X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

The Grass Isn't Always Greener - NFL Free Agents Who Will Decrease in Value

There was major shake-up with NFL Free Agency this offseason, particularly at the running back position. When you think about team’s infuriating commitment to RBBC, all of the running backs that have been on the move in 2017 make sense. From a fantasy perspective though, it just makes it that much harder for owners to determine which backfields to buy in to.

There aren’t too many backfields where one player resolutely gets the lion's share of the carries, but these situations seem particularly precarious for these RB free agents.

Here's a look at some free agent runners that could see a decline in fantasy value for the 2017 season:

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Free Agents in Worse Situations for 2017

Adrian Peterson (RB, NO)

Peterson has proven time and time again that he is not the one you want to count out. His heavily chipped shoulder in the past has only led to exceedingly transcended expectations and rushing titles. Even though Peterson will once again be playing with a Hall-of-Fame caliber quarterback for the first time since 2009, the prospects of another bounce back fantasy season are a lot less favorable heading into the upcoming season. For the first time in his career, he will be a part of a system that is unapologetically pass-first, and his ground and pound game might not ever get the chance to take flight.

Of the Saints 69 possessions per game last year, Drew Brees passed the ball an average of 42 times, amounting to 62% of the offense. In 10 out of their 16 games Brees attempted at least 41 passes and topped 50 twice, and this has been the Saints’ formula since the beginning of the Sean Payton-Brees era. The team's second-to-last ranked points defense did the running game no favors, and airing it out became the only way that the Saints could stay in games. With indiscriminate splits across the board there was no telling which member of the backfield the touches would go to, and more often than not the team had to abandon the run by the fourth quarter.

It can be argued that without Brandin Cooks, and with what on paper looks to be an improved defense, the Saints could pass less this season. Even if this is the case though, this year’s Saints backfield is more convoluted than it’s been in the past, and there is no clear path or precedent for Peterson to come in and dominate touches. Even if incumbent Mark Ingram is unseated, he won’t be phased out completely. Despite receiving the brunt of Payton’s vitriol and spending stretches of quarters and games in the dog house, Ingram managed to have his most complete year in the league and eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. Add to this year’s mix the 3rd round draft pick Alvin Kamara. Even without a clearly defined role, he will undoubtedly make a push to find a place in in Payton’s system.

Serving as at best, one half of a rushing attack that only claims a 37% stake in the offense, there are no guarantees on how Peterson will be able to establish himself in NO. Peterson will always be AD and he will be a definite part of whatever the Saints intend to do this year, but the elite fantasy production that we have seen for so many years will take a devastating hit.

 

Latavius Murray (RB, MIN)

Peterson’s former team, the Minnesota Vikings will also be rolling out a new look backfield this year. Despite the fact that he is coming off of a career-best 12 touchdowns, expectations on what Murray will achieve with his new squad look dire even in the best light. Last year Murray was a part of an Oakland offense that was ninth-best in the league, and ran behind the fourth-ranked offensive line. Even with the two free agents and two draft picks that the Vikings have added to reupholster an o-line that was ranked 29th last year, Murray left an offense that is very clearly going in the right direction for a team that could continue struggle to move the ball downfield.

Murray will also become a part of a crowded committee with some very talented backs. While Jerick McKinnon is the only notable back to return to the Vikings from last year, Murray could be susceptible to becoming the third running back on the depth chart at any point during the season. McKinnon might lack the prototypical shape of a between-the-tackles back like Murray, but he has certainly carved a role for himself and is someone whose hands the Vikings will want to get the ball in. In addition, the Vikings traded up and gave up a fourth rounder to secure Dalvin Cook. While his adjustment to the NFL remains to be seen, it is clear that the Vikings value their second round pick and will want to throw as much action at him as he can handle in his rookie season.

With two rookies snapping at his heels in Oakland, Murray still only managed to have a small handful of really big games. Even with his niche on this team as a goal-line back looking somewhat safe for now, can we trust Sam Bradford to get this team inside the 20 coming off of a year when all of the Viking’s offensive drive stats consistently hovered around the very bottom of the league? Murray’s self-proclaimed “nose for the end zone” sentiments sound great and all, but his individual output in Minnesota looks to disappoint owners this year.

 

LeGarrette Blount (RB, PHI)

The inevitable step back that LeGarrette Blount seems to be headed for this year isn’t so much about the other players in the backfield. Quite simply, Blount is leaving a seasoned, grizzled Super Bowl team for one with a second year quarterback that faded down the stretch last year and was left on the outside of the playoffs looking in. No longer subject to Bellitricks, his production might be a little easier to predict, but still won’t be anywhere close to what it was when he was on an offense that had the fourth best touchdown per drive success rate.

While Blount scored 18 touchdowns by himself last year, the Eagles top three running backs combined to reach the end zone only 11 times with Carson Wentz adding two more. With new big body receiver additions and Wentz likely to progress this year, the Eagle’s rushing red zone opportunities might be even lower this year. While Blount is shifting to a backfield with considerably less talent and competition, that crowded backfield in New England was one of the many reasons Blount was able to perform as well as he did. With the constant change of pace and versatility that the Patriot’s backfield threw at opponents on each drive, defenses were often left on their toes reeling for whole drives allowing Blount to come in and effortlessly vulture touchdowns all year.

Before his most recent stint with the Patriots Blount had been middling around the league since his rookie season. It’s not at all unrealistic to think he might return to this form with his new team. Potential Blount owners would be holding on to a dream and will be quickly devastated if they are expecting the same kind of production this year in the Eagles backfield.

 

Peterson's, Murray's, and Blount’s current ADPs, 77, 116 and 73 respectively, more or less reflect the regression that is on the way. Once their teams get back together next month and all of the reports about how well they have been performing in camp start to leak out though, they will probably take a jump. The reality, however, is that there will be less-talented players on the board that will be in much better positions for fantasy success, so make sure you think thrice before pushing the button on this group of running backs.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Luis Severino2 hours ago

Works Eight Innings On Saturday
Chad Patrick2 hours ago

Posts Quality Start In Loss
Brent Rooker3 hours ago

Hits Go-Ahead Homer
TJ Friedl3 hours ago

Has Four-Hit Game
Ramón Laureano3 hours ago

Ramon Laureano Homers Twice Off The Bench
Griffin Conine3 hours ago

Suffers Dislocated Shoulder
Shohei Ohtani3 hours ago

Expected To Be Activated On Sunday
Ben Rice5 hours ago

To Undergo MRI
Heston Kjerstad6 hours ago

Makes Early Exit On Saturday
Jason Heyward6 hours ago

Heading To Injured List
Tirso Ornelas6 hours ago

Recalled On Saturday
David Bednar6 hours ago

Recalled From Triple-A
Mark Vientos6 hours ago

Removed Early On Saturday
Max Pacioretty6 hours ago

Available For Playoffs
Jake McCabe6 hours ago

Available For Sunday's Game 1
Oliver Bjorkstrand7 hours ago

Will Not Play In Round 1
Matthew Tkachuk7 hours ago

Logs Full Practice Saturday
Jonathan Drouin7 hours ago

Available For Game 1
Miro Heiskanen7 hours ago

Upgraded To Day-To-Day
Gabriel Vilardi7 hours ago

Out On Saturday
Jaylen Brown8 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Limited On Sunday
Christian Vázquez9 hours ago

Christian Vazquez Moves Past Hand Injury
Willi Castro10 hours ago

Remains Sidelined With Oblique Injury
Austin Wells10 hours ago

Back In Action On Saturday
Gabriel Arias10 hours ago

Lane Thomas Sitting On Saturday
Josh Smith10 hours ago

Back In Action On Saturday
Martín Pérez10 hours ago

Martin Perez Hits 15-Day Injured List
Jordan Beck11 hours ago

Recalled From Triple-A
Ezequiel Tovar11 hours ago

Placed On 10-Day Injured List
Irv Smith12 hours ago

Houston Re-Signs Irv Smith Jr.
Ja Morant1 day ago

Cleared To Play Friday
Brandon Williams1 day ago

Available Against Grizzlies
Anthony Davis1 day ago

Will Play Friday Night
Gary Trent Jr.1 day ago

Available For Game 1 Against Pacers
Taurean Prince1 day ago

Returns To Bucks Lineup Saturday
NFL1 day ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Waived With Non-Football Injury
Isaiah Stewart1 day ago

To Return For Game 1
Ausar Thompson1 day ago

Available For Game 1
Rui Hachimura1 day ago

On Track To Play Saturday
Austin Reaves1 day ago

Ready To Go For Game 1
NFL1 day ago

Bills Release Armani Rogers, Branson Deen
Luka Dončić1 day ago

Luka Doncic Removed From Injury Report
LeBron James1 day ago

Listed As Probable For Game 1
Ben Sheppard1 day ago

Probable For Saturday's Game 1
NFL1 day ago

Kolton Miller Absent From Raiders' Voluntary Offseason Program
Kevin Durant1 day ago

To Houston Already Losing Steam
Lauri Markkanen1 day ago

Wants To Stay With The Jazz
NFL1 day ago

Ross Blacklock Let Go By New York
Bennedict Mathurin1 day ago

Expected To Play In Game 1 Saturday
Pascal Siakam1 day ago

Available For Playoff Opener
Tyrese Haliburton1 day ago

Returning From Two-Game Absence Saturday
Cade Cunningham1 day ago

Available For Game 1 Against Knicks
Josh Hart1 day ago

Back In Knicks Lineup Saturday
OG Anunoby1 day ago

Good To Go For Game 1
NFL1 day ago

Raiders Considering Drafting A Quarterback
Irv Smith1 day ago

Sticking With Texans
Ryan Lindgren1 day ago

Set To Return Saturday
NFL1 day ago

Texans Expected To Draft Wide Receivers
Greg Dortch1 day ago

Returning To Cardinals
Josh Manson1 day ago

Available For Game 1
Mark Andrews1 day ago

Could Be Traded Soon
Ondrej Palat1 day ago

To Return For Start Of Playoffs
David Savard1 day ago

Will Retire After Playoffs
NFL1 day ago

Raiders, Falcons Could Have Interest In Jalen Ramsey
Robert Thomas1 day ago

Good To Go Saturday
Matthew Tkachuk1 day ago

Expected To Return For Game 1
1 day ago

Raiders Are High On Ashton Jeanty
Jason Robertson1 day ago

Considered Week-To-Week
Rome Odunze1 day ago

To Hopefully Get More Involved
NFL1 day ago

Dolphins Could Draft A Quarterback
James Cook1 day ago

Could Stay Away From Voluntary Workouts
Leon Draisaitl2 days ago

Wins First Rocket Richard Trophy
Nikita Kucherov2 days ago

Bags Third Art Ross Trophy
Bryan Rust2 days ago

Scores Twice In Season-Ending Win
Igor Shesterkin2 days ago

Shuts Out Lightning With 27 Saves
Dylan Cozens2 days ago

Picks Up Three Points In Regular-Season Finale
Matvei Michkov2 days ago

Caps Off Rookie Campaign With Three-Point Effort
Brady Tkachuk2 days ago

Makes Early Exit For Precautionary Reasons
Jake Tonges2 days ago

Signs Exclusive-Rights Tender
Denver Broncos2 days ago

Broncos To Focus On RB Position In Next Week's Draft
Drew Lock2 days ago

Sam Howell, Drew Lock Expected To Compete For Backup Job
New York Giants2 days ago

Giants Leaning Toward Taking Best Player Available At No. 3
New Orleans Saints2 days ago

Ryan Ramczyk Announces His Retirement
Buffalo Bills2 days ago

Tre'Davious White Reunites With Buffalo
Lucas Glover3 days ago

Looks To Rebound After Poor Performance
Daniel Berger3 days ago

Looking To Continue Solid Play At RBC
Sepp Straka3 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At RBC
Justin Thomas4 days ago

Looking To Shake Off Poor Masters At RBC Heritage
Xander Schauffele4 days ago

Still Looking For Year's First Win At RBC Heritage
Maverick McNealy4 days ago

Is An Intriguing Play At RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry4 days ago

Looks To Shake Off Poor Masters Sunday At RBC Heritage
Will Zalatoris4 days ago

Eyes A Bounce-Back At RBC Heritage
Gary Woodland4 days ago

Could Add Some Surprise At Hilton Head
Sam Burns4 days ago

Hoping For Better Times At RBC Heritage
Sahith Theegala4 days ago

Still Trying To Put It All Together
Aaron Rai4 days ago

Might Be That Guy For Hilton Head
Robert MacIntyre4 days ago

All Or Nothing At RBC Heritage
Tom Hoge4 days ago

Still Playing Solid Heading To Hilton Head
Nick Dunlap4 days ago

Continues To Have Rough Stretch
Keegan Bradley4 days ago

Looks To Move On From Masters Performance
Matt Fitzpatrick4 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At RBC Heritage
Patrick Cantlay4 days ago

A Strong Play At RBC Heritage
Jordan Spieth4 days ago

Targets Another Strong RBC Heritage Showing
Collin Morikawa4 days ago

Eyeing Victory At RBC Heritage
Max Homa4 days ago

Breaks Through At The Masters
Alexander Volkanovski5 days ago

Reclaims Featherweight Title
Diego Lopes5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 314
Paddy Pimblett5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Michael Chandler5 days ago

Suffers TKO Loss
MMA5 days ago

Patricio Freire Gets Dominated In His UFC Debut
Yair Rodriguez5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Bryce Mitchell5 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 314
Jean Silva5 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 314
Dominick Reyes5 days ago

Wins Third Fight In A Row
6 days ago

Austin Dillon Nabs His First Top-10 Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
6 days ago

Ryan Blaney's Bold Strategies Fall Flat, Still Musters A Top-Five Finish At Bristol
6 days ago

Christopher Bell Finishes In The Top 10 After Falling Back Midway At Bristol
6 days ago

Ty Gibbs Earns His First Top-Five Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
6 days ago

Chase Briscoe Quietly Scores First Career Top-Five Finish At Bristol
6 days ago

Denny Hamlin Cuts Into William Byron's Points Lead
6 days ago

William Byron Makes Best Of His Mediocre Qualifying Run With Sixth-Place Finish
6 days ago

Despite Engine Failure, Alex Bowman's Improved Speed Looks Promising
NASCAR6 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Enters Playoff Picture With Surprise Bristol Top-10 Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF