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Ellis's NFL touchdown predictions for Week 9 (2023) - his fantasy football TD predictions for six players. “Pie Shop” is an Australian term for scoring a touchdown.
After having no teams on their bye in Week 8, we have three great offenses taking their seasonal breather. I’ll let you guess the three great offenses, with the Lions, Jaguars, 49ers, and Broncos on bye. Last week, was not our best week, finishing with only one correct lock pick.
For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.
We are sticking to this new format. Instead of providing six selections that are uncommon touchdown calls, I will be dividing them into three sections. I will have, a few picks I view to be locks (most likely superstars), two picks that I have decent confidence in (Solid Picks), and two deeper picks (Shots). I will then keep track of my success rate within each section. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week 9 Pie Shop.
Locks (6-3)
Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)
Giants @ Raiders, Sunday 1:25 PM PST
It’s hard to call anyone on this Giants’ team a lock to score a touchdown. However, with Daniel Jones returning this week, the offense will hopefully see an increase in production. Even through all of the Giants’ woes this season, Barkley has been the only stable part of this team when he is healthy.
Last week, in what many are calling the worst game of all time, Barkley saw 36 rushing attempts and three receptions. Although this team didn’t pass the ball, this shows their confidence in Barkley.
This week he faces a Raiders defense that just let Jahmyr Gibbs breakout with 26 carries for 152 yards and a score on the ground, with five receptions for 37 yards in the air. Plus, rookie Aiden O’Connell is under center, potentially giving the Giants the opportunity to play with a lead and run out the clock with Barkley. This is a smash pick for Week Nine and the perfect time for him to open the Pie Shop.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Bills @ Bengals, Sunday 5:20 PM PST
For the first time this season, Diggs is coming off of a “down” week. By down week, I mean he only had nine receptions for 70 yards. Meanwhile, Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, and Khalil Shakir all had great days against the Buccaneers' defense on Thursday Night Football in Week 8. I expect Diggs will be right back to his lead-receiver ways this week.
This week he faces a Bengals team who have been surprisingly solid on defense. Even though I say “surprising," by now we should be accepting that Lou Anarumo knows how to cook up a defensive plan. This is an incredible matchup on Sunday night. Despite the Bengals allowing fewer than one touchdown to the position per game, I think Josh Allen will force the ball to his trusted target. Give me a Diggs touchdown this week and open the Pie Shop for the seventh time this season.
Solid Picks (1-7)
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
Chiefs vs. Dolphins (Germany), Sunday 6:30 AM PST
I’ll be honest, seeing that “1-7” record here is very disappointing. Thankfully, the season is still young and there is plenty of time to bounce back. The first selection this week is Isiah Pacheco against the Dolphins in Germany. This is an incredible game and is an excellent matchup to draw international attention.
Pacheco has increasingly become this team’s workhorse back. Although last week was a down week, it’s not often the Chiefs will be in negative game scripts right from the opening kickoff. The Dolphins are allowing the seventh most yards per game to opposing runningbacks, and average a rushing touchdown per game to the position.
These overseas games typically are more conservative game planning, leading to Pacheco controlling the clock and sustaining drive for this Chiefs team. As a result, he should find the end zone in what should be an offensive shootout.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Bills @ Bengals, Sunday 5:20 PM PST
My second Pie Shop call out of this game is the second receiver on the other side of the ball. As a Bengals fan, I can’t tell you how elated I was to see Joe Burrow performing at the top of his game last week. However, before it’s completely wheels up for this team, a win this weekend could go a long way.
I digress. Higgins is an excellent WR. His big body and contested catch ability are a great complement to Ja’Marr Chase’s all-around explosive talent. I think the Bills will be doing everything they can to limit Chase, who has yet to have fewer than eight targets and 70 yards since Week 2.
The Bills secondary is banged up right now, with linebacker Matt Milano and corner Tre’Davious White both on injured reserve. Despite this, since Week 3 they are allowing the ninth fewest yards to the WR position. I expect Joe Burrow will be cooking once again, finding Higgins in the endzone for the first time since Week 2.
Taking Shots (1-7)
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Vikings @ Falcons, Sunday 10:00 AM PST
What’s the solution for a 1-7 Pie Shop record? Obviously calling for one of the most notorious players that doesn’t score touchdowns to find pay dirt. This week we have Taylor Heinicke under center (thank you, Arthur Smith, better late than never), overall making the offense stronger.
Over the last five weeks, the Vikings have allowed two touchdowns per game to the TE position. That’s wild. Plus, Drake London was banged up last week and may not be fully healthy. The matchup, situation, and QB, make this the perfect week for Pitts to score his fifth touchdown of his career.
Allen Lazard (WR, NYJ) or Tyler Conklin (TE, NYJ)
Chargers @ Jets, Monday 5:15 PM PST
I know, I’m hedging my bet with this one. But hey, I need to get something cooking and want to select a player for Monday night. No, I am not saying both will score, but I am predicting one will. Outside of Garrett Wilson and this runningback room, there really is no consistency on this offense, hence my double selection.
Behind Wilson and Breece Hall, Conklin and Lazard alternate being the third receiving option on this team. This week, they face a Chargers defense that is allowing the most and second most touchdowns to receivers and tight ends, respectively.
This will be a very interesting matchup, with a great defense on one side and a QB with arguably one of the most talented arms in the league. I expect Zach Wilson will need to pass for at least two touchdowns to win this game, and I have a feeling Lazard or Conklin will come down with one.
Thank you for reading my work. Check out my four favorite player prop selections later this week!
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