The Cut List - Who to Drop for Fantasy Football Week 16

Congratulations to those of you who are still dancing! One more week, one more victory until Championship week. If you're out of the playoffs and just can't get enough fantasy football, know you're welcome here, too! Our roster construction should change slightly since we're in the playoffs.

Identify your ideal starting lineup for Weeks 16 and 17. You don't need a ton of depth anymore. Bye weeks are done. You only need 1-2 solid depth players if one of your starters gets hurt this week. The rest of your bench should be high-upside players (handcuffs) and potential streamers you may want to start this week or next. The only reason to keep more than 1-2 depth players is to block your opponents if needed.

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The Parameters

There are a few different categories here. Anyone listed under the “Insert Position to Cut for Insert Week” can be safely cut. Seems pretty self-explanatory, correct? No surprise there. We'll focus on players with rostered percentages higher than 40% to keep this a little more straightforward. Otherwise, we could name many players for every position every week.

The following two categories are “Uh-Oh…” and “On the Hot Seat.” If a player is listed under “Uh-Oh…” that doesn’t mean they’re a cut… yet. It just means their value is falling. That could be due to several reasons. Maybe it’s due to repeated inefficiency. Perhaps it’s due to a change in role and utilization. Whatever the reason, these players are not as valuable today as they were before last week’s games.

The other category is “On the Hot Seat.” This one is also pretty self-explanatory. These players do not need to be cut, although if you’re on the hot seat, there’s certainly an argument to be made that they could be cut if you’re in a tough roster predicament.

These players should be given one final shot to make your roster. Especially early in the season, we don’t want to overreact to a change in utilization or a bad week or two, but we also don’t want to ignore it. Players in this section are a bad week away from being on the cut list.

One of the final categories we'll sometimes touch on is "Hold On." These players may have had some bad weeks, but their utilization is good, indicating better days are ahead. Hold onto them. On occasion, we’ll also identify sell-high and sell-low players. A sell-high player is one whose production has spiked, but maybe their role creates questions about whether the production is sustainable.

These players have increased their value recently, so it makes sense to see if you can trade them at peak value. Players who are sell-lows are often players with a lot of name value. These players are best explained as “get some value for them while you still can before their value falls to nothing.”

Easy Cuts

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans – 78.3% Rostered

Since Week 5, Stroud has scored more than 15 points three times. Over his last eight games, he’s averaging 11.4 PPG. Some of that occurred with Nico Collins on IR, so let’s be fair. However, since Collins returned to the lineup, Stroud is averaging 13.1 PPG. Slightly better but incredibly far away from being a dependable starter in the fantasy playoffs.

He’s got a fantastic Week 17 matchup against Baltimore, but there’s no trusting Stroud anymore this season. He scored just 14.38 points in Week 13 against the lowly Jaguars. That contest will likely be a low-scoring affair if Patrick Mahomes misses their Week 16 game. Stroud is an easy cut.

Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers – 50.1% Rostered

Since returning to the lineup, Wilson has scored 128.18 points in eight games. He scored 51.72 (40.3%) in two of those games. In his six other games, he’s averaged 12.7 PPG and has scored under 14 points four times.

He has a great matchup in Week 16 against Baltimore on paper, but back in Week 11, the Ravens held him to just 6.3 points. It’s unknown if George Pickens will be back for this contest, but Wilson has struggled without him, averaging just 143 yards per game. Wilson cannot be trusted if Pickens doesn’t return to the lineup despite the favorable matchup. If Pickens is back, Wilson should be considered a risky streamer.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks – 47.8% Rostered

Smith hasn’t scored more than 16 points in a game since Week 9. The team had a Week 10 bye; Smith has averaged just 11.6 PPG since then. Week 11 was the last time he scored more than 14.

HC Macdonald on Geno Smith's knee injury:

"[Geno] seemed optimistic this morning texting with him, so we've got that going for us. They do the tests and all that type of stuff, and it just seemed like everything was intact. Then he had an X-ray, and there was nothing broken."

— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) December 16, 2024

On top of his dreadful production recently, Smith is now dealing with a knee injury that caused him to exit his game this past weekend. He did not return. While they’re reporting his knee is structurally sound, it seems unlikely he’ll be 100% by this weekend.

He hasn’t put up a quality fantasy start in the past six weeks when he’s been healthy. How are fantasy managers supposed to trust Smith in a playoff game if he’s less than 100%? They cannot.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos – 76.1% Rostered

He’s scored over 9.5 half-PPR points once since Week 8. Since that time, he’s averaging 6.6 half-PPR PPG. He has gotten ten carries in a game since Week 10. Williams has been held to fewer than 3.5 half-PPR points in the past five games three times. Over this timeframe, his half-PPR PPG average drops to 6.0.

The injury to Jaleel McLaughlin could, theoretically, increase his utilization and, thus, fantasy value. However, at this time, it’s virtually impossible to trust him, even though Denver has two favorable matchups against the Chargers and Bengals. If McLaughlin’s injury isn’t enough for you to feel confident starting Javonte, you might as well cut him for a handcuff or a streamer you can use this week or next.

Gus Edwards, Los Angeles Chargers – 57.1% Rostered

Edwards has averaged 3.3 half-PPR PPG in eight games where he hasn’t found the end zone. In the two games where he has scored, he’s averaged 8.3 half-PPR PPG. His highest game with a touchdown is 9.6. His highest game without a touchdown is 5.9.

#Chargers backfield week 14

Kimani Vidal - 53% snaps
Gus Edwards - 43% snaps

First half carries:

Edwards - 4
Vidal - 1

Second half carries:

Vidal - 7
Edwards - 6

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) December 9, 2024

That’s the kind of upside you’re getting with Edwards – none. You may be desperate for a running back starter, but hopefully, you’re not this desperate. Edwards is un-startable. There’s also a good chance Kimani Vidal starts to get more worth due to how inefficient Edwards has been.

Tank Dell, Houston Texans – 79.6% Rostered

I held out hope with Dell for far too long. I gave him a long leash due to his turbulent offseason and injury last season. The offensive line, the other receiver injuries, and Stroud’s up-and-down play didn’t help. I was hoping this talented offense would right the ship. It hasn’t, and I’m done waiting.

Generally, I don’t particularly want to cut players I believe to be good football players, especially at running back and receiver, but I’m making the exception here. Dell hasn’t scored 9.0 half-PPR points in a game since Week 9.

Over his last five games, he’s averaging 6.0 half-PPR PPG. He has scored double-digits three times this season. Two of them required a touchdown to get him there. He hasn’t scored over 16.0 half-PPR points all year, indicating his ceiling is not all that high.

Tank Dell had an 8% target share against the Dolphins. He's been at 16%, 12%, and 8% over his last three games.

— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 16, 2024

The matchups are appealing over the next two weeks, with the Chiefs and Ravens on the docket. The Ravens’ pass defense is virtually nonexistent. Patrick Mahomes could miss their Week 16 duel, decreasing Dell’s fantasy value. That’s because it would increase the odds of a low-scoring game.

If you’re desperate for receiver starters, Dell’s Week 17 matchup might be enough for you to hold onto him. If you’re in a three-receiver league and you’re streaming the position, lacking quality starters, maybe that matchup is enough.

However, if you’re otherwise in shape at the receiver position, Dell has given very little reason to remain on your roster. He has had plenty of good matchups in the past few weeks and failed to deliver.

Others to Cut:

• Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns – 20.5% Rostered
• David Montgomery, Detroit Lions – 96.6% Rostered
• Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks – 52.3% Rostered
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tennessee Titans – 40.2% Rostered
• Diontae Johnson, Baltimore Ravens – 39.6% Rostered
• Wan'Dale Robinson, New York Giants – 38.7% Rostered
• Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers – 30.6% Rostered
• Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons – 77.6% Rostered

Tough Cuts

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – 80.6% Rostered

Herbert had a fantastic four-game stretch from Weeks 8-11, averaging 21.9 PPG, but since that time, Herbert is averaging just 13.3 PPG. He has not scored 14 points in any of his last three games. Ladd McConkey missed one of those games, and Herbert has been beaten up. However, that’s part of the problem. He’s been dealing with a thigh injury and a high-ankle sprain. These injuries seem to be impacting his production.

He’s on a short week in Week 16, facing off against his divisional rivals, the Denver Broncos, on Thursday Night. Herbert is a gamer, so there’s little to no chance he’ll miss the contest, but how effective will he be?

Denver’s defense has been brutal for quarterbacks, and they held Herbert to just 13.7 points back in Week 6. In Week 17, the Chargers go on the road to face the Patriots. Their defense hasn’t been as daunting, but that game will likely have one of the lower implied point totals for the week. New England’s offense is unlikely to score enough where Herbert has to do too much with his arm.

Herbert is QB19 in PPG this season, so he’s not someone fantasy managers have to keep on their roster. If you have a better option at quarterback, Herbert can be cut.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – 96.8% Rostered

It’s tough cutting Mahomes, although he has already made the list this season. He’s picked up his scoring in the second half of the season, but truthfully, most of it came in two games against the Buccaneers and Panthers. Mahomes scored 53.3 in those games, 22.8% of his season total. He has scored just 15.0 PPG in his other 12 games.

Those two games have helped increased Mahomes' PPG average to 16.7, where he is just narrowly ranked as the QB12 for the season. He has two tough matchups coming up. One was against Houston in Week 16, and the other was on the road against Pittsburgh in Week 17. While the tough matchups are just one piece of the puzzle, his health is another.

Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain this past week. He may miss a week or two because of it. It’s also possible he plays through it like Herbert has. However, the injury could impact his production if he does, especially in two difficult matchups.

You cannot cut Mahomes unless you have a quality backup. However, given his lackluster production all year outside of two games, the fact that he won’t be 100%, and his two tough matchups, Mahomes isn’t entirely safe from the waiver wire if you got another quality option at quarterback.

Amari Cooper, Buffalo Bills – 80.0% Rostered

Cooper had 14 targets, six receptions, and 95 yards en route to 12.5 half-PPR points in Week 14. It was, by far, his best performance since being traded to the Bills. Against a depleted Detroit defense, in what profiled to be a shoot-out, optimism was growing for Cooper. Finally.

Then he finished fourth among Buffalo receivers in snaps played and did not register a single target. The poor performance is even more concerning because it coincides with Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman’s return to the lineup. It wasn’t just the goose egg that put him in “cut” territory; it was how it happened.

Bad games, even zeros can happen, but being fourth in snaps and zero targets cannot. Not if someone is going to be fantasy relevant.

Amari Cooper yesterday in a game Josh Allen dropped back 37 times:

* 32-of-70 snaps (46%)
* 15 routes (40%)
* 0 targets

Note that in Week 14 against Rams, Amari played 53% of the snaps, ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks, and saw 14 targets for a 38% share.

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) December 16, 2024

This offense likes to spread the ball around, and it seems like the offense will flow through Khalil Shakir and Kincaid, first and second. That leaves Cooper fighting to be third in line with Coleman and the running backs. Fantasy managers do not have to cut him, but it's impossible to trust him after that performance and, more importantly, dreadful utilizations.

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 81.7% Rostered

Since Mike Evans has returned following the team's Week 11 bye, Otton has had three out of four games with four or fewer targets. He's been held to 30 or fewer yards in three of them and has just one game with more than three catches. He's been held to 4.0 half-PPR points in less in three out of four games.

Jalen McMillan has come on strong recently and has operated as Baker Mayfield's No. 2 target-earner. With Evans on the field, Mayfield has been able to work downfield more than he could in his absence. That led to more check-down targets for Otton. Evans has again opened up the offense and garnered more volume than anyone else had been doing.

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