Early-Season Fantasy Breakouts and Trade Targets: The Engel Eye

There certainly have been some surprising early-season results to review and consider as we move forward. The bye weeks are quickly approaching, so maintaining an optimum lineup and roster will continue to be very challenging. RB injuries have added to the perceived adversity.

Disappointing early-season performances from quality projected starters and unexpected breakouts will only lead to more second-guessing of every roster and lineup move. Don’t drive yourself crazy, though. If certain players with established track records have been good, but not great, keep the faith in them. Those players who have been looking like big busts so far should be benched, but not cut. You likely won’t get proper returns in trades for them in many cases.

If you have guys who are exceeding expectations, see our recommendations on Cordarrelle Patterson below. There are proven approaches to take on players who have either not performed as well as hoped, or are soaring above what we projected. You cannot control their output, but you can control the decisions you make on such players. Make them with confidence, and knowing you did it while being well informed. Much of what we see every week seems unpredictable, yet you should always be comfortable in knowing that you made the best roster and lineup calls possible based on the information and advice that you have gathered.

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Roster Advice and Key Observations

-The Giants surrounded Daniel Jones with more playmakers this season in hopes of a breakthrough campaign. So far, he has exceeded expectations to the point where he is QB6 in fantasy football. In Week 4, Jones passed for a career-high 402 yards. His downfield strikes were pretty impressive, and we must also consider he was without Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton. Saquon Barkley looked healthier this week and the Giants offense has started to provide reasons for optimism. It is still early, but we are getting closer to the point where Jones is going to deserve frequent Fantasy QB1 consideration if he maintains his levels of play in the passing game.

Daniel Jones had 9 completions on throws 10+ yards downfield in Week 4

Most among all QBs 🚀 pic.twitter.com/reqDrdoXEc

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 4, 2021

-It is still hard to believe, but Cordarrelle Patterson is fantasy RB3 right now. You might be attempting to trade him, because we have never seen such production from him before and his fantasy appeal may never be higher. When trying to move Patterson, though, you have to gauge if other fantasy players in your league also believe his value may never be higher, either. If you don’t get a desired return for Patterson in a possible trade, it’s just fine to keep him and continue rolling with the results. Patterson was a waiver wire add, and any more outstanding production can only boost your team’s outlook going forward. Consider that he was a free agent pickup, and you have already benefitted very well, with potential for more quality outings ahead.

-Steve Rebeiro of RotoBaller did a very good piece on the latest Josh Gordon outlook here. It’s pretty much on point, and my take is that I am not going to use an important roster spot on him, but if I have the room to stash Gordon, I will take the outside shot. I do wonder if it’s worth wasting any time on this fantasy dance anymore, though, as it has become beyond overdone. Gordon still has the talents to make some contributions for the Chiefs, but I have serious doubts that he will ever produce enough to warrant a spot in fantasy lineups. Gordon looks like an exciting occasional playmaker who will just continue to tease fantasy leaguers who can’t let go. I would not spend too much time speculating on whether he is still an upside stash. I would only roster Gordon if you have a roster spot that is currently being occupied by a player that can easily be cut. If you don’t have the roster room, just move on and don’t sweat it.

-Henry Ruggs III is looking good in his second season, and I want him on my roster as a fantasy WR3. He is improving quickly, and becoming more than just a deep threat. The big play upside, though, is what will continue to elevate his appeal. Derek Carr is going to take big downfield shots with Ruggs every week, and there will be very promising possible results. Ruggs has incredible deep gears and separation speed, and is going to burn a lot of DBs in the weeks ahead. He is a great trade target and I would start locking him into lineups wherever you can for the returns that can possibly help your chances of winning in any given week.

Derek Carr ➡️ Henry Ruggs

This is becoming a common occurrence for the #Raiders.

pic.twitter.com/xV5gb5eDuR

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 5, 2021

-I will say it again -- especially after those who submitted that Tampa Bay has the best offense in the NFC -- the Dallas Cowboys have the best offense in the conference. The Buccaneers have one TD pass in the past two weeks and Dallas has a significantly better running game. CeeDee Lamb’s production, however, has dropped in the last two games. That makes him a very good trade target. Try to acquire him now before he explodes in a very impressive performance that will again confirm the expectations that we all have for him.

-It has become pretty clear that Latavius Murray is now the preferred RB for Baltimore, and Marquise Brown is the main playmaker at WR. No other Baltimore RB is worth rostering and Sammy Watkins, as always, likely won’t provide much while commanding a lot of defensive respect that can only help Brown. As Rashod Bateman gets comfortable, he could cut into Watkins’ mediocre production more, but Brown will likely continue to operate as a quality fantasy WR3 with upside.

-J.D. McKissic will be added in a lot of leagues this week, and Nyheim Hines will be cut. Both RBs, though, are pass-catching specialists, and neither should be added or dropped based on a reaction from the most recent game. Both will be volatile and unpredictable, as many receiving dependent RBs usually are. Both of them get occasional goal-line carries. You should keep McKissic and Hines rostered for depth, especially with the bye weeks soon approaching. But keep in mind that they will be unreliable all year. You should utilize them in situations where you just may not have a better flex option in a given week. Kenneth Gainwell, though, has been a consistent goal-line option for the Eagles so far, and should be a safer play than McKissic or Hines going forward.

-Laviska Shenault Jr.’s six catch, 99-yard outing in Week 4 was quite encouraging. It was directly tied to the best performance of Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season so far. We are seeing some strides forward from some first-year QBs, and in the cases of Lawrence and Zach Wilson, the WRs should continue to benefit going forward. I am expecting Shenault, Marvin Jones, Corey Davis and Jamison Crowder to deliver quality outings in the weeks ahead.

Trevor Lawrence & Laviska Shenault (52 yards)

The pass traveled 49.3 yards in the air, Lawrence's longest completion of his NFL career though his first 3+ games.

🔹 Completion Probability: 23.5%#JAXvsCIN | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/wHPaa0XBgW

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) October 1, 2021

-The Arizona WR situation  will drive us all crazy, and Maxx Williams won’t be consistent at TE, but outside of the top 3-4 guys at the position none are, so he is worth an add. Kyler Murray spreads the ball around a lot, giving all of the pass-catchers upside, but in-game execution is going to dictate where he goes with the ball. You have to treat all of the pass-catchers other than DeAndre Hopkins as boom/bust types. If you need upside, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore and A.J. Green may be worth the risks in any week. Just don't expect much of a statistical floor, I would not rely on Green to keep up his current level of production, though. He can still be productive, but there will be quiet weeks as well. For those concerned about Hopkins, I expect better times ahead for sure and he is a good trade target.

-When making lineup decisions on players listed as questionable, here is the approach to take: If the team decides a player is ready to play and he is active, you should start him unless there are published reports that he will be limited or less than 100 percent. If the team deems him ready to go, get him in your lineup. If the player was too “banged up”, he would likely not be active. If the team doctors clear a player for action with no solid indications of limitations, you should clear him for your fantasy lineup too. Conversely, if a player’s status is in doubt, always go with the healthy alternative.

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