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The Mighty Fall: Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez

2015 marked a changing of the guard at shortstop, as the top three players at the position in offensive value (per Fangraphs) were rookies. In fourth place? Second-year man Xander Bogaerts, aged 23. The rise of youth dovetailed with the precipitous decline of two long-time fantasy stalwarts: Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez. Along with fellow veteran Troy Tulowitzki, those two were regular top-tier options at short for the better part of the past decade. As each enters his age-32 season, should fantasy owners anticipate a rebound? Or was this the beginning of the end?

Reyes has averaged 40 steals per season over his career, but finished with just 24 last season. He slashed .274/.310/.378; all were the worst marks he'd posted in a decade. His chase rate was a career high, contact rate a career low. When he did make contact, it was of poorer quality than ever before. No qualified hitter posted a higher pop-up rate. He was traded at the deadline from the Blue Jays (who immediately forgot how to lose until they ran into the Royals in the ALCS) to the Rockies (who have forgotten how to win). And to top it all off, he was just arrested for domestic violence and his case will serve as the first test of MLB's new policy. Introduced in August, it gives the commissioner broad powers to discipline players whether they're convicted or not, with no minimum or maximum parameters for punishment.

Not a pretty picture. Ramirez's year was, perhaps, even worse.

It didn't start out that way. Ramirez hit 10 homers in April and finished the month with a .999 OPS, helping the Red Sox to a 12-10 record despite awful showings from the pitching staff.  A few days into May, he suffered a shoulder injury that appeared to hamper him for the remainder of the year. He hit just nine home runs from that point on, slumping to a .249/.291/.426 overall line. Combined with his disastrous defense in left field, Ramirez was worth nearly two wins below replacement level in the first season of a four-year, $88 million contract.

Boston can't put him back in left field without inciting a riot, and with fellow albatross Pablo Sandoval entrenched at third and David Ortiz refusing to age at DH, they'll have to stick Ramirez at first base unless they can find a trade partner. So for those scoring at home, he'll be learning a new position for the second straight year and coming off a major injury. Oh, and he's no longer eligible at shortstop.

Most fantasy owners will, perhaps prudently, steer well clear of either player in 2016 drafts. Yet each represents an intriguing opportunity if the price is right. Pending the disciplinary results stemming from his arrest, Reyes will hit near the top of a Rockies order that includes Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, and Charlie Blackmon. He should score a decent amount of runs, and the spacious outfield at Coors ought to allow for plenty of extra-base hits. Steamer agrees, projecting a .299/.344/.423 line with 11 homers and 25 steals. Even with the new blood at shortstop, that's quality production at the position.

As for Ramirez, the loss of shortstop eligibility certainly hurts. But as awful as he was last season, it seems fair to attribute much of that to the shoulder injury. He rushed back and it never quite healed. The Ruthian home run pace was never going to last, but his performance out of the gate seemed to vindicate those who anticipated a big year from him with the luxury of playing half his games in Fenway. And over the prior two seasons, Ramirez put up a .308/.382/.525 with 33 homers, 24 steals, and 254 R+RBI in just 848 plate appearances. Steamer doesn't quite see him getting back to that level, but his projection (.284/.345/.475, 19 homers, eight steals) would make him a useful player in most formats.

There's plenty of risk involved with either guy, considering the circumstances. But given that both will likely come cheaper than they ever have, fantasy owners might be well served to roll the dice.

 

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