The Cut List - Who to Drop for Fantasy Football Week 4

Each new week of NFL games gives us more information to make better, more informed decisions. That’s crucial when figuring out who to add and who to cut. It can be difficult to admit we were wrong on a particular player. For example, using a high draft pick on someone and cutting them so early in the season can be demoralizing. However, the only thing worse than making a mistake is not being able to admit we made one in the first place.

Don’t be afraid to make bold decisions, but be careful not to be too reactionary. Bad weeks are going to happen. Sometimes, opportunity doesn’t always translate into box-score success. The flip side of that is true, too. Sometimes, the box score can look amazing despite poor utilization. This article will help you determine who to send packing and how to value players whose value is falling.

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The Parameters

There are a few different categories here. Anyone listed under the “Insert Position to Cut for Insert Week” can be safely cut. Seems pretty self-explanatory, correct? No surprise there. We'll focus on players with rostered percentages higher than 40% to keep this a little more straightforward. Otherwise, we could name many players for every position every week.

The following two categories are “Uh-Oh…” and “On the Hot Seat.” If a player is listed under “Uh-Oh…” that doesn’t mean they’re a cut… yet. It just means their value is falling. That could be due to several reasons. Maybe it’s due to repeated inefficiency. Perhaps it’s due to a change in role and utilization. Whatever the reason, these players are not as valuable today as they were before last week’s games.

The other category is “On the Hot Seat.” This one is also pretty self-explanatory. These players do not need to be cut, although if you’re on the hot seat, there’s certainly an argument to be made that they could be cut if you’re in a tough roster predicament. These players should be given one final shot to make your roster. Especially early in the season, we don’t want to overreact to a change in utilization or a bad week or two, but we also don’t want to ignore it. Players in this section are a bad week away from being on the cut list.

One of the final categories we'll sometimes touch on is "Hold On". These players may have had some bad weeks, but their utilization is good, indicating better days are ahead. Hold on to them.

On occasion, we’ll also identify sell-high and sell-low players. A sell-high player is one whose production has spiked, but maybe their role creates questions about whether the production is sustainable. These players have increased their value recently, so it makes sense to see if you can trade them at peak value. Players who are sell-lows are often players with a lot of name value. These players are best explained as “get some value for them while you still can before their value falls to nothing.”

Quarterbacks to Cut for Week 4

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – 54.0% Rostered

He’s nursing a high-ankle sprain and was regarded as a game-time decision last week. He ultimately suited up but re-aggravated the injury and left the game. The injury could cause him to miss time, but even if it doesn’t, Herbert doesn’t need to be on rosters.

Herbert has yet to score more than 12 points in a game this season. He has yet to throw for 150 yards in a game. He’s attempted more than 20 passes in just one game. The volume is way down. The production is down, and now, he’s hurt.

From @NFLGameDay Kickoff: The #Chargers are dealing with injuries to QB Justin Herbert (high-ankle) and both OTs, Joe Alt (MCL) and Rashawn Slater (pec strain). pic.twitter.com/vy50YIXhQ1

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 23, 2024

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons – 52.5% Rostered

Maybe Cousins will get better as he gets more comfortable with his surgically repaired Achilles, but fantasy managers cannot trust him right now. He’s scored under 12 points in two of his three games. Many thought Atlanta would implement a pass-heavy system, but that hasn’t been the case.

Most combined interceptions and fumbles this season:

Will Levis (8)
Anthony Richardson (8)
Jalen Hurts (7)
Caleb Williams (6)
Kirk Cousins (6)

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 23, 2024

Cousins has yet to attempt 30 passes in a game. He’s never offered any points with his legs, making him 100% dependent on his passing stats. Unfortunately, for him and fantasy managers, those just aren’t where they need to be for him to remain on rosters. Atlanta is a balanced offense right now, and the passing attack is struggling. There was a brief moment against Philly in Week 2 where you thought that might spark something, but it didn’t carry over to Week 3.

Running Backs to Cut for Week 4

Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders – 87.4% Rostered

I don’t care that Antonio Pierce said he wants to get White the ball 20 times. I don’t care because I don’t believe him. You don’t give someone 20 touches when they’re averaging 3.18 yards per carry. White has yet to score 5.5 half-PPR points in a game this season.

Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah played more snaps this past weekend than White. White ran just four routes. Four. He essentially has zero pass-catching value. That’s a big problem. Another problem is that Mattison took both goal-line snaps and punched in one of the carries for a score. Mattison has gotten both touchdowns inside the five-yard line, a role many fantasy managers thought White would have.

Raiders RB touches inside the 5 this year:

Alexander Mattison 2
Zamir White 0

— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) September 23, 2024

If he’s not getting any targets and he’s not getting the touchdown opportunities, what are we keeping him around for? It seems only a matter of time before this backfield shifts to Mattison. It may have already done that this past weekend.

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys – 77.7% Rostered

Elliott only played 15 of the team’s 80 snaps. He finished with eight routes, two targets, and three carries. His playing time and total number of touches have decreased each week. He happened to have scored a touchdown in Week 1, which saved him, but outside of that score, he’d have weeks of 5.9, 4.2, and 1.7 half-PPR points.

Discouraging Week 3 snap rates

11% - Adonai Mitchell
14% - D'Onta Foreman
20% - Ezekiel Elliott
24% - Zamir White
25% - Jaleel McLaughlin
25% - Marvin Mims
33% - Mark Andrews
36% - Gus Edwards

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 23, 2024

Dallas was trailing in this one, which may have impacted Zeke’s playing time. However, he’s still nothing more than a touchdown-dependent RB4. If he doesn’t score, you’re getting one to five points. If he does score, you might get seven to 12 points. The floor is disgusting. The ceiling is mediocre at best. He’s an easy cut.

Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers – 59.3% Rostered

He’s been on the Cut List for the last two weeks, and many Reddit readers have not liked that. The Gus Bus is a fan favorite, but Jim Harbaugh does not like him. Edwards’ playing time and total number of touches decreased to a season-low this past weekend.

He played just 16 of the team’s 46 snaps. In recent weeks, if you looked at snaps and total touches, you’d have thought this was a full-blown committee. The box score would’ve told you one player (J.K. Dobbins) was playing well, and one (Edwards) was doing nothing.

JK Dobbins RB rush share by week
48% --> 45% --> 83%

He also saw a season-high 64% snap rate. Playing from behind may have influenced the change, but Dobbins has also been notably more efficient with his opportunities than Gus Edwards.

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 23, 2024

That finally impacted his playing time, like it always does. He received just three carries this past weekend. Dobbins had 15. Dobbins took complete command of the Chargers’ backfield, which likely won’t change, barring injury. Even if Dobbins were to get hurt, what part of Edwards’ play this season has anyone confident he’d be able to do anything with the increased role? Who's to say he’d even get an expanded role? Might they give a shot to Kimani Vidal? Edwards is a cut. Again.

Wide Receivers to Cut for Week 4

No receivers stand out this week as players who fantasy managers should be cutting.

Tight Ends to Cut for Week 4

Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans – 67.7% Rostered

The problem isn’t Schultz. He’s a good player. The problem is that Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell are better. That’s not meant to be a knock on him; it’s just true. George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr., and Brandon Aiyuk have fallen victim to this. Kittle is a big play merchant, so he can make it work. Schultz isn’t that.

This same problem has plagued Dallas Goedert when A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are healthy. These are good players, but there’s only one ball. With passing numbers down across the league, Schultz is getting pinched for targets. He has just 11 across three games. He has yet to record 25 passing yards or 3.5 half-PPR points in a game. Drop Schultz and add Tyler Conklin or Cole Kmet.

Uh-Oh...

RB Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 97.4% Rostered

White’s fantasy value is in trouble. During the season, White has 66 rushing yards and 31 carries. He’s averaging 2.1 yards per carry. Rookie Bucky Irving has 154 rushing yards on 25 carries. He’s averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Yesterday, head coach Todd Bowles said that Irving has earned more work.

White will keep his pass-catching role, but the rushing share will likely become a 50/50 situation. If White doesn’t improve, it could quickly shift toward Irving as the season progresses. This is the second year in a row that White’s rushing efficiency has been near the bottom of the league.

Irving’s ability to churn out positive yardage on the ground will continue to earn him touches. The question becomes, who gets the goal-line carries once the team gets close? White will be in some serious trouble if that also shifts to a 50/50 split.

RB Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos – 83.7% Rostered

Williams needs to be plastered to benches right now, and he may be on waivers in a few weeks. This past Sunday, Williams fumbled in the second quarter. After that fumble, Tyler Badie got eight touches to Javonte’s three. Williams has just 52 yards on 24 carries. His 2.1 yards per attempt will not get it done, and it won’t keep him in the lineup.

Denver was in cruise control this past weekend and solidly up on the Buccaneers. This was a positive game script in which Williams should have done well. He finished with just nine touches. He doesn’t have a single game with 25 rushing yards on the season. He only has one game with double-digit touches. He’s scored under five half-PPR points in two out of three games. He has yet to score over nine half-PPR points. Putting him on the “Uh-Oh…” list and not “The Hot Seat” is a gift.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts – 97.0% Rostered

If I had to guess where Pittman will be ranked among receivers for Week 4, I’d say certainly outside the top 36. He was drafted as a top-20 receiver. He’s in free-fall mode. Anthony Richardson has been dreadful as a passer, negatively affecting the offense.

Michael Pittman Jr. has been one of the worst picks you could’ve made this year.

Below 40 yards all 3 weeks.

Yet to hit 10 (or even 8) fantasy points.

Currently pacing for 62/498/0 on 113 targets.

6.6 fantasy PPG.

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) September 22, 2024

Pittman has yet to record 40 receiving yards in a game. He doesn’t have a game with five receptions yet. He has yet to score six half-PPR points in a game. That’s terrible, and in Week 3, Josh Downs returned to the lineup. Before his knee injury as a rookie, Downs’ production mirrored Pittman’s. Downs presents as more target competition than Alec Pierce does. His return could make things even worse for Pittman. Right now, Pittman has virtually no ceiling in Indy’s passing attack.

On The Hot Seat

D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears – 91.8% Rostered

It might seem crazy to put Swift on the hot seat after three weeks, but he’s been that bad. He has 68 rushing yards on 37 carries. That amounts to a 1.8-yard per-carry average. That kind of dreadful inefficiency will eventually cost him snaps and touches. It started to already this past weekend.

D'Andre Swift has 37 carries this season.

Yards gained on each from least to most:
-12, -4, -4, -4, -3, -3, -2, -1, -1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 7, 20

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 23, 2024

It’s hard to pin it all on Swift. Chicago’s offensive line has been atrocious, but that’s unlikely to change this season. Chicago’s offense has struggled to move the football down the field, scoring just three offensive touchdowns this season. At this point, we don’t even know if Swift would get the goal-line carries. Herbert scored the one rushing touchdown they have this season. Swift looks like Miles Sanders did after he left Philadelphia and signed with Carolina last season. It’s been that bad.

Hold On

WR Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints – 85.6% Rostered

Fantasy managers tend to be way too reactionary. No, we’re not dropping Shaheed after his goose egg in Week 3. We’re holding him. We should be starting him again in Week 4. The Saints' offense struggled against Philadelphia in Week 3, but their scheme works.

Shaheed is a home run hitter. That means there will be some boom or bust nature to his game. However, even after a goose egg, he’s still averaging 11.2 half-PPR PPG. He’s a hold. Don’t do anything crazy.

WR Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers – 79.5% Rostered

McConkey is a hold, too. Quentin Johnston has been getting a lot of attention because he’s found the end zone multiple times, but McConkey has out-targeted Johnston in two out of three games. With Joshua Palmer banged up and no credible pass-catching alternative at tight end or as the team’s No. 3 receiver, McConkey will stay involved.

He has seen seven and six targets in two games this season. He’s a rookie, but we often see rookies get better as the season progresses. Los Angeles is also implementing a new offense. As the team gets more comfortable with the system, we should see McConkey’s production increase.

WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers – 71.4% Rostered

Last week, I got several questions on Reddit about dropping Watson. Ladies and gentlemen, he caught a touchdown in Week 1 and played without his starting quarterback in Weeks 2 and 3. No, we’re not cutting Watson. He’s absolutely a hold.

Jordan Love will be back in Week 4 and over the next two to three weeks we can evaluate Watson’s fantasy value. He’s likely to have some boom-or-bust nature to his game, but he’s been the Packers’ preferred end zone target when he’s healthy, and he’s one of the better downfield targets in football. There’s a lot of upside with Watson, with an elite quarterback on one of the best-scoring offenses in the NFL.

Sell High

TE Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles – 87.4% Rostered

Goedert recorded 11 targets, 10 receptions, and 170 yards en route to 22 half-PPR points. A.J. Brown is likely out with a hamstring injury for another game. DeVonta Smith might miss Week 4 with a concussion. This might be the best time to sell high on Goedert.

When Brown and Smith are healthy, Goedert is often an afterthought. He’s a good player but struggles to command the volume to be a fantasy difference-maker. With the tight end position performing so poorly right now, you might be able to coax a good deal out of a desperate fantasy manager who started Hunter Henry last week.

I’d rather trade Goedert and one of my bench receivers or running backs for an upgrade at that position and add Tyler Conklin and Cole Kmet off the waiver wire and stream those players instead of just keeping Goedert. Once Brown and Smith return, Goedert will return to being a low-ceiling TE2. Sell now while you get the chance.

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