The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 22

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

We're into the final four weeks of the regular season where playoffs start for some and dreams are ended for many. There's still time to catch up in roto leagues, there's still the possibility to close the gap in points leagues and in head-to-head leagues, anything can happen. With exciting prospects being called up, now's not the time for sentiment and tough decisions need to be made. But it's even more crucial to avoid mistakes with your drops.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As we near the end of the season, we need to consider making moves with specific targets in mind. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Josh Hader – RP, San Diego Padres – 89% rostered

I think it's safe to assume everyone who follows baseball knows how badly Hader has struggled in recent weeks. Following his trade to the Padres, Hader has made eight appearances but only managed 5.2 IP and has a 1-1 W-L record, 19.06 ERA, 3.53 WHIP, and nine Ks with his first save coming on Wednesday.

The strikeout rate has plummeted to 23.1% K% and his 17.9% BB% is eye-watering. This is the smallest of small sample sizes, but in truth, Hader's struggles began before the trade. After starting the season with 18 scoreless outings (17.2 IP), Hader eventually allowed an earned run on June 7th but still only allowed one more run in his next seven outings.

Then the wheels began to fall off. Hader's final 10 appearances (8.1 IP) for the Brewers saw him allow 13 earned runs to balloon his ERA to 4.24. And it hasn't stopped climbing. On the year, Hader has a 2-5 w-L record, 6.35 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 68 Ks, and 30 saves (39.2 IP). Surprisingly, he only has three blown saves in 2022.

Needless to say, the Padres removed Hader from the closer role but the early results don't suggest that it has helped him. His struggles appear to run much deeper and to illustrate just how far Hader has fallen, the below shows his rolling xwOBA on the season.

On Wednesday, while I was on the Benched with Bubba Podcast with @bdentrek discussing the Padres' bullpen situation (which you can check out here), Hader was called upon to seal a 5-4 win in the ninth against the Giants. He gave up a leadoff single, with the runner advancing to second on a passed ball.

But Hader then retired the next three batters, two of whom were lefties, which helps explain why the Padres went to Hader. His one strikeout was against Luis Gonzalez, swinging and missing a 3-2 pitch right down the middle after seeing four pitches outside the zone.

Nick Martinez had pitched the prior two days and three of the previous four, securing saves on both occasions and this seemed like a situational save with the Giants having two lefties due up and it was the bottom of the order (6-7-8 hitters) so I'm not anointing Hader as being back as the closer.

Verdict: One would think that Hader would need a couple of weeks of dominance to get the closer role back and there simply isn't enough time to wait and see in fantasy. As tough as it might be, I'm dropping Hader in any redraft leagues where I'm not desperate for saves and I don't have a big bench to stash him. You're not starting him right now so all you're doing is hoping for a dramatic turnaround. 

Sean Manaea – SP, San Diego Padres – 75% rostered

It's been a rough first season in San Diego for Manaea. As impressive as his hair has been, the results haven't matched. In 25 starts, Manaea has a 7-8 W-L record, 5.27 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 140 Ks (138.1 IP). He had a 7.88 ERA in August and if last night is to go by, things might not get much better in September.

After yesterday's outing against the Dodgers (eight earned runs in 4.1 IP), he's lined up to face the Dodgers again next weekend which is set to be followed by starts against the Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and the Dodgers once more. There's a series in Coors Field that he could pitch in instead but it's a pretty rough stretch of starts coming up.

As per my normal preaching, Statcast profiles shouldn't be the sole reason you drop, add or keep someone and they need context. But when one is as blue as Manaea's, it is difficult to find many positives.

Interestingly, Manaea's underlying numbers do suggest he's been a bit unlucky this year. He has a 4.18 xERA, 3.92 xFIP, and 3.90 SIERA, all of which are only marginally higher than last year when Manaea had a 3.91 ERA. But at this stage of the season, it's hard to expect the luck to even itself out.

As ugly as his August numbers were, if we go back even further and look at Manaea's last 11 starts (since July 1st), he still has an unsightly 7.43 ERA. He does have four quality starts in that span, all games he won so it's nice that things work out as they should.

If you want to keep Manaea and only start him in the better matchups, he doesn't seem set to have many left and it's hard to know what they are when Manaea is on the mound. After allowing one run in seven innings against the Nationals, he lasted four innings against the Royals giving up six earned runs.

And in July, Manaea gave up nine runs (four earned) against the Tigers (3.1 IP). So the good matchups on paper aren't a given for Manaea to toss a quality start, one of which in July came at Coors. How can you possibly know when to start Manaea and when to sit him?

Verdict: At this stage of the season, with his upcoming schedule and his two-month struggles, it's difficult to trust Manaea so you'll likely just have him sitting on your bench for the next four weeks. In all but very deep leagues, there's likely someone on waivers who will be of more help to your rosters.

Luis Urias – 2B/3B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers – 34% rostered

This one hurts me more than most as I was high on Urias coming into 2022 and even though he was hurt entering the season, I was still hopeful he could build on last year's breakout and felt a 30+ homer season was in play.

Instead, Urias has 14 homers, 42 RBI, 45 runs, and one stolen base with a .222/.324/.386 slash line (99 games). While not horrendous, that's not worthwhile rostering in anything but the deepest leagues and given he's now found himself platooning with Jace Peterson, there's little to no reason on rostering Urias.

I will say, he's still only 25-years-old and the quad injury he started 2022 with might have been hampering him all year. His 11.1% BB% is in the 82nd percentile and he's only a year removed from hitting 23 homers in 150 games. So in dynasty leagues, I'm still holding.

But the reality is Urias is on the weak side of a platoon, and when he does start, is hitting in the bottom third of the order. There's nothing to justify rostering Urias in redraft leagues unless you have a very deep bench and daily roster moves.

Verdict: It hurts me to say, but even being rostered in a third of fantasy leagues is too high for Urias. Without an injury to open up more playing time, he's not in the lineup enough and he's struggled so much I wouldn't consider rostering him in shallower leagues even if he was playing every day.

Hold For Now

Luis Robert – OF, Chicago White Sox – 97% rostered

If this was a decision based solely on performance and production, then Robert would be a no-brainer hold and I wouldn't even dream of including him on The Cut List. In 90 games, Robert has 12 homers, 56 RBI, 54 runs, and 11 stolen bases while hitting .300/.336/.451. The problem is that he's not playing.

The reason he's not playing is due to a wrist issue, which frankly should've seen him put on the IL by now. Robert was placed on the paternity list on Friday but Sunday will be 10 days since he last started a game for the White Sox.

Somewhat questionably, Robert has been used as a pinch runner and defensive replacement in the last 10 days so if he were to wind up on the IL, it can only be backdated to September 1st. Given he's not swung a bat since August 25th, the whole situation just seems odd.

The fact Robert's wrist injury seems significant enough to prevent him from taking any at-bats suggests it is more than general soreness but what the plan is with Robert for the remainder of this season remains to be seen.

If he returns next week with no wrist issue, he could be a top-20 outfielder for the rest of 2022. But with no clarity on the situation, we're simply clutching at straws. Robert's talent and upside are too much for me to justify dropping him right now so we're stuck in a holding pattern until we get some concrete news that makes Robert droppable.

Craig Kimbrel – RP, Los Angeles Dodgers – 89% rostered

The best way to describe Kimbrel's performances for fantasy managers was how Bubba put it on the Benched with Bubba podcast this past Wednesday (another plug because it's well worth a listen); it's a roller-coaster. I couldn't have put it better myself.

On the season, Kimbrel has a 4-5 W-L record, 4.05 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 62 Ks, and 21 saves (46.2 IP). The important thing for Kimbrel's fantasy managers is that he hasn't lost the closer job. At least not officially. Unlike the Padres with Hader, the Dodgers haven't said Kimbrel is out as closer.

If you don't know my mantras by now, one of them is not to use a player's Statcast profile as the be-all-and-end-all. In Kimbrel's case, it does paint an accurate picture. He continues to rack up a good number of strikeouts but when hitters make contact, it's usually very good contact. And invariably, there's someone already on base when that does happen.

Since August 1st, Kimbrel has tallied three of the six saves the Dodgers bullpen accumulated and despite the struggles, he only has one blown save in the last nine weeks. Totaling three saves in the month wasn't ideal though. But that was partly down to the Dodgers' schedule and dominance.

In August, the Dodgers played 14 games against the Giants, Royals, and Marlins. In September, the Dodgers have 12 games against the Padres and Cardinals, plus eight against the suddenly hot Diamondbacks. So I suspect they won't win 15 games by four or more runs as they did in August.

Of course, the Dodgers blew out the Padres 12-1 last night and Kimbrel pitched a 1-2-3 eighth inning, striking out two. But it seems like it was a case of getting him some work given he hadn't pitched since Monday and it was only his third outing in the last two weeks.

The other bit of good news for Kimbrel's outlook is following his three straight outings of giving up a run, he's now gone five straight appearances without allowing a run (5.1 IP). All part of the roller-coaster Bubba was talking about.

Do I trust Kimbrel to have a good September and remain the Dodgers' closer? No. Would I be surprised if he went the rest of the season with a 1.25 ERA and picked up eight more saves? No. So as long as Kimbrel is at least the main closer for the Dodgers, I'm holding him and just riding the coaster to its conclusion.

Ty France – 1B/2B/3B, Seattle Mariners – 88% rostered

A week ago, I was all set to say France was droppable if you had a suitable replacement on waivers. As much as I like France (the baseball player, the country not so much), it seemed quite apparent he hadn't fully recovered from the elbow sprain that saw him miss time in late June/early July.

In fact, it had been a season of two halves for France. Pre-injury, he was great. Since returning from injury, he'd been awful. That was until last Sunday as we now appear to be entering the third half of France's season. Firstly, let's look at France's numbers before his IL stint and his numbers since then (up until last Sunday).

Since last Sunday, France has gone 10-for-24 with four homers, seven RBI, and six runs. That's given him a .283/.350/.450 slash line on the season with 18 homers, 69 RBI, 50 runs, and zero stolen bases.

As I mentioned in the introduction, I don't like basing drop or hold decisions on small sample sizes. But in this case, I'm making an exception. It seems the elbow issue that was widely believed to have been causing France to struggle has now dissipated to the point he's able to perform as we know he can. Or he's managed to fully recover from it.

Regardless of what happened or how it happened, the key is France appears to be healthy again. Given the only reason to drop France was he wasn't healthy, if that hurdle has been cleared and you've patiently held on to him this long, I wouldn't look at dropping him now.

Of course, if the elbow is still causing him issues but France is just going balls to the wall and hoping it doesn't get worse, we will need to monitor it closely. A setback or reoccurrence could end his season at any moment.

On the Hot Seat

Logan Webb – SP, San Francisco Giants – 95% rostered

After Webb's breakout 2021 season, he was one of the hottest pitchers in 2021 drafts and had a nice ADP of ~69, the 16th starting pitcher taken. His numbers suggest that lofty ADP was fully justified. In 27 starts, Webb has an 11-8 W-L record, 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 137 Ks (165.0 IP).

You might be wondering why he's on The Hot Seat, which is fair. It's a combination of things recently that have left Webb ranked as the 98th starting pitcher over the last 30 days according to Yahoo!. The biggest elephant in the room is the team he pitches for.

In his last three starts (15.0 IP), Webb has been tagged for 12 runs. But only three of them were earned. That was after this play was changed from a hit to an error which saved Webb six earned runs adding to his ERA, which is only 1.80 over his last three starts.

All of those three starts were losses for Webb and he didn't get through six innings in any of them. Again, it's hard to point the finger of blame at Webb for his recent lack of wins, especially given these trio of starts came on the back of an eight-inning shutout performance against the Pirates.

Poor defense has plagued the Giants all season. Their infield ranks 25th in Outs Above Average (OAA) with -11 while their outfield ranks last with -18 OAA. That's not going to magically fix itself in the final four weeks of the season.

And that poor defensive infield will impact Webb more than most any other pitcher. As a sinker/slider/changeup pitcher, it's no surprise that Webb has a 58.0% GB% (groundball rate) which is the second-highest among qualified starters.

Something Webb can control and hasn't helped himself with is his strikeouts. After putting up a 26.5% K% last year, which ranked in the 69th percentile, Webb only has a 20.3% K% in 2022 (34th percentile). Webb has had nine starts with three or fewer strikeouts this year. He had four such starts last year.

If he managed to maintain last year's strikeout rate, who knows how many unearned runs Webb could've saved himself from, how much deeper he could've gone into games, and how many more wins he could've tallied? Unfortunately, that's just wishful thinking for us fantasy managers.

The reality is, Webb has been very good and with more strikeouts or better defense (or ideally both), he'll be in the midst of a very very good season. But I'm not looking to drop Webb right now, as long as he's doing his part on the mound.

Yes, the wins likely won't be very forthcoming, especially if the Giants' defense continues with their ineptitude. But Webb still has a solid floor with only one start seeing him allow more than four earned runs and only four starts seeing him allow more than three earned runs.

Webb's strength in fantasy has been the ERA and WHIP but one thing to consider is that at this stage of the season, those ratios don't move nearly as much from start to start. So if you are in need of wins or strikeouts and have better options on the waivers than what Webb can provide, it's understandable if you move on from him.

Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Jurickson Profar – 1B/2B/OF, San Diego Padres – 66% rostered

After emerging as a legitimate fantasy option earlier in the season, Profar's shine has dimmed in recent weeks and he's finding himself on the waiver wire in more and more leagues. But is that warranted? If we compare his first-half and second-half numbers, he's been close to the same hitter throughout 2022.

Obviously, the second half is a smaller sample than the first half but it's important to note that overall, Profar has remained an above-league-average hitter since the All-Star break. And on the season, he ranks 53rd among all outfielders (according to Yahoo!), 28th among first basemen, and 24th among second basemen.

In total, Profar has 13 homers, 51 RBI, 71 runs, and five stolen bases while hitting .241/.339/.393. Nothing to shout about but solid production and certainly enough to warrant consideration in all but the shallowest of fantasy leagues.

But what about the rest of the season and should Profar remain rostered? Well, it comes down to what you need. Profar regularly bats lead-off for the Padres which will continue to see him score a solid number of runs. And his excellent 12.2% BB% (90th percentile) is more valuable in OBP leagues.

The decision as to whether or not to roster Profar comes down to how much you need runs to either maintain a lead or catch up. And in OBP (or most points) leagues, he can help you with his walks too. But Profar likely won't help much in other categories so the decision to drop Profar or not comes down to your roster constructions and who you could replace him with.

Jose Miranda – 1B/3B, Minnesota Twins – 63% rostered

Miranda is having a stellar rookie season. After putting up a .344/.401/.572 slash line with 30 homers in 127 games across Double-A and Triple-A last year. Miranda only hit two homers in 21 Triple-A games with a .256/.295/.442 slash line but still got the call to the Majors in May.

And with the Twins, he's hitting .272/.325/.4443 with 13 homers, 56 RBI, 36 runs, and one stolen base (94 games). I believe Miranda is a victim of over-expectation, hence his request for inclusion this week. After a sluggish start to his MLB career, Miranda found his swing in June and July before cooling off in August.

But if we look at his monthly numbers, it's not like he's cooled off to the point he's no longer a viable fantasy option.

Granted, the power diminished a bit in August but the counting stats were good, and expecting more than a handful of home runs and a .350 batting average isn't realistic. The main reason for the improved counting stats despite a drop-off in power and average is the move up the lineup and more regular playing time.

In August, Miranda has not only played more games than any other month but he also hit cleanup in 19 of the games, with the other eight being between the number three, five, and six spots. Providing that remains the same moving forward, there's no reason Miranda can't repeat his August in September.

There's little to no speed offered by Miranda, but generally, you don't find steals from your corner infielders. And with Miranda being able to fill in at either first or third base, he adds a bit more value in deeper leagues. But even in shallow leagues, he's a solid contributor.

Over the last 30 days, Miranda has ranked as the 121st best fantasy player on Yahoo!, 16th at first base, and 13th at third base. That's immediately rosterable in 10-team leagues. If you need runs and RBI, Miranda is likely going to be the best option available on waivers in the ~37% of leagues he's not being rostered. Just expect a repeat of August and not July.

Thairo Estrada – 2B/SS/OF, San Francisco Giants – 60% rostered

Estrada has had a productive year as a regular in the Giants lineup with his versatility keeping him in the lineup at multiple spots (mainly at second base). In 113 games, Estrada has 11 homers, 52 RBI, 57 runs, and 16 steals while hitting .263/.319/.404.

If we go back to last season, since joining the Giants, Estrada has played 165 games with 18 homers, 74 RBI, 76 runs, and 17 stolen bases with a .265/.322/.422 slash line. He's still only 26-years-old, so thinking he can have a 20/20 season over a full year isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

But for the remainder of this season, Estrada is clinging on to fantasy relevancy. He seems to be alternating good months with so-so months so if you believe in that sort of thing, he's due a big September. Below are his monthly splits.

Estrada did have a couple of IL stints in July and early August but it didn't appear to hamper him given the numbers he put up following his activation. And the August stint was from a concussion so wouldn't explain the reduced stolen bases which seem just more situational.

Given Estrada has been contributing across the board and only 10 other players can match or better his homers, RBI, runs, and stolen base totals, it might be worth keeping Estrada as a player your can just plug into your lineups at multiple positions and not have to worry too much about production.

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