RADIO
Welcome to Week 13 of the Cut List. This week I take a look at Luke Weaver, Dallas Kuechel, Gregory Polanco, and Kyle Seager.
All 4 of these guys were drafted in the mid rounds and expected to have productive seasons, and they've all struggled to post even shallow team value as we approach the halfway mark of the season. While there's a chance they may rebound, it's probably safer to bet on a waiver pickup than hold and hope these guys turn it around.
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Time to Move On
Luke Weaver (SP, STL) - 24.1 IP, 0 W, 18 K, 5.55 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, over past 30 days
Cut in 10 and 12 team leagues
Why you should cut him: Weaver has been bad. Like really bad. In his last 3 start, the righty has failed to get out of the 6th inning and hasn't topped 4 strikeouts in any single start and the worst part of this is that his opponents here were the Reds, Padres and Philles - not exactly Murderer's Row by any means. It doesn't seem like he's getting too unlucky either as his .305 BABIP is fairly normal and his 69.4 LOB% is low, but not by that much. Combine all that with a weak 9.2% SwStr rate and I'm staying far, far away.
Better SP options: Andrew Heaney, Caleb Smith, Domingo German
Dallas Keuchel (SP, HOU) - 28.0 IP, 1 W, 23 K, 5.79 ERA, 1.68 WHIP over past 30 days
Cut in 10 and 12 team leagues
Why you should cut him: If Dallas Keuchel's name was John Smith and he wasn't a former Cy Young winner, I'd guarantee you he would not be owned in 96% of leagues. Keuchel has never been a high strikeout pitcher, but he has had an uncanny ability to limit hard contact, which has let him outperform his peripherals and succeed without being able to consistently miss bats. Unfortunately, this season, Keuchel has seen his hard hit % creep up closer to average (sitting at 30.4%) as well as his already low strikeout levels drop even further with a 7.02 K/9 backed up by an anemic 8.8% swinging strike rate. Even with a proven track record, his upside is so limited by his K rate that you're better off chasing upside guys like Smith and German who will actually strike guys out.
Better SP options: Andrew Heaney, Caleb Smith, Domingo German
Gregory Polanco (OF, PIT) - .182 BA, 8 runs, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 0 SB over past 30 days
Cut in 10-team and 12-team leagues
Why you should cut him: It's only been 2 years since Polanco nearly posted a 20/20 season as a 24 year old, but it feels like it was ages ago. Polanco has struggled mightily over the last month and it's about time to cut bait. After stealing 44 bases over the 2015 and 2016 seasons, he only post a paltry 8 last season and sits at just 3 this year. His sudden aversion to steals is wasting a career high 12.6% walk rate. While his .247 BABIP on 35.3% hard hit rate has been a bit unlucky, what is the upside here? You have a guy who has moderate power at best, who doesn't steal bases anymore, and that equals waiver fodder to me. You can do better.
Better OF options: Teoscar Hernandez, Austin Meadows, Aaron Hicks
Kyle Seager (3B, BOS) - .238 BA, 12 runs, 5 HR, 15 RBI over past 30 days
Cut in 10-team leagues
Why you should cut him: Kyle Seager's plate discipline numbers have taken a significant turn for the worse, as he's posted a career worst 5.4% walk rate to go with a career high 21.2% strikeout rate. The "other" Seager has always been a good, but not great hitter, and that kind of regression in plate discipline is the kind that can drop someone from good to just plain bad, which is what Seager has been this season. 3B might lack big names past the first few, but there are a multitude of productive guys you can scoop off waivers and you're going to be better off rolling with someone like Max Muncy than hoping Seager can return to his prior form.
Better 3B options: Max Muncy, Miguel Andujar, Jeimer Candelario
Update on Last Week’s Cuts
Jed Lowrie (2B, OAK)
- .308, 5 runs, 2 HR, 7 RBI since June 17
- Lowrie had a strong week, but his peripherals still suggested a decline and you expected some regression after a scorching July. He is rosterable at this point in 12-team leagues as a decent option at a middle infield position.
Justin Smoak (1B, TOR)
- .235, 2 runs, 0 HR, 1 RBI since June 17
- The struggles have continued for Smoak. Early in the season, he posted solid stats backed up by his statcast numbers but there are so many good 1B options available that you should probably have cut bait at this point
Yoan Moncada (2B, CHW)
- .250, 2 run, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB since June 17
- Moncada continues to struggle and still holds an insane 35.2% K rate but it's a bit inflated as his contact numbers and 12.9% swinging strike rate portend to a high, but not THAT high strikeout rate. I think Moncada is a hold as he is still stealing bases as well.
Mitch Moreland (1B, BOS)
- .478, 8 runs, 0 HR, 5 RBI since June 17
- The counting stats will be there in a powerful Red Sox lineup. I think Moreland is a hold after a very strong week.
