The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 16

Welcome back to the Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now. To end June, I put out a call on Reddit for names you wanted me to include in last week's Cut List. I wasn't expecting the response I got with dozens of names being submitted. Some had been included in the last four weeks so I've omitted them and was left with 26 players who have either yet to feature or who haven't been included in over a month.

So I split them into two lots with last week featuring the first 13 names and this week contains the remaining 13 players. As always, if there's anyone you specifically want to know whether to drop or hold who isn't included in the article, mention them on the Reddit thread or give me a shout on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and I'll answer your questions on them. This isn't a "hard and fast" list of definite players to drop, but hopefully, it will act as a tool to help you with your roster decisions.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone for a random player who is on the only hot streak he'll ever have in his career. We're at the official midway point of the season with the All-Star break following today so we have more than enough of a sample size on most players to base our decisions on. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing

Jeff McNeil - 2B/3B/OF, New York Mets - 66% rostered

My concern about McNeil early in the season was the fact he was hitting in the bottom half of the Mets lineup. McNeil's fantasy value was tied in with his batting average, which if he maintained would mean he would hit atop the order and therefore provide valuable counting stats. Given he entered the season with a career .319 average (248 games), it was safe to believe he'd maintain his .300 average this year and continue being a source of runs and RBI. The 23 homers he hit in 2019 did seem a bit of an outlier but it wasn't overly optimistic to expect 12-15 this year.

After missing some time with injuries, McNeil has played 52 games this year and is having a career-worst season with a .255/.337/.342 slash line with three homers, 19 runs, 14 RBI and one steal. McNeil was inserted back as the Mets leadoff hitter prior to getting hurt and it was promising to see him return there when he came back from injury. Unfortunately, in his first 12 games back from the IL, he hit .184/.244/.184 and since last weekend, has been hitting no higher than fifth in the lineup. He hasn't homered in the 20 games since his return from injury and unless he gets hot at the plate and works his way back to the top of the order, his value will be limited. Given his expected batting average (xBA) is .247, that might not be as forthcoming as you'd think.

Verdict - The positional flexibility McNeil offers is nice in deeper leagues and he should still be rostered in such leagues given his track record. But in shallower leagues, there are normally enough options on waivers to fill in at any position and simply put, McNeil isn't contributing in any category right now. So he can be dropped if there is someone on waivers who can help you where needed, which at this stage of the season is pretty likely.

Dallas Keuchel - SP, Chicago White Sox - 61% rostered

Keuchel had one of his best starts of the season on Friday, going 7.0 IP against the Orioles and allowing one earned run on seven hits and a walk. It was a much-needed bounce-back performance after giving up seven earned runs in four innings against the Tigers last weekend. Friday's outing dropped his ERA down to 4.25 on the year with a 1.38 WHIP. Since 2013, only once has Keuchel's ERA been higher than 4.25 (2016) and his WHIP would be his worst since 2013. His 13.9% K% is also his lowest since his debut season in 2012. Despite his declining numbers, Keuchel does have a 7-3 record from his 17 starts although he's only had seven quality starts.

The low strikeout numbers are expected from Keuchel, given he had a career 19.0% K% prior to this year. His underlying numbers don't offer much hope that his numbers do improve soon either. He's got a 5.69 xERA (ninth percentile), 4.36 xFIP and 4.67 SIERA while his xBA is .305 (second percentile) and is considerably worse than his .268 batting average allowed. His .489 xSLG is in the 12th percentile and his .368 xwOBA is in the ninth percentile. Other than the fact he's pitching on a good team, there's very little reason to be optimistic about Keuchel having a better second half.

Verdict - In shallow leagues, Keuchel only really offers value as a streaming option, especially if you need a win. He's been too unreliable to start every time as evidenced by two of his worst starts coming against Detroit and Baltimore. In deep leagues, you can still roster him and hope he is able to help with your ratios as well as wins but trying to pick and choose when to start him is far from an exact science.

C.J. Cron - 1B, Colorado Rockies - 37% rostered

When Cron signed with the Rockies during the last offseason, expectations were that he'd provided a cheap source of power later in drafts (ADP ~ 222). That has yet to fully materialize with just 11 homers in 73 games so far. Cron also has 34 runs and 34 RBI with a .246/.358/.443 line, the slugging percentage being his lowest since 2017. His 22.9% K% is only marginally higher than his career mark of 22.1% and his walk rate of 11.8% is considerably better than his 6.3% career BB%. The Rockies have been a let down collectively again this year and Cron only ranks tied-19th in homers, 20th in runs and 25th in RBI among first basemen.

Cron does rank in the 94th percentile in maximum exit velocity (114.7 MPH) so has flashed immense power but it's been inconsistent as evidenced by him being in only the 45th percentile when it comes to average exit velocity (88.9 MPH). His expected numbers are almost identical to his actual numbers so there's no reason to expect any significant correction with them. He could still wind up being traded which could help his value if he can improve his counting stats on a new team. Cron did suffer a scary moment on Thursday when he was struck on the helmet by a pitch but has cleared the concussion protocol and returned to the lineup on Friday, which is always good to see after such an incident.

Verdict - Cron is a borderline corner infielder in deeper leagues given where he ranks among his peers. He has missed some time but not significant enough to counter the lack of runs and RBI. A trade might change his fantasy value but for now, he should only be considered roster worthy in shallower leagues if you need a first baseman and lack power, especially if the Rockies have a homestand coming up. 

Hold For Now

Eugenio Suarez - 3B/SS, Cincinnati Reds - 84% rostered

I've mentioned this seemingly every week for two months, but Suarez has become "Joey Gallo Lite." Dating back through last season, Suarez has played 142 games and has 33 homers with a .186/.278/.412 line. In that same timeframe, Gallo has played 141 games, has 34 homers and a .215/.362/.463 line. Suarez has basically been a slightly worse version of Gallo but with an ADP of ~68 compared to Gallo's ~148, has provided significantly less value. Suarez has also scored 11 fewer runs this year, has two fewer RBI and has zero steals compared to Gallo's six.

Rostering Suarez basically comes down to how needy your team is for home runs. If you can accept the negative impact he has on your team's batting average, then keep him. While he does have an xBA of .212 and offers hope he can hit above .200 the rest of the season, that xBA is still in the sixth percentile. His .435 xSLG is in the 51st percentile and .314 xwOBA is in the 33rd percentile so his power numbers do suggest he can still top 30 homers this year. You just need to decide if it's worth it on your roster.

Michael Conforto - OF, New York Mets - 71% rostered

Conforto is having by far the worst season of his career. He's heading into the All-Star Break with a .195/.342/.277 line with two homers, no steals, 15 runs and 16 RBI from 51 games. He missed over a month with a hamstring injury and since returning from the IL on June 23, he's hitting a paltry .109/.311/.130 with just one extra-base hit in 61 plate appearances. For a player who had an ADP of ~74, being ranked 995th on the ESPN Player Rater (behind Wilmer Difo, Jordy Mercer and Donovan Walton) isn't a good look.

However, I am going to preach some patience with Conforto. As regular readers of The Cut List will know, I like to give a longer leash to players with a longer track record of success. In 632 MLB games prior to this season, Conforto had 118 homers with a .259/.358/.484 slash line. Between 2017-19, Conforto hit 88 homers in 413 games with a .257/.363/.492 line. And even this year, he has a .245 xBA, .401 xSLG and .349 xwOBA (which is in the 68th percentile). Despite his struggles, Conforto has a career-high 14.8% BB% which is in the 92nd percentile. He's projected for 10-12 homers and a ~.245 batting average in the second half which would still hold fantasy relevance, even in shallower leagues. If he's still hitting below .200 at the end of July, then I think we can revisit giving him a longer leash.

Max Kepler - OF, Minnesota Twins - 41% rostered

Kepler is another outfielder who has been limited to just 54 games this year due to injury. But he has been productive when on the field with nine homers, seven steals, 30 runs and 33 RBI with a .216/.306/.443 slash line. The seven steals are already a career-high and his 162-game pace of 27 homers would be his second-most in a season (36 in 2019). Kepler's career batting average prior to this year was .237 so hitting .216 isn't a huge drop-off. Kepler's xBA is .256 so he's actually been unfortunate not to be having a much better year than what he's having.

If we compare below his 2021 Statcast profile with 2019 (when he hit .252/.336/.519 and 36 homers in 134 games), you'd be forgiven for thinking this year is the best of his career and not two years ago. We don't know what the Twins will do at the deadline or who they will trade, but Kepler is under contract through 2023 so might not find himself somewhere else this season. If he does stay in Minnesota while they trade away such players as Nelson Cruz and/or Josh Donaldson, his value could drop. But the fact he's running more than ever has significantly better expected stats than his actuals and is basically performing around his preseason projections (albeit having missed time on the IL), I'm more inclined to give Kepler more time and not drop him unless you're in a very shallow league. I'd still rank Kepler as a top-50 outfielder rest of the season but that could change if the Twins have a fire-sale or if Kepler does get traded and isn't an everyday player on his new team.

On the Hot Seat

Yoan Moncada - 3B, Chicago White Sox  - 90% rostered

Moncada had an ADP of ~85 this offseason so it's understandable to be disappointed with his numbers so far this year. In 76 games, he's hit five homers, has two steals, 37 runs and 39 RBI with a .274/.398/.393 line. After hitting just six homers in 52 games last year, it's fair to believe Moncada won't be a regular 20 plus homers a season hitter. Most concerning is the lack of steals at the Major League level with just two in his last 129 games dating back to the beginning of 2020.

At the Minor League level, Moncada had 111 steals in 272 games but has just 27 in 472 Major League games. Considering his sprint speed has ranked in the 68th percentile over the last two seasons (according to Statcast), it might be unrealistic to expect more than 10-12 steals a season but he should still be given more opportunities than the three attempted steals he's had this year.

What has been Moncada's biggest disappointment in my eyes has been the lack of runs and RBI. Moncada has exclusively hit between the second and fourth spots in the White Sox lineup, a team that ranks fourth in runs scored this year, so scoring just 37 runs and having 39 RBI is a letdown. Especially when we compare that to his teammate Jose Abreu. Abreu has hit either third or fourth in every game this year, has a career-low slugging percentage yet is outperforming Moncada considerably in counting stats.

Obviously, Abreu hitting 10 more homers will always likely mean more RBI but 74% more seems a little excessive. And scoring eight more runs despite a considerably lower OBP also seems a little harsh on Moncada. Among first baseman, Abreu ranks tied-11th in runs scored and second in RBI. Meanwhile, Moncada ranks tied-15th in runs and 16th in RBI among third baseman. With a little bit more luck with the counting stats, Moncada would likely be a top-10 third baseman in both categories.

Moncada is a classic case of not returning value given his ADP but is still being rosterable in fantasy leagues. The runs and RBI are still good and corner-infield worthy in shallower leagues but the lack of power and steals only make him borderline at the position in 10-team leagues. He could still end the season with 12-15 homers, five steals and 70-75 runs and RBI which would make him a solid corner infielder in shallower leagues still. His elite 15.8% BB% also makes him a solid third baseman in OBP leagues.

The Reddit Requests

Here are the remaining six names from the Reddit Requests. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa - C/3B/SS, Texas Rangers  - 91% rostered

Kiner-Falefa has a so-so .261/.298/.367 line on the year with six homers and 30 RBI in 87 games. His biggest asset so far this year has been his speed with 15 stolen bases which has also helped him towards scoring 45 runs. He's currently 8th in MLB for steals and is tied-60th overall in runs scored. He's been the everyday shortstop for the Rangers and has moved between hitting seventh and leadoff throughout the season. Unfortunately, he's in the midst of an ice-cold streak, hitting just .158/.213/.193 over his last 15 games which led to him moving back down the order this week. In Yahoo! leagues where Kiner-Falefa has catcher eligibility, he's much more valuable and is an easy keep. My concern is that his last stolen base came on June 13th and he's only attempted one since. Of course, his cold streak makes it difficult to get steals when he's not getting on base regularly. Unless that trend continues throughout the remainder of July, I'm not considering dropping Kiner-Falefa just yet even in leagues when he doesn't have catcher eligibility.

Tommy Edman - 2B/3B/SS/OF, St. Louis Cardinals - 87% rostered

I could easily just insert *see Kiner-Falefa* for my Edman analysis as their numbers are so similar. But I'm not that lazy, despite what my old school teachers will tell you. Edman has a .258/.299/.371 line with five homers, 47 runs, 25 RBI and 16 steals in 88 games. He's tied-50th overall in runs scored and only five players have more steals on the year. Up until June 24th, Edman had started exclusively as the Cardinals leadoff hitter, but St. Louis mixed things up following a rough stretch, moved Edman to sixth in the order and since then, he's hit just .211/.237/.333 (15 games). He has hit leadoff three times in that spell still and unlike Kiner-Falefa, has already tallied two steals in July. Edman didn't start last night but pinch-hit a two-run homer in the Cardinals 6-0 victory over the Cubs. If he can warm up again after being shunted down the order, there's a chance he returns as a regular fixture in the leadoff spot again and he's still providing enough runs and steals to be rostered in any league.

Cavan Biggio - 2B/3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays - 80% rostered

It's been a season of three parts for Biggio so far. The first part saw him hit .205/.315/.315 with three homers and two steals in 39 games. The second part came when he hit the IL with a cervical spine ligament sprain which saw him miss three weeks. Biggio returned on June 11th and the third part of his season has been the most successful for him. In the 24 games he's played since returning, Biggio is hitting .269/.366/.474 with three homers, 10 runs and 12 RBI. I was a tad concerned he'd not attempted a steal since returning from his injury, but he finally picked up his third stolen base of the season on Friday. Given he's only been caught stealing once in his four attempts this year, there shouldn't be any problems with him not getting green-lighted on the bases. Biggio's fantasy value will be significantly diminished if the stolen bases don't come more frequently as he was drafted as a potential 20/20 player but he's been hitting well enough lately and accumulating runs and RBI while chipping in with some homers. Providing he doesn't revert back to the first part of the season version, Biggio is still worth rostering in any league and is especially more valuable in OBP leagues.

Austin Riley - 3B/OF, Atlanta Braves - 79% rostered

Riley is in the midst of having a breakout season with a .280/.363/.474 slash line from 87 games. He's hit 14 homers, scored 42 runs and driven in 42 runs. Among third basemen, he's tied-11th in homers, tied-10th in runs and tied-11th in RBI. Considering the Braves have been a disappointment this year, Riley has impressed in putting up those numbers and earned the role of clean-up hitter where he's been for the majority of games since late May. Promisingly for Riley, his expected stats are all similar to his actual stats (.273 xBA, .497 xSLG and .365 xwOBA with a .356 wOBA). The concern for fantasy managers who roster Riley is the apparent lack of power since May. Heading into June, Riley had 10 homers and since June 01st he's been hitting .248/.314/.401 with just four homers. That's not something I'm too worried about and I still expect Riley to finish the season with 25+ homers, 75+ runs and RBI with a ~.270 average. The season-ending injury to Ronald Acuna Jr. (get healthy soon Ronald) is a huge blow to him and the Braves and will no doubt impact Riley's counting stats. He should still end the year as a borderline top-12 third baseman (who also has outfield eligibility) at season's end and someone definitely worth rostering for the rest of 2021.

Frankie Montas - SP, Oakland Athletics - 76% rostered

Thursday saw Montas have arguably his best start of the season, going 6.2 IP and allowing just one run while striking out ten against the Astros. That was the third time Montas has faced the Astros this year and he's allowed just four earned runs in 17.2 IP against them. He managed to lower his ERA to a respectable 4.41 on the year and upped his record to 8-7. It's been an up and down year for the A's starter who had a 6.75 ERA after his first four starts of the year. He lowered it to 4.21 before getting blown up against the Rangers in June (eight earned runs in 5.2 IP). Montas' underlying numbers do offer hope of continued improvements with a 3.97 xFIP and 3.94 SIERA. His 24.2% K% is similar to the previous two years and he's continuing with his good BB% of recent times with it sitting at 6.5%. Montas is more of a streaming option in shallow leagues but he's about an SP5 in 12+ team leagues so still warrants rostering, even if you sit him in certain spots.

Tyler O'Neill - OF, St. Louis Cardinals - 63% rostered

O'Neill is having himself a very good year and already has career highs in homers (15), runs (38), RBI (37), steals (seven) and the best slash line of his career (.275/.333/.546). He only had 171 MLB games since debuting in 2018 prior to this season and the 68 Major League games he's played this year are already the most he's played in any season too. O'Neill turned 26 years old last month so is entering what should be the prime years of his career and he's certainly having a career year. The disappointment with O'Neill is the fact he's only managed to score 38 runs and tally 37 RBI but that's largely been down to the Cardinals' struggling offense over the last six weeks. He's worked his way up to be the clean-up hitter so the counting stats should be better moving forward. Fantasy managers' concerns about O'Neill are likely borne from the lack of homers recently with his last one coming on June 09th. He's only hit .244/.348/.346 since then too while being 2-for-4 in stolen base attempts. But O'Neill's expected stats are actually better than his actual numbers and his xwOBA of .404 is in the 95th percentile. If anything, I think O'Neill is a "buy-low" candidate if his existing fantasy manager is frustrated with his recent lack of production.

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