The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 15

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 15 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- July 1 through July 7. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. We've passed the midway point of the season so cases for dropping players have strengthened. As the season continues to roll on, there will be other reasons to potentially drop underperforming players.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Jordan Montgomery - SP, Arizona Diamondbacks - 62% rostered

Montgomery has already featured as a droppable player this season. Three consecutive starts with a win and a 2.70 ERA earlier in June resulted in fantasy managers once again believing in Montgomery. Those three starts also had a 4.06 xFIP and 3.98 SIERA, so there was still concern about the Diamondbacks starter. And those concerns were justified after Montgomery gave up eight runs (four earned) against the Twins on Thursday.

There was some misfortune in play given half of the runs were unearned. But, Montgomery still allowed nine hits and one walk while retiring only eight of the 20 batters he faced. That start has left him with a 6-5 W-L record, 6.03 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and 45 Ks (65.2 IP). When you don't strike out many batters (15.1% K%), those sorts of "bad luck" outings will happen more frequently. It was clear how frustrated Montgomery was afterward.

The complete collapse of Jordan Montgomery this season has been pretty wild to see. pic.twitter.com/x3dsmU0KRE

— Ryan Bloomfield (@RyanBHQ) June 27, 2024

Even if we look at Montgomery's underlying numbers, there's nothing to get excited about. His 4.53 xFIP and 4.81 SIERA are both better than his ERA. But both fail to offer much hope of a rosy outlook. Last year's 3.20 ERA was a bit misleading given Montgomery had a 4.01 xFIP and 4.23 SIERA. And there has been an overcorrection this year. No matter how we look at it, Montgomery has been a big disappointment in fantasy this year.

Verdict: The six wins have been nice. But they haven't offset the negative impact of Montgomery's ERA, WHIP, and lack of strikeouts. Given how fluky wins are, relying on them from a pitcher with an ERA over 6.00 is far from ideal. I'm sure Montgomery will have some good starts over the remainder of 2024. I just wouldn't want to be the one to try and work out when they will be and suffer the impact of the bad outings in the process.

Jordan Hicks - SP/RP, San Francisco Giants - 57% rostered

Given how bad Montgomery has been compared to Hicks, it feels strange putting them in the same category. While I have no issue dropping Montgomery in any format, Hicks isn't quite as straightforward of a case. After 17 starts, Hicks has a 4-4 W-L record, 3.36 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 76 Ks (85.2 IP). Hicks has two fewer wins than Montgomery in four more starts and an ERA 2.67 better. That acts as a reminder of how fluky wins are.

Hicks hasn't been going deep in games often enough to help tally more wins. He's only completed six innings on three occasions and not since April 27. In quality start leagues, his value is even more suppressed. Hicks' five June starts only totaled 22.1 IP and had a 5.24 ERA. He also walked 14 batters in those outings. Not exactly inspiring.

Ordinarily, if a pitcher has been very good for the first two months of the season, I'd be more forgiving of a bad June. But this case is a little different. Hicks' 4.03 xFIP and 4.15 SIERA hint at further regression. The more pressing concern is his workload. After converting to a starter this offseason, Hicks has already topped his MLB high for innings pitched. He's closing in on the 105.0 IP he threw in 2017 as a minor leaguer. How many more innings can we expect this year?

Verdict: If you've enjoyed the value from Hicks this season, you should make the most of it. There are question marks over how much value Hicks can provide during the second half of the season. He's far from an automatic drop, but is someone I'd have no issue dropping in shallow leagues. He may still have trade value so explore that first. Otherwise, sending Hicks to waivers is not something you should second guess yourself on.

Hold For Now

Brent Rooker - OF, Oakland Athletics - 67% rostered

Rooker was a cheap source of power in drafts this year. After hitting 30 homers in 2023, his ADP (averaged draft position) was still only ~289 coming into this season. On the surface, he has certainly provided value for that draft-day capital. In 70 games, Rooker has 15 homers, 47 RBI, 29 runs, and two stolen bases with a .265/.340/.514 slash line.

The perception has been that Rooker has had a bad June. Hence why he's been dropped at a high rate. However, Rooker appears to be a victim of his own success. In May, he hit .330/ .407/.590 with six home runs in 26 games. In reality, that pace was never going to be sustained. If we look at his rolling slash line throughout the season, it shows how good Rooker's May was.

It also shows us that Rooker's slump isn't that bad. He's still hit .236/.296/.461 in June with four homers in 24 games. For context, he hit .246/.329/.488 last year. As long as Rooker plays for the Athletics, his value will be capped. Oakland ranks 28th in runs scored (305) and that's not going to change anytime soon. But, Rooker will still hit for power so unless you're in a league where the available outfielder pool is deep, he's worth holding.

Brenton Doyle - OF, Colorado Rockies - 67% rostered

It may seem like Doyle emerged from nowhere to become a fantasy star to begin the season. While there is some partial truth to that, Doyle also makes a strong case for "post-hype sleepers" in drafts. Although not considered an elite prospect, Doyle was a well-regarded prospect in the Rockies organization before making his MLB debut in 2023. He at least managed to show off his speed in 2023.

In 126 games last year, Doyle hit .203/.250/.343 with 10 homers, 48 RBI, 48 runs, and 22 stolen bases. That lowly batting average and not much else being offered suppressed Doyle's ADP (~413). He's outperformed that so far with a .258/.321/.385 slash line, seven home runs, 27 RBI, 45 runs, and 19 steals (78 games). Since May 1, Doyle has only hit .228/.302/.328 with a 66 wRC+. Importantly, he's still tallied 15 stolen bases in that time.

You may think his April was just a fluke when Doyle hit .311/.355/.485. While it's not something I'd expect to see over a longer period, Doyle did have good numbers in the minor leagues. He hit .287/.347/.496 in (292 games), along with 55 home runs. Doyle has been hitting first or second in the lineup for most of June. Between that, playing in Colorado, his defense keeping him in the lineup, and his speed, there's just enough to like about Doyle to keep him rostered.

On the Hot Seat

Maikel Garcia - 3B/SS, Kansas City Royals - 83% rostered

Garcia had plenty of intrigue coming into this season. After stealing 23 bases in 123 games last year while hitting .272/.323/.358, the thought of him hitting leadoff appealed. Getting stolen bases from the third-base position isn't easy in fantasy so it was no surprise that Garcia had an ADP of ~211. After 83 games, Garcia has five homers, 40 RBI, 51 runs, and 21 steals with a .232/.285/.343 slash line.

There were concerns about Garcia's value plummeting last weekend when he slipped down the Royals batting order to seventh and eighth. If we look at Garcia's numbers by month, we can see why. The good news is that Garcia was reinstated atop the lineup on Monday and has been there ever since. And in potentially even better news, he's been playing second base and is set to get fantasy eligibility at the position in July (if not already in some formats).

When drafting Garcia, fantasy managers wouldn't have been expecting much help in RBI, and double-digit home runs were not a given. So the fact he's managed to chip in accordingly in both categories has been nice. And that has made up for the disappointing batting average Garcia has produced. It's also helped him rank 45th among all hitters on Yahoo! (standard 5x5 roto scoring).

Garcia provided hope that can get things going again against the Guardians before this weekend. He started the four-game series by going 3-for-9 with a triple, a double, three RBI, one run, and two stolen bases. Unfortunately, he followed that up with a 0-for-4 performance last night. Fantasy managers might also take some comfort that Garcia has better expected numbers as we can see from his Statcast profile.

Hopefully, Garcia can put last night behind him, have a good game today, and use this weekend as a catalyst to restart his season. If so, there's no reason we don't see his batting average climb. He's been running plenty in June without getting on base much. So a .~260 batting average should lead to better things. As long as Garcia is leading off and can get out of his slump, he's worth holding on to.

If by the end of July, Garcia's batting average is nearer .200 and he's regularly hitting seventh or eighth, then his inclusion on fantasy rosters will need reviewing. For now, ride out the slump, and (fingers crossed) we'll reap the rewards in the second half.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Kevin Gausman - SP, Toronto Blue Jays - 96% rostered

Back in the season's infancy, Gausman was featured in The Cut List as a hold. He'd gotten off to a rough start with a 4.95 ERA in mid-May. While things haven't been great, they have been much better. In his eight subsequent starts, Gausman has a 3.75 ERA. On Tuesday against Boston, Gausman hurled his seventh quality start of the season (all in his last 12 outings).

It wasn't the prettiest of quality starts and came on the back of a disappointing performance against the same opponents. That inconsistency has left some fantasy managers wondering what to do with Gausman. Simply put, I wouldn't be considering dropping him. That doesn't mean I have no concerns with him myself. His fantasy stat line isn't great, with a 6-6 W-L record, 4.26 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 84 Ks (86.2 IP).

However, his 3.61 xFIP and 3.73 SIERA offer a perspective that Gausman has been a bit unlucky. His 22.8% K% is at a six-year low but the 5.4% BB% has helped keep his WHIP (and ERA) in check. Gausman's struggles have stemmed from a below-average fastball (thrown 52.3% of the time) and a declining splitter (used 34.0% of the time). His fastball has a .386 wOBA against it and is averaging 93.7 mph (down from 94.7 mph last year).

Gausman's splitter has a 32.6% Whiff%. While that seems good, last year it had a 43.2% Whiff%. Simply put, the two pitches Gausman throws more than 85% of the time have been far less effective this year. When it's working, Gausman's splitter has been exceptional. But that hasn't been frequent enough this year to make him as effective as previous seasons.

Kevin Gausman, Filthy 86mph Splitter. 😷 pic.twitter.com/IfT3hv1ksV

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 19, 2024

While it certainly does look like we're in for some decline from Gausman as he enters his mid-30s, it's too soon to panic. Having topped 174.0 IP in each of his last three seasons, Gausman continues to be a workhorse and should at least come close to continuing that streak. In what is becoming a bleak pitching landscape for fantasy due to a myriad of injuries, Gausman's greatest ability might just be his availability. He's still worth holding.

Bryce Miller - SP, Seattle Mariners - 88% rostered

The Mariners came into 2024 with one of the most exciting young rotations we've seen for many years. Including the currently injured Bryan Woo as the fifth starter, all five have an ERA under 4.00. Miller has certainly held his own with a 6-7 W-L record, 3.88 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 91 Ks (97.1 IP). Last night, Miller took the loss despite allowing just two runs in five innings. It was a nice bounce back after last weekend's shellacking.

Last Sunday, Miller lasted just four innings and allowed six earned runs against the Marlins. The concern for fantasy managers stemmed from the fact that was Miller's second blowup in June. He was tagged by the Royals for seven earned runs on June 7. Even with those two starts, Miller's June ERA is 4.68 ERA from his six starts (32.2 IP). We also saw Miller allow nine earned runs in two starts in May (11.1 IP).

They were at the Yankees and Orioles. Miller is by no means a must-start. However, given the number of injured starters we've seen and how good Miller has been, it's tough to justify dropping him. In shallow leagues, there may be an option to stream Miller. But, if you did drop him, there's a very good chance he will be picked up. That'll leave you having to scramble for someone else to start on a daily or weekly basis. Miller should still be held onto.

Ryan Pepiot - SP/RP, Tampa Bay Rays - 71% rostered

We have had some glimpses of Pepiot's promise with the Dodgers over the previous two years. So when he was traded to the Rays this offseason, there was optimism about his 2024 prospects. While it's difficult to call him a disappointment, Pepiot hasn't quite lived up to his billing. After 14 starts, he's sporting a 4-4 W-L record, 4.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 83 Ks (71.2 IP).

It was a rocky June for Pepiot, yielding 14 earned runs in 20 innings across his first four starts. But he ended the month in encouraging fashion, striking out eight Mariners in 5.1 IP and allowing just one run. In truth, Pepiot's 5.33 ERA this month was somewhat inflated given he also had a 3.46 xFIP and 3.34 SIERA. Pepiot's Statcast profile gives us an indication of where his success lies moving forward.

With a .119 batting average and .240 wOBA against it, Pepiot's fastball has been one of the best in the league. Given he's thrown it 52.1% of the time, that's been crucial. His changeup (thrown 21.1%), however, has been poor. It has a .318 batting average and a .386 wOBA against it. With only a total of 150.0 IP in the major leagues, it's fair to say Pepiot is still developing his arsenal and is in one of the best places to maximize his talents.

In his first full season as a starting pitcher, Pepiot has equipped himself well. There will be some more bumps in the road. I don't expect his command to continue to suffer like it has in his last three starts (15.3% BB%). There have been more than enough encouraging signs from Pepiot and his 28.7% K% offers a nice floor in fantasy. I'd be holding Pepiot in all formats and would look at adding him if he's available for what could be a big second half of the season.

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