The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 14

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 14 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- June 24 through June 30. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the season rolls on, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Jake Burger - 1B/3B, Miami Marlins - 55% rostered

Burger announced himself last year, hitting 34 homers in 141 games. He was a popular pick in drafts this year but has failed to deliver on that promise of power. After 54 games, Burger has six homers, 24 RBI, 22 runs, and no stolen bases with a .216/.257/.341 slash line. He did miss three weeks earlier in the season with a left intercostal muscle strain, but he's been back for six weeks and only hit .212/.247/.311 since returning.

There is still some thump in Burger's bat. However, the 34 home runs last year may be an outlier. He flashed decent power in the minors but not enough to suggest he could threaten a 40-homer season. Between 2021 and 2022, Burger played 121 Triple-A games and hit 23 home runs. And 25 of last year's homers came with the White Sox (88 games) with nine being hit after Burger was traded to the Marlins (53 games).

That means Burger has only homered 15 times in 107 games with Miami. That's not to say last season was a fluke as his power was skills-supported. His Statcast Profile below highlights that. The fact is this year, Burger's quality of contact has dropped. As a result, we're not going to see 30+ homers this year.

Verdict: There is generally no shortage of corner infielders who can hit 20-25 home runs. The problem with Burger is that whilst he has that capability, it comes at a cost. His batting average is certainly not helping your teams and the Marlins offense will limit his RBI and runs. It's unlikely you'll find a better option in deep leagues. Unless you are in serious need of power, Burger isn't going to help in shallower league sizes.

Nathaniel Lowe - 1B, Texas Rangers - 53% rostered

This spot was originally going to be taken by Anthony Rizzo but his injury has meant he is very much droppable in all formats. So our attentions turn to another American League first baseman. And one that has an almost opposite profile to that of Burger. As far as first basemen go, Lowe has little power. His 27 homers in 2022 was a career-high and in 475 games between 2021 and 2023, Lowe totaled 62 home runs.

The only time Lowe topped 20 homers in a season was 2022, but that's not to say he hasn't carried fantasy value. During those three seasons, Lowe also had 230 RBI, 230 runs, and a .276 batting average. He's one of only 20 players who managed those numbers in that time. This year, however, Lowe is hitting .257/.355/.342 with two homers, 21 RBI, 22 runs, and two stolen bases (55 games).

Lowe didn't make his season debut until April 20 due to an oblique strain but it's difficult to pin that on his struggles given he's now more than two months removed from the injury. Lowe's ability to put the ball in play and excellent supporting cast have allowed him to be an accumulator. The type of player that's underappreciated in fantasy. A "start and forget" type of bat. This year, that has not been the case.

Verdict: The Rangers offense hasn't been the prolific run-scorers they were last year and Lowe hasn't been as good a hitter as recent seasons. That's left him flagging as a fantasy asset. His 13.2% BB% (94th percentile) does mean he carries value in OBP (and some points) leagues. Without a significant change in Lowe's hitting or the Rangers' collective offense, he simply won't be able to provide value in standard leagues.

Hold For Now

Andres Munoz - RP, Seattle Mariners - 94% rostered

Concern about Munoz's role developed in early June. Munoz picked up a save on May 31, he then didn't register another one until June 18. In that period, Ryne Stanek had four saves in six appearances. Munoz was confirmed to be dealing with back discomfort but managed to avoid an IL stint. The Mariners proceeded with caution and thankfully, Munoz appears to be over the issue.

Here's the latest on Andrés Muñoz and his lower back strain, who indicated that he should avoid an IL stint.

"It's really inconsistent. But we've been managing it really good, and I feel like we're in a really good spot right now."https://t.co/lP7j5PVFB2

— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) June 6, 2024

Although not a save situation, Friday's usage was telling. Stanek pitched the eighth inning with Munoz getting the ninth in a tie game. The fact Munoz had to face the 2-3-4 hitters tells us that the Mariners still see Munoz as their best option out of the bullpen. That might mean he's used in higher-leverage situations before the ninth inning but there's nothing to suggest he won't be the the team's saves leader over the rest of 2024.

Munoz has excelled this year. He's sporting a 2-3 W-L record, 1.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 42 Ks, and 13 saves (31 2/3 IP). It's unlikely Munoz can maintain a sub-1.50 ERA all season considering his 2.48 xFIP and 2.32 SIERA but both are still excellent and better than Stanek's numbers. Providing Munoz can avoid lingering back issues or a significant flare-up, he's still set to be one of the best closer options in fantasy.

Walker Buehler - SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - 82% rostered

Buehler should act as a reminder that returning from Tommy John Surgery (TJS) is far from straightforward. It's certainly not guaranteed that a pitcher will be able to perform at the same level as before. Buehler was placed on the IL earlier this week with hip discomfort. A comebacker struck him on Tuesday but Buehler was dealing with a hip issue prior, so an IL stint was almost inevitable.

When Buehler returns, he'll be looking to improve on his numbers so far. After eight starts (37 IP), Buehler has a 1-4 W-L record, 5.84 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, and 31 Ks. Before returning to the mound in early May, Buehler hadn't thrown a pitch in the majors since June 10, 2022. Considering that, it wasn't reasonable to expect Buehler to be an ace again so soon.

Having been placed on the IL, that's exactly what I'd recommend doing for your fantasy teams. We don't know how much of Buehler's struggles were down to the hip issue and/or the recovery from TJS. We do know Buehler was excellent before the TJS. So, it's prudent to see how he returns from this latest issue. His 4.19 xFIP and 4.18 SIERA hint that there's better to come, although still a ways to go before Buehler can be a top option again.

On the Hot Seat

Jesus Luzardo - SP, Miami Marlins - 81% rostered

In what seems like the millionth week in a row, the Hot Seat candidate found themselves on the IL just a couple of days before featuring. Luzardo was placed on the IL with what was described as a lumbar stress reaction. In layman's terms, Luzardo has the dreaded bad back. He's set to miss at least four weeks as a result.

#Marlins manager Skip Schumaker said the timeline for a lumbar stress reaction — the diagnosis for Jesús Luzardo — can be 4-6 weeks.

— Christina De Nicola (@CDeNicola13) June 22, 2024

Given that Luzardo has been dealing with a bad back, there's every chance this could have been an issue for some weeks. It would help explain Luzardo's struggles in 2024. After 12 starts, he has a 3-6 W-L record, 5.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 58 Ks (66.2 IP). Luzardo has been a bit unfortunate given he has a 4.12 xFIP and 4.20 SIERA. The real concern has been a lack of strikeouts.

Luzardo's 21.2% K% is significantly down from last year (28.1% K%). Luzardo's fastball has been considerably worse this year, so it's no surprise. His four-seamer's average velocity is 95.2 MPH (down 1.5 MPH from last year). It has been hit harder this year with a .370 wOBA against it (.301 wOBA in 2023). He's not been able to get into a position often enough to maximize his slider and change up.

Like with Buehler, it's worth putting Luzardo on the IL and then waiting for him to return and see how he fares. If after a few starts off the IL, Luzardo is still struggling, his fastball velocity is still down, and it's still getting hit hard then dropping him would make sense. If he has been dealing with the back issue for some time and can fully recover from it over the next few weeks, he could be a huge fantasy asset on his return.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Freddy Peralta - SP, Milwaukee Brewers - 97% rostered

While other pitchers on this week's Cut List have landed on the IL, Peralta reminded us of his qualities. Peralta fired six shutout innings on Wednesday which has left him with a 5-4 W-L record, 4.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 106 Ks (82 IP). His 31.0% K% ranks in the 91st percentile and it's only an elevated ERA that is causing some concern for fantasy managers.

There's good news on that front. Peralta also has a 3.36 xFIP and 3.16 SIERA. Both are better than in each of his last three seasons during which time Peralta had a 3.41 ERA (388.0 IP). Wednesday was also a nice bounceback from his six-run outing against the Reds (5 1/3 IP). After starting June with a 7.90 ERA in his first three starts, he looks to have righted the ship. Peralta is very much a hold in fantasy.

Rhys Hoskins - 1B, Milwaukee Brewers - 67% rostered

Hoskins missed the entire 2023 season due to an ACL tear. That meant expectations were down coming into this season. Considering his lost year, Hoskins has been performing pretty well. After 56 games, he's got 10 homers, 31 RBI, 22 runs, and two stolen bases with a .223/.317/.411 slash line. All a bit down on his 2021 and 2022 seasons, but not to the point he can be considered a letdown.

He also missed the second half of May with a hamstring strain. It's common for players who return from a serious injury to miss some time with minor issues as Hoskins did. The problem has been that Hoskins has not been productive since his return. Albeit in small samples, we can see how June has been Hoskins's worst month of the season so far.

Hoskins isn't someone who will provide a good batting average but will make up for it with good power as evidenced by his career .242/.353/.492 slash line coming into the season.  That's been the case this season with a 13.4% Barrel% (88th percentile), 10.5% BB% (75th percentile), and .226 xBA (18th percentile). All-in-all, I wouldn't drop Hoskins based on his June and he should remain a decent source of power. In shallower leagues, there may be other options that would help you in more specific areas.

Josh Lowe - OF, Tampa Bay Rays - 66% rostered

After announcing himself as a legitimate fantasy star in 2023, Lowe has been nothing like expected in 2024. An oblique strain meant Lowe started the season on the IL. After returning on May 6, he was back on the IL less than three weeks later with the same injury. He's now been healthy for the last three weeks so it's still a bit early to determine what we should expect from Lowe from the remainder of this year.

Any fantasy value Lowe can provide will come down to whether or not he stays healthy. Three homers this week (including two on Friday) will surely help settle some fantasy managers' minds up about holding him or not. His .220/.287/.451 slash line isn't much to get excited about but the past week should help with that.

In cases such as Lowe (and with some players already included this week), it's worth giving them extra time following injuries to show their true selves. A player returning from injury doesn't necessarily mean they are 100% healthy. Even if they are, getting their timing and rhythm back may take longer. Lowe has shown signs of life this week, in a big way. So it's worth holding him and we will see if Lowe can perform close to the way he did in 2023.

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