The Cut List - Who to Drop for Fantasy Football Week 13

Each new week of NFL games gives us more information to make more informed decisions. This is crucial when figuring out who to add and who to cut. It can be difficult to admit we were wrong on a particular player. For example, using a high draft pick on someone and cutting them so early in the season can be demoralizing. However, the only thing worse than making a mistake is not being able to admit we made one in the first place.

Don’t be afraid to make bold decisions, but be careful not to be too reactionary. Bad weeks are going to happen. Sometimes, opportunity doesn’t always translate into box-score success. The flip side of that is true, too. Sometimes, the box score can look amazing despite poor utilization. This article will help you determine who to send packing and how to value players whose value is falling.

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The Parameters

There are a few different categories here. Anyone listed under the “Insert Position to Cut for Insert Week” can be safely cut. Seems pretty self-explanatory, correct? No surprise there. We'll focus on players with rostered percentages higher than 40% to keep this a little more straightforward. Otherwise, we could name many players for every position every week.

The following two categories are “Uh-Oh…” and “On the Hot Seat.” If a player is listed under “Uh-Oh…” that doesn’t mean they’re a cut… yet. It just means their value is falling. That could be due to several reasons. Maybe it’s due to repeated inefficiency. Perhaps it’s due to a change in role and utilization. Whatever the reason, these players are not as valuable today as they were before last week’s games.

The other category is “On the Hot Seat.” This one is also pretty self-explanatory. These players do not need to be cut, although if you’re on the hot seat, there’s certainly an argument to be made that they could be cut if you’re in a tough roster predicament.

These players should be given one final shot to make your roster. Especially early in the season, we don’t want to overreact to a change in utilization or a bad week or two, but we also don’t want to ignore it. Players in this section are a bad week away from being on the cut list.

One of the final categories we'll sometimes touch on is "Hold On." These players may have had some bad weeks, but their utilization is good, indicating better days are ahead. Hold onto them. On occasion, we’ll also identify sell-high and sell-low players. A sell-high player is one whose production has spiked, but maybe their role creates questions about whether the production is sustainable.

These players have increased their value recently, so it makes sense to see if you can trade them at peak value. Players who are sell-lows are often players with a lot of name value. These players are best explained as “get some value for them while you still can before their value falls to nothing.”

Easy Cuts

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets – 45.3% Rostered

Rodgers hasn’t been downright awful for fantasy. He has six games with over 15 points, but he’s been wildly inconsistent. He also has four games with fewer than 12 points. Even in some games where he ended up putting together a decent point total, the production came late. Now, that doesn’t matter. Points are points, after all, but is that sustainable? Most likely not.

Seattle, his Week 13 opponent, is about the middle of the road this year regarding points allowed to quarterbacks. He’s not a horrible start, but he has a limited ceiling. Fantasy managers can likely find another quarterback with more weekly upside. Outside of a Week 15 matchup against the Jaguars, his rest of the season schedule is not very favorable. Adding a handcuff running back at this part of the season has more upside.

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins – 53.9% Rostered

2023 was fun and all, but Mike McDaniel has officially moved on, and so should you. He has just three rushing yards over his last three games (not a typo). He’s gained those three measly yards on just five rushing attempts. Mostert has averaged 1.6 half-PPR PPG over the team’s past three games. He has been almost entirely phased out of the offense. Jaylen Wright is getting more touches than Mostert.

Regarding players McDaniel wants to get the ball to, Mostert might be sixth or seventh on the list. There’s De'Von Achane, Jonnu Smith, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Jaylen Wright, and then there’s an argument for Malik Washington. Either way, Mostert is 100% cuttable. He shouldn’t be on benches anywhere. There are better handcuffs available on the waiver wire.

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans – 40.4% Rostered

Spears has had a rough second season. Injuries have been a problem, along with general ineffectiveness. He has just one game with more than 8.5 half-PPR points. Tony Pollard, on the other hand, has been incredible. He’s been durable, productive, and explosive—all things Spears has not been. Fantasy managers may have been hoping for a committee backfield with Spears carving out an RB3-type role, but that dream is dead.

Spears is now nothing more than a backup for a change of pace, and until he gets healthy and shows that, it’s hard to trust him in that role. He’s best viewed as Pollard’s handcuff and nothing more.

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks – 63.4% Rostered

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has officially come to life. All rookie and second-year expectations and hype have come to fruition in the last four weeks. He has 38 targets, 29 receptions, and 436 yards. Since returning in Week 11, D.K. Metcalf has 14 targets, 11 receptions, and 129 yards. Over that same span, JSN has 18 targets, 16 receptions, and 187 yards. What does any of that have to do with Lockett?

DK Metcalf vs Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs Tyler Lockett Utilization ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/rWe5wUkCmf

— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) November 23, 2024

He cannot succeed if Metcalf and JSN command 16 targets, 14 receptions, and 158 yards per game. That’s what they’ve done the past two weeks. It left Lockett with six targets, four receptions, and 39 yards combined. Last year, Lockett was the 2A or 2B on any given week. He is now the distant third. This may sound slightly disrespectful, but he’s Andrei Iosivas with Metcalf and JSN impersonating Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Tough Cuts

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans – 86.3% Rostered

It’s over. Nico Collins returned in Week 11 against Dallas. Through the first 11 weeks, the Cowboys allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. In Week 12, Stroud had another excellent matchup. The Titans had allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Stroud scored 10.9 and 15.7 points in those respective contests. He threw more interceptions than he did touchdowns. Yes, two touchdowns were nullified because of penalties, but I don’t care. This offense looks broken, along with Stroud. The offensive line play is horrendous. The pass-catchers have been suspect since Stefon Diggs was lost for the year. It’s just Collins. Dalton Schultz and Tank Dell have not provided consistent production week-to-week.

Something’s off with CJ Stroud

- 3 games with 2+ interceptions this season (1 last year)
- 5 INT in last 3 games (4 in first 9)
- 74.7 passer rating since Week 7 (2nd-worst among qualified QBs)

Texans became 2nd team ever to lose a game with 8+ sacks, 3+ takeaways and 1+ INT TD

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 25, 2024

He has another great matchup this week against the Jaguars, and if you’re desperate, there are few better matchups than Jacksonville if you’re a quarterback. They’ve allowed the second-most points to quarterbacks this season. But how can you start Stroud with any sense of confidence? He’s scored over 19 points once this season. He hasn’t scored 12 points in a game since Week 6 before his 15.7-point effort this past weekend.

If there’s a silver lining to Stroud in Week 13, he scored 23.5 points against the Jaguars back in Week 4. He’s a great streamer this week, but then the team is on bye in Week 14, followed by back-to-back challenging games against Miami and Kansas City. If you have another quarterback you feel more confident about starting this week, Stroud is cuttable. If you want to do that, I’d cut him on Saturday so no one else can use him this week as a streamer.

Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars – 84.4% Rostered

It’s been a lousy year for Etienne. There’s no way to dispute that. A big part of that has been due to injuries. Etienne struggled with a hamstring injury, and Trevor Lawrence missed two games. However, he has 12 touches in seven of the nine games he appeared in. The only two in which he failed to reach that number were in Week 6 when he left early due to an injury, and in Week 9, his first game back from injury, when it appeared, he was still on a snap count.

Eliminating those two contests, Etienne has averaged 13.7 touches per game. The last two were without Lawrence in seven of those nine games that were not injury-affected. In the first five games, he averaged 10.0 half-PPR PPG. If we look at his seven games not impacted by an injury or a snap count, Etienne is averaging 8.5 half-PPR PPG. That’s not a weekly starter, but it’s undoubtedly someone capable of being on benches.

That’s why he finds himself in the tough-cut category. Ideally, you’d be able to find a way to keep him on your roster, especially with the unknowns regarding Tank Bigsby’s status. However, Lawrence’s availability for Week 13 is still in the air. Since he’s been fairly disappointing this season, and the Jacksonville offense looks like a mess, you can cut him if you have to. However, I’d try to keep him on your roster until we know Lawrence’s status.

Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers -52.6% Rostered

Doubs suffered a concussion in Week 12, and with a short turnaround to this week, he seems unlikely to pass through the concussion protocol to be available on Thanksgiving when the Packers host the Dolphins. Over the past five weeks, the Packers have been one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL, negatively affecting the upside and value of all the Packers’ receivers.

Over the past three weeks, Doubs has just 13 targets, eight receptions, 99 yards, and 13.9 half-PPR points. He’s shown he can be a quality bench player for fantasy managers and someone they can start in a pinch. However, with his injury and change in offensive operations in Green Bay, if you have to cut Doubs, you can.

Over the past five games, Jordan Love is averaging under 27 pass attempts per game and just 223 yards per game. If we eliminate Love’s 54 pass attempt performance against Minnesota in Week 4, a clear outlier, Love is averaging just 28.2 pass attempts for the 2024 season.

Romeo Doubs (concussion) listed as DNP in practice Monday.

— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) November 25, 2024

That volume increases the volatility of all the Packers’ pass catchers. This was already a concern with the sheer number of quality pass-catchers Green Bay employs. With the Packers shifting more and more to a run-first offense and with Doubs’ concussion, if you need to cut him, you can.

Wan'Dale Robinson, New York Giants – 52.1% Rostered

If you truly need someone who will score between 5 and 12 points per game, Robinson is your guy. However, he has no ceiling. Robinson has scored between 5.0 and 9.6 half-PPR in eight out of his 11 games. His best two performances were a 12.6 and 13.0 half-PPR point outing. One of those games included a touchdown.

Robinson is as consistent as he is boring. If you're looking for a receiver who will get you five to 10 points, Robinson is your guy. He won't pop off for 18+ points like Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Now, MVS may not have the same floor as Robinson, but his weekly ceiling presents more opportunity to be a player who can help flip a fantasy matchup from your flex spot.

I'd rather roster a handcuff running back or a player with more upside and potential than Robinson. If you ever are in a position where you do need to start Robinson, you can likely find a waiver wire player who has a decent shot of giving you the five to 10 points where Robinson lives.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills – 77.7% Rostered

Ideally, you're able to hang onto Kincaid. Before his injury, he was starting to trend in the right direction. He started slow, but from Weeks 4-9, Kincaid registered six or more targets in every game he played—six straight games. The production still wasn't quite where fantasy managers would have liked it, and it didn't match up with the preseason hype, but we were starting to see glimpses.

He had 17 catches from Weeks 6-9 before exiting Week 10 early. He also had 166 yards during this four-game span. He missed Week 11, and Buffalo had their bye in Week 12. He'll return to action in Week 13 against the 49ers, who have allowed the sixth-fewest points to tight ends this season. He has a favorable Week 14 matchup against the Rams.

In Week 15, the Bills play the Lions, who have allowed the fewest points to tight ends this season. He closes out the fantasy football playoffs with the Patriots and Jets. The Patriots have been in the middle of the road against tight ends, but the Jets have been stout.

With a brutal schedule, lackluster production, and the healthy return of receivers Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper, Kincaid is not a must-start tight end. If you're in a position to keep Kincaid to see how he performs once he returns 100% healthy, I'd advise you to do that. However, if you have someone like Will Dissly and you're in a roster pinch, you can cut Kincaid.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys – 69.1% Rostered

Ferguson didn’t play in Week 12, and it seems he’s a long shot for Week 13, too. He suffered a concussion in Week 11. To Cooper Rush’s credit, he was competent in Week 12 against the Commanders. However, Washington’s defense is far from good. Luckily, Dallas has plenty of appealing matchups coming up. That would be the reason to hang onto Ferguson.

In Week 13, they play the Giants. Then it’s the Bengals, followed by the Panthers and Buccaneers. That is four favorable matchups in a row. The hard part is he’s unlikely to play in Week 13, and he hasn’t been particularly good this year, even when Dak Prescott was under center. Some of that was bad touchdown luck, but the point still stands.

If you’re desperate at tight end, it’s okay to try holding onto him for his matchups in Weeks 14-16, but if you have another quality player like Jonnu Smith, it’s okay to make the tough decision and send him packing.

Hot Seat

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions – 72.0% Rostered

If it wasn’t for his 34.6-point explosion in Week 11 against the Jaguars, who happen to be one of the easiest matchups for quarterbacks this season, Goff may have found himself on the cut list outright. Outside of that game, Goff has scored 9.6, 7.8, and 10.8 points in his past four games. Since their Week 5 bye week, he’s averaging 17.4 PPG. However, 48.9% of those points came in two games against Dallas and Jacksonville, both in the top 5 in points allowed to quarterbacks.

His median score over the past seven weeks is just 15.5 points. The problem is volume. He’s averaging just 26 pass attempts per game since the bye week. Last week against the Colts was the only game where he threw more than 30 passes in that span.

He has a brutal rest-of-season schedule that includes Chicago, Green Bay, Buffalo, Chicago (again), and San Francisco. Those final two games come on the road. The Detroit offense is so good he could pop off at any time, but he has no “gimme” matchups left.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 91.3% Rostered

Oh boy, White and his fantasy value might be falling fast. Truthfully, it may be gone. White has never been a great runner, but he's made his money by being one of the better pass-catching backs in the NFL. Week 12 took a concerning turn for White's future fantasy value. Irving's 17 routes to White's 10.

The route run disparity was even wider 👀

59.4% - Bucky Irving
34.4% - Rachaad White

First time that White's rate has been below 40% since his rookie season. https://t.co/YiK8DuVqs6

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 25, 2024

Irving also vastly out-produced White through the air. He finished with six targets, six receptions, and 64 yards. White had just one target, one catch, and 10 yards. White and Irving had 12 carries, but Irving had 87 yards, and White had just 37. Had White not gotten a one-yard touchdown score, he would've been a massive bust. He's now virtually unstartable at this point, and if things keep trending this way, he may end up being cuttable in two to four weeks.

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