season for the most in the last five years) were a driving force behind his value, but Porcello also posted tidy ratios (3.15 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) and a respectable 189 strikeouts over 223 innings.

2017: Luis Severino, $27.63 ($28.20 AV | $0.57 EV)

In this sample, there have been 42 pitcher seasons that returned at least a $25.00 actual value. Along with Porcello the prior year, Severino’s 2017 is one of the only two which came from a pitcher drafted outside the top 300. If you want the Yankees’ young ace for 2018, you’ll need to pony up a third-round pick.

 

2013 – 2017 Leaders

5. Chris Sale, $27.79 ($139.20 AV | $111.41 EV)

Sale has only been drafted outside the top 10 starting pitchers once in the last five years (17th in 2013) and has been top 5 in each of the last three. It’s tough to turn a profit at such a high draft cost, but Sale has managed to do so. Only Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer have produced more value than Sale over the last five seasons.

4. Zack Greinke, $35.47 ($120.60 AV | $85.13 EV)

Greinke would rank even higher here if not for his injury-marred 2016, in which he finished about $18.00 in the red. He’s fifth in actual value over the five-year sample anyway, and has turned a profit in every season besides 2016.

3. Jake Arrieta, $46.30 ($108.70 AV | $62.40 EV)

Almost all Arrieta’s profit margin came in his incredible 2015 season; he’s actually underwater the last two years. At his current price, though, he’ll turn a slight profit even if he just maintains last year’s level of production. Of course, he doesn’t have a team yet.

2. Max Scherzer, $47.78 ($172.00 AV | $124.22 EV)

Outside of 2014, when he essentially broke even, Scherzer turned a profit for his owners every year in this sample. Over those five years, he leads all pitchers in innings, wins, and strikeouts, while ranking fifth in ERA and second in WHIP. He’s obviously been priced like an ace for most of that time, but he’s stayed healthy and maintained that elite production throughout. That’s been enough for him to make an appearance on this list.

1. Corey Kluber, $50.35 ($123.70 AV | $73.35 EV)

Kluber accumulated the bulk of his surplus value in 2014 and 2017, his two Cy Young seasons. He also finds himself on this list thanks to finishing on the positive side of the ledger in all but one season. That was 2015, wherein a lack of run support and some crappy luck led to a 9-16 record for Cleveland’s ace. Kluber’s typically excellent ratios and high strikeout total kept him within spitting distance of earning his draft cost anyway.

 

More 2018 MLB Advice and Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Vince Williams Jr.43 mins ago

Returning On Monday
Coby White48 mins ago

Tagged As Probable For Monday
Josh Giddey52 mins ago

Doubtful For Monday
Gary Trent Jr.56 mins ago

Cleared For Sunday
Scotty Pippen Jr.1 hour ago

Listed As Questionable For Monday
Ja Morant1 hour ago

Won't Play Monday
Aaron Nesmith1 hour ago

Questionable Versus Minnesota
Tyrese Haliburton2 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Monday Night
Michael Tonkin2 hours ago

Will Open Season On IL
Aaron Wiggins2 hours ago

Returns To Action Against Bucks
Michel Otañez2 hours ago

Michel Otanez Shut Down From Throwing
Myles Turner2 hours ago

Questionable Against Minnesota
Kyle Kuzma2 hours ago

Ready To Play Sunday
Pascal Siakam2 hours ago

Won't Play On Monday
Damian Lillard2 hours ago

Good To Go Sunday
Giannis Antetokounmpo2 hours ago

Available Against OKC
Brandon Marsh2 hours ago

Exits Early Sunday
Andrew Wiggins2 hours ago

Iffy For Monday's Game
Zion Williamson2 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Monday
Royce Lewis2 hours ago

Expected To Begin 2025 On IL
NFL2 hours ago

Ryan Stonehouse Signs With Dolphins
Sam Darnold2 hours ago

Could Opt-Out After One Season
Luguentz Dort3 hours ago

Will Miss Sunday's Game
Chet Holmgren3 hours ago

Ready For Action Sunday
Mark Andrews3 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Cut
Jalen Williams3 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Mike Conley3 hours ago

Resting Against Jazz
Kenyon Martin Jr.3 hours ago

Out On Sunday
Igor Shesterkin4 hours ago

Remains In Rangers Crease Sunday
John Gibson4 hours ago

Still Out On Sunday
Nick Bjugstad4 hours ago

Returns For Utah Sunday
Filip Chytil4 hours ago

Questionable For Sunday
Jiri Kulich4 hours ago

In Concussion Protocol
Adam Pelech4 hours ago

Out On Sunday
Zach Hyman5 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Bailey Falter5 hours ago

Ready To Go For Monday
Yu Darvish5 hours ago

Dealing With Fatigue
Clarke Schmidt5 hours ago

Won't Start On Monday
Mark Leiter Jr.5 hours ago

Should Be Ready For Opening Day
David Bednar5 hours ago

Not Officially Named Closer
Yoán Moncada5 hours ago

Yoan Moncada Could Land On Injured List
NFL6 hours ago

Keith Taylor Signs With Falcons
NFL6 hours ago

Storm Norton Back With Atlanta
Ronnie Rivers6 hours ago

Re-Ups With Rams
Mason Adams7 hours ago

Diagnosed With Flex Strain
Joey Gallo7 hours ago

White Sox Release Joey Gallo
Sean Burke7 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Jung Hoo Lee7 hours ago

Expected To Remain Sidelined For A Few Days
Max Kepler7 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday After Collision
Eiberson Castellano8 hours ago

Could Win Bullpen Job
Kyle Freeland8 hours ago

Rockies Name Kyle Freeland Their Starter For Opening Day
Royce Lewis8 hours ago

Exits Early On Sunday
Ramón Urías8 hours ago

Ramon Urias Expected To Return On Thursday
Emmanuel Rivera8 hours ago

Dealing With Sore Shoulder
Ronny Mauricio8 hours ago

Won't Play In Spring Training Games
New York Jets9 hours ago

Derrick Nnadi Signing With Jets
Washington Commanders9 hours ago

Eddie Goldman Joins Commanders On One-Year Deal
Cooper Rush9 hours ago

Agrees On Two-Year Deal With Ravens
Baltimore Ravens12 hours ago

Ben Cleveland Remaining With Ravens
Seattle Seahawks12 hours ago

Shemar Jean-Charles Signing With Seahawks
Velus Jones Jr.12 hours ago

Signs With Saints
Christopher Bell13 hours ago

Quest For Four Wins In A Row Just Got More Difficult
Kyle Larson13 hours ago

Should Contend For Another Win At Las Vegas
Ryan Blaney13 hours ago

Once Again The Chalk DFS Pick At Las Vegas
Ross Chastain13 hours ago

Fastest In Practice At Las Vegas
Chris Buescher14 hours ago

Has Sneaky Upside This Weekend
Quinton Byfield14 hours ago

Scores In Sixth Straight Contest
Chase Elliott14 hours ago

May Be A Sneaky DFS Option For Las Vegas Lineups
Artemi Panarin14 hours ago

Extends Point Streak To Eight Games
Pyotr Kochetkov14 hours ago

Shuts The Door On Flyers On Saturday
William Byron14 hours ago

Expect William Byron To Compete For The Win At Las Vegas
Tyler Reddick14 hours ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Las Vegas
Anthony Cirelli14 hours ago

Strikes Twice On Saturday
Denny Hamlin15 hours ago

Could Denny Hamlin Be A Quality Driver For DFS At Las Vegas?
Alex Ovechkin15 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Connor Dewar15 hours ago

Scores Twice On Saturday
NASCAR15 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Could Be A Solid DFS Option For Las Vegas
Brad Keselowski15 hours ago

Qualifies Deep In The Field For Las Vegas
Erik Jones15 hours ago

Is Erik Jones Worth Rostering At Las Vegas This Week?
Daniel Suarez15 hours ago

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Daniel Suarez At Las Vegas?
Carson Hocevar15 hours ago

Showcases Speed And Can Be Worth Rostering At Las Vegas
Ryan Preece16 hours ago

Is Ryan Preece A DFS Fade For Las Vegas Lineups?
Joey Logano16 hours ago

Likely To Lead At Las Vegas, But Will He Lead Enough For DFS Consideration?
Michael McDowell16 hours ago

Wins Spire Motorsports' First Pole At Las Vegas
Austin Cindric16 hours ago

Qualifies Third But Is Almost Guaranteed To Lose Spots
Chase Briscoe16 hours ago

Las Vegas Performance Hard To Predict
Ty Gibbs16 hours ago

A Solid DFS Option In Theory
Shane Van Gisbergen17 hours ago

Too Inexperienced At Las Vegas For DFS Consideration
Jordan Mason23 hours ago

Vikings Acquire Jordan Mason From 49ers, Sign Him To Two-Year Deal
Dee Eskridge1 day ago

Sticking With Dolphins
JuJu Smith-Schuster1 day ago

Returning To Chiefs
Tennessee Titans1 day ago

Chidobe Awuzie Released By Titans
Parris Campbell1 day ago

Headed To Dallas
Jiri Kulich1 day ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury Saturday
Tyler Myers1 day ago

Set To Return Against Blackhawks
Nikita Kucherov1 day ago

Good To Go Against Bruins
Yegor Chinakhov1 day ago

Rejoins Blue Jackets Lineup Saturday
Joel Armia1 day ago

Expected To Return On Saturday
Brady Tkachuk1 day ago

Available Saturday
Adam Fox1 day ago

Ready To Rejoin Rangers Lineup
Philadelphia Eagles1 day ago

Patrick Johnson Rejoins Philadelphia
Los Angeles Rams1 day ago

Larrell Murchison Back With The Rams
Kirk Cousins1 day ago

Set To Receive Roster Bonus
Aaron Rodgers1 day ago

Wants To Play In Minnesota
Eeli Tolvanen2 days ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Roman Dolidze3 days ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori3 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani3 days ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos3 days ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez3 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson3 days ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear3 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Brendson Ribeiro3 days ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Diyar Nurgozhay3 days ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
MMA3 days ago

Seung Woo Choi In Dire Need Of Victory
Kevin Vallejos3 days ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 104
Jacob Bridgeman4 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard4 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips4 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith4 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Sahith Theegala4 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick5 days ago

A Shaky Play Heading Into PLAYERS
Scottie Scheffler5 days ago

Eyeing Three-Peat At TPC Sawgrass
Aldrich Potgieter5 days ago

A Risky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Si Woo Kim5 days ago

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At The PLAYERS
Denny McCarthy5 days ago

Looks To Continue Solid Play At TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa5 days ago

Poised For Another Strong Performance At TPC Sawgrass
Robert MacIntyre5 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At The PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth5 days ago

Looking To Change Fortunes At TPC Sawgrass
Cameron Young5 days ago

Avoid Cameron Young At The PLAYERS Championship
Michael Kim5 days ago

Continues Incredible Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Justin Thomas5 days ago

Looking For More Magic At TPC Sawgrass
Xander Schauffele5 days ago

Continues Competitive Return At The Players Championship
Rory McIlroy5 days ago

Looks To Reverse Recent History At TPC Sawgrass
PGA5 days ago

Victor Hovland Looking To Find Form At The PLAYERS Championship
Brian Harman5 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At The PLAYERS Championship
Min Woo Lee5 days ago

A Hard Name To Trust At The Players Championship
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF