The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 13

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

We head into week 13. It might be unlucky for some, but we'll do everything we can to make sure it's not unlucky for us. One way to ensure that is we don't drop the wrong player when waivers run tonight or end up holding on to someone who is poised to keep causing your fantasy teams harm in the Summer months.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the season progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Keibert Ruiz – C, Washington Nationals – 65% rostered

The Nationals young catcher has had a solid, if not spectacular season so far. He's hitting .257/.317/.360 with three homers, 19 RBI, 20 runs and four stolen bases (60 games). The steals have been a nice surprise but it's safe to say, fantasy owners expected a bit more power when drafting him.

Ruiz currently ranks as the 17th catcher on Yahoo!. To emphasize how volatile the position is in fantasy and how little difference there is outside the top tier, six of the catchers who rank above Ruiz are rostered in less than 50% of leagues and the eight immediately after Ruiz (making up the top-25) are all under 50% rostered.

Ruiz's fantasy value isn't helped by playing on a below-average offense, with the Nationals ranking 22nd in runs scored (321). He's hit fifth or sixth in the lineup for the majority of the season so would probably only truly find more value if he found himself moved up the order.

There are reasons for hope that Ruiz can still be a top 10 catcher this season. His 9.8% K% is in the 98th percentile and .307 xBA is in the 94th percentile.  So with a bit more luck, Ruiz could be hitting .280 and be nearer the top 10 at the position.

But while Ruiz doesn't strike out much, he doesn't hit the ball hard very often either. His 3.5% Barrel% ranks in the 12th percentile, 33.3% HardHit% is in the 16th percentile and 87.7 MPH average exit velocity is in the 23rd percentile.

Verdict - In two catcher or deeper leagues, Ruiz is still worth rostering. And while the four steals are nice, it's the only category in which Ruiz standouts out amongst his peers. Of course, there's a lot to be said for plugging in a catcher in your lineup and just ignoring it, knowing they won't hurt your numbers in any way. But if you're chasing a specific category, there may be better options available.

Tylor Megill – SP, New York Mets – 36% rostered

Megill found himself replacing Jacob deGrom in the Mets rotation to start the year and was filling in admirably. Through six starts, Megill had a 4-1 W-L record, 2.43 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 36 Ks (33.1 IP). His seventh start lasted just 1.1 innings and saw him give up eight earned runs.

Megill found himself on the IL following that outing, with right biceps inflammation. He returned four weeks later but this time, only lasted two starts before returning to the IL with a right shoulder strain. Hopes of a quick return were dashed when the Mets transferred Megill to the 60-day IL on Monday.

That means the earliest we would be seeing Megill is mid-August, assuming he's able to rehab and experience no setbacks. Realistically, a September return appears most likely and that could leave just five or six starts for Megill this season.

But then you have to factor in if he'd even return to a starter role. By then, the Mets will be hoping to have a healthy rotation for their postseason push with deGrom, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco being their likely five starters.

Let's also not forget about David Peterson and Trevor Williams who have pitched well in the rotation. That's a lot of mouths to feed and makes things far too murky right now as to what we could expect in 6-8 weeks' time.

If nothing else, Megill gave fantasy managers a few weeks of excellence and helped introduce us to his mother on Twitter (who is responsible for one of the better Twitter moments of the last 12 months as well as being a fun follow).

Verdict - As with any injured player, if you have an empty IL spot you can put Megill on and forget about, then do so. But if you need the roster spot for some help or the IL spot for someone more likely to contribute this season, I'm fine dropping Megill.

Anthony DeSclafani – SP, San Francisco Giants – 33% rostered

It's becoming a season to forget for the DeSclafani. After a stellar first season with the Giants, in which he had a 13-7 W-L record, 3.17 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 152 Ks (167.2 IP), he was rewarded with a 3-year $36M contract. But he will need to do something special in the second half to begin providing value on it.

After making three starts in April, DeSclafani hit the IL with right ankle inflammation. He returned two months later on June 21st, but lasted just two starts before going back on the IL Friday, again with right ankle inflammation.

Through his five starts, DeSclafani has an 0-2 W-L record, 9.95 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and 17 Ks (19.0 IP). So the results haven't been there and the fact he's back on the IL with the same issue that saw him miss two months already this season makes me believe this could be an ongoing issue or a long-term absence.

I don't believe the numbers are a fair reflection on DeSclafani and believe if healthy, he can be a solid fantasy starter. But Giants manager Gabe Kapler's "I think there’s real concern there” comment when asked about DeSclafani's ankle issue has me out on him completely this year.

Verdict - Even without Kapler's comment, I'd be fine dropping DeSclafani. But the remarks from the Giants and lack of clarity on the specific issue and any timetable for a return makes me feel comfortable dropping DeSclafani in any league size.

Hold For Now

Daulton Varsho – C/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks – 94% rostered

The rookie catcher, who plays the outfield, was a consensus top-five catcher in drafts this season (ADP ~89). The hype came after Varsho hit .246/.319/.437 with 11 homers, 38 RBI, 41 runs and six steals in 95 games last year. A catcher who can contribute above-average numbers in all the counting stats is like fantasy gold dust.

And Varsho hasn't been a letdown so far this year, hitting .235/.296/.415 with 11 homers, 35 RBI, 35 runs and four stolen bases (71 games). That's left him as the fifth-best catcher in fantasy according to Yahoo! ranks.

But if we look at his recent numbers, there's concern among fantasy managers that Varsho is grinding to a halt. Over the last 30 days, he ranks as the 18th catcher on Yahoo!, after hitting .176/.202/.286 with two homers, 10 RBI, 7 runs and one stolen base in June (22 games).

Those struggles have seen Varsho slide down the lineup. After spending the majority of his time as the Diamondbacks' leadoff hitter, Varsho has been hitting sixth or seventh this past week, which will have a significant detrimental impact on his fantasy value moving forward.

This weekend's series at Coors field has helped Varsho's numbers, going 2-for-5 with a homer (pinch-hit last night), three RBI and a run scored. Hopefully, that continues today and Varsho can forget all about June and push himself into the top-3 catcher position by season's end.

His Statcast profile tells its own story. Decent speed, and decent power when he makes solid contact. But below-average plate discipline limits the rate at which he makes hard contact. Varsho is a better defensive outfielder than catcher.

But the fact he can fill in at catcher when Carson Kelly sits will allow Varsho to play more often than almost any other catcher in fantasy. That volume will help his value, even if he hits in the bottom half of the lineup moving forward.

I'm not ready to drop Varsho yet, but if his struggles continue throughout July, I'd be open to exploring what other father options there are on waivers (in one catcher leagues only). As we noted when covering Ruiz, there are options that can help you in any one catcher league.

Carlos Carrasco – SP, New York Mets – 66% rostered

After a number of health issues in recent times, Carrasco began the season looking back near his best. After his first 11 starts of the year, Carrasco had a 7-1 W-L record, 3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 61 Ks (64.0 IP). His last four outings are what fantasy managers are concerned about.

Carrasco has allowed 19 earned runs over his last four starts (17.2 IP), including seven homers after allowing just three home runs in his first 11 starts. That's left Carrasco with an 8-4 W-L record, 4.85 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 81 Ks (81.2 IP).

Carrasco has already thrown more innings than he has in any season since 2018 so he might be forgiven for hitting a bit of a wall physically. And with deGrom and Scherzer missing so much time this year, he may be feeling the pressures trying to carry the pitching more than he would if the two aces were healthy.

There are some positives still with Carrasco. His underlying numbers suggest his recent outings have been down to a bit of bad luck, with a .400 BABIP and 4.15 xFIP in his last four starts. Other than the start at Houston, his fastball velocity hasn't dropped and while the home runs have been a concern, it's not like he's given them up to nobodies.

Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez (twice) and Kyle Tucker hit six of the seven homers in Carrasco's last four starts. That's a pretty impressive list, albeit one Carrasco probably won't enjoy seeing.

Carrasco has probably slipped down to someone who is no longer a "must-start" option in fantasy. And I'd be sitting him against the better offenses. But I'm not going to be dropping him unless these recent struggles become the norm over his next few starts.

Josh Donaldson – 3B, New York Yankees – 50% rostered

In 60 games, Donaldson is hitting .226/.319/.382 with six homers, 23 RBI, 23 runs and one stolen base. That's left him ranked as the 43rd third baseman on Yahoo!. And if that wasn't disappointing enough given the situation he's found himself in this year, just consider this:

The Yankees are first in runs scored (403). Of his 251 plate appearances, 236 of them have come hitting between the first and fifth spots in the lineup. Yet 38 third basemen have scored more runs than Donaldson and 36 have driven in more runs.

To consider a former MVP who is hitting in the heart of the lineup for the highest run-scoring offense as droppable might seem ridiculous. But it's mainly name value that's keeping him relevant. Donaldson's excellent 11.2% BB% gives him more use in leagues counting OBP or walks.

Donaldson has been very good defensively so even with the depth the Yankees possess, playing time isn't a big concern. And it might not actually help him hitting behind Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo, given how often they've cleared the fences this year.

Over 60% (152) of his plate appearances have come with the bases empty. Last night was another example of that, with Rizzo and Stanton hitting back-to-back home runs with two outs before Donaldson came to the plate. His only hit (a double) came with two runners on base, the only time he had anyone on base in his four plate appearances.

The reality is Donaldson hasn't provided fantasy value, especially given the situation he's found himself in. His expected numbers are slightly better than his actual numbers, but his 9.9% Barrel% is a career-low since its inception in 2015 (other than the 2020 shortened season).

Donaldson is 36 years old and this looks like signs of slowing down with age. Despite his BB% ranking in the 79th percentile, it's still the lowest Donaldson has had since 2015. His 25.9% K% is the highest since his 14-game debut in 2010. If you believe Donaldson can turn back the clock, by all means, hold him.

But if you don't think he can defy Father Time or he can get sprinkled with some magical pixie dust that lets him revert back to an older version of himself, there's not much reason to keep Donaldson on your rosters in anything but deeper leagues.

On the Hot Seat

Jameson Taillon – SP, New York Yankees – 85% rostered

As well as having a league-leading offense, the Yankees can boast about a starting rotation with the second-lowest ERA (3.05) in MLB. Taillon has been a big part of that with a 9-1 W-L record, 3.32 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 69 Ks (84.0 IP).

It may seem like a strange decision to place Taillon on the Hot Seat. But if we look at his most recent performances, it'll make more sense. Over his last five starts (25.1 IP), Taillon has a 3-0 W-L record despite a 5.68 ERA and 1.74 WHIP.

I'm not suggesting Taillon is droppable based on his last five starts and ignoring what he did in the first two months of the season (10 starts, 58.2 IP, 2.30 ERA and 0.90 WHIP). But we do have to consider whether these last few starts are a more accurate reflection of Taillon than his first ten starts or not.

Below is a table showing Taillon's numbers from his first ten starts, his last five starts and season totals. It's important to remember that even a ten-game sample is small so five games is very small and the numbers need to be taken in context.

Looking at those numbers, there shouldn't be any noticeable difference between Taillon's ERA between his first ten starts and last five starts. Comparing them, it seems he's just been a recent victim of small sample 'noise' with some bad BABIP luck.

If we look at Taillon's Statcast profile for the season, we can also use it to fill in a better picture of where he is right now and what we can expect moving forward.

While most Statcast profiles don't paint a full picture, Taillon's pretty much sums him up. Excellent control, lacks a true "punch-out" pitch but limits hard contact with a good arsenal. Speaking of his arsenal, Taillon's pitch usage this year is noticeably different than last year.

In 2021, Taillon threw his fastball 49.5% of the time. This year, just 32.1% of the time. Instead, he's increased his cutter (up 10.2%) and sinker (up 7.0%). Although with a .373 xwOBA, the sinker has been Taillon's least effective pitch. In fact, of the six pitches Taillon uses, only his curveball can be considered good.

So what does the remainder of the season hold for Taillon? Well, projection systems have him putting up a 4.00 - 4.30 ERA which seems about fair, although I think it'll be nearer 4.00 than 4.30. They also have him picking up five wins in 14 starts, which seem low but they don't believe the level of run support Taillon has had so far will maintain

I don't see why it wouldn't so I'm not writing off Taillon finishing the season with 20+ wins providing he remains even a league-average starting pitcher. And if he can continue to put up an elite walk rate and limit hard contact, I don't see any reason Taillon doesn't finish the season as a top-40 starting pitcher in fantasy.

Of course, if his recent outings are actually the beginning of the wheels falling off, then we will need to rethink Taillon as a viable starter. But for now, I'm expecting Taillon to continue tallying wins and being a help to your ratios with just a lack of strikeouts being detrimental to his fantasy value.

Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Juan Soto – OF, Washington Nationals – 99% rostered

I'm loathed to include a consensus top-3 pick in drafts this offseason. But I've been asked about whether he's droppable each of the last two weeks. So here we are, not even halfway through the season, debating whether you should drop someone who didn't fall outside the top 10 in 1,306 NFBC drafts.

Actually, this isn't a debate. It's a statement:

DO NOT DROP JUAN SOTO.

So far this year, Soto is hitting .226/.378/.449 with 15 homers, 33 RBI, 46 runs and five stolen bases (78 games). I'm not going to sit here and tell you he's offered value on his ADP and he has been a bust in that regard. But he's still ranked as the 33rd overall outfielder this season according to Yahoo!.

Soto's 19.6% BB% is the best in the league and his 15.2% K% is in the 85th percentile. How many players can match Soto's home run, RBI, runs and steals totals? Eight (two of whom are on the IL). The only thing holding Soto back has been his batting average, but given he has a .227 BABIP this year, I'd say he's been unlucky in that regard.

Just look at his .274 xBA. Or his .412 xwOBA which ranks in the 95th percentile (.361 wOBA). He isn't making as hard contact as in previous years (43.6% HardHit% in 2022 compared to a 52.7% HardHit% in 2021). But his 12.3% Barrel% still ranks in the 83rd percentile and he's showing his usual elite plate discipline.

It's easy to forget Soto is only 23 years old and yet, he's already hit 100 home runs (something he did against the Braves back in April). Few hitters can say they hit 100 homers before turning 24 and Soto's 100th went a long way.

In leagues that use OBP or value walks, you'll likely find Soto is in fact a top-20 outfielder. Again, not exactly where he was drafted but still not someone I'm considering dropping. Even if you play in a very shallow league, how many other hitters carry the upside that Soto does?

Nick Castellanos – OF, Philadelphia Phillies – 97% rostered

Not quite in the league of "do not drop" that Soto is, Castellanos is still not someone I'm considering sending to the waivers. Castellanos had an ADP of ~58 (18th outfielder) and is currently ranked as the 47th outfielder on Yahoo!.

Again, Castellanos hasn't lived up to his ADP but he's still been a viable player in fantasy. Through 76 games, Castellanos has eight homers, 41 RBI, 31 runs and four stolen bases with a .248/.299/.383 slash line. After a career-high 34 homers last year, hitting 25 this year might be a struggle.

But only 14 outfielders have more RBI than Castellanos so he's been a good contributor there and hasn't been a liability in any other category. He's already equaled his career-high in stolen bases, matching the four steals he had in 2017.

Thursday's home run was his only one in June, ending what was his worst month of the season so far. But he's still hitting third or fourth in a Phillies lineup that's started to come good and while I'm not rushing out to trade for Castellanos, I'm not thinking of dropping him either.

Jonathan India – 2B, Cincinnati Reds – 76% rostered

While we're on the subject of letdowns, the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year has certainly fallen short of his ADP (~90). India missed around six weeks with a hamstring injury so has only played 26 games, in which he's hit .217/.265/.302 with two homers, nine RBI, eight runs and one stolen base.

The good news for India's fantasy managers is that he's continuing to be the Reds leadoff hitter and his two homers and one stolen base have all come since June 21st (11 games). His sole successful stolen base has come from three attempts (after having an 80% success rate last year) and given the nature of his injuries, I'm not sure he will attempt too many more.

It doesn't matter how bad the team is, a leadoff hitter is always worth considering in any league. India scored 82 runs in 103 games as the Reds leadoff hitter last year and while their offense isn't as good this year, I still expect him to be one of the top run-scorers at second base for the remainder of this season.

If you look at projections systems, India is set to be a top 10 second baseman between now and the season's end. And it's hard for me to question that. If you've persevered with him this long and held on through the injury, I'd be giving India at least a couple more weeks before I'm considering dropping him.

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