The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 12

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

We're coming up to the midway point of the season with most teams having 70+ games in the book. Slow starts are turning into season-long slumps, hot Aprils are carrying on and becoming career seasons. And fantasy managers are at a point in the year where they need to make bold moves to catch up or avoid mistakes to maintain their leads.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the season progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Salvador Perez - C, Kansas City Royals - 96% rostered

A late addition to this week's Cut List, after news broke on Friday that Perez will undergo surgery on his injured thumb. The Royals initially said he is "expected back this season." Later, it emerged he is expected to miss eight weeks, meaning a late-August return is a best-case scenario.

Perez was hitting .211/.254/.426 with 11 homers, 34 RBI, 25 runs, and no steals (57 games) prior to the injury so he wasn't living up to his lofty ADP of ~31 this offseason. And he certainly wasn't going to match last year's number (48 homers, 121 RBI, 88 runs, and one stolen base).

Verdict: If you have a spare IL spot you can use for Perez, by all means, keep him. If Perez does only miss eight weeks, you're going to get around five weeks of him on your teams. But given the Royals aren't getting near the playoffs this year, they won't rush Perez back. Don't feel like you need to burn a roster spot for a possible return.

Manuel Margot – OF, Tampa Bay Rays – 29% rostered

Margot suffered a knee injury after colliding with the right-field wall earlier this week. While information has been a bit sketchy, it seems like Margot has escaped an ACL injury, instead suffering from a patellar tendon injury that might not need surgery.

Regardless of that, Margot was placed on the 60-day IL so he won't be back until late August. And any requirement for surgery will likely end his season early. Margot was hitting .302/.365/.423 with three homers, 27 RBI, 21 runs, and five stolen bases prior to his injury.

Verdict: While Margot was having a solid season, he was still only the 54th ranked outfielder on Yahoo! and given his .361 BABIP, his average was bound to regress. If Margot returns for the final month of the season, he's still only a borderline outfielder in 12-team leagues so is droppable in all formats.

Spencer Torkelson – 1B/3B, Detroit Tigers – 26% rostered

The Tigers' first base rookie has had a rough season so far, hitting .192/.281/.291 with four homers, 16 RBI, 17 runs, and no stolen bases (64 games). He has a 25.1% K% while his 68 wRC+ and .261 wOBA both rank last of all 30 qualified first basemen.

Torkelson does have a solid 10.4% BB% and his expected stats are better than his actual numbers. But as we can see below, they still rank poorly. Other than possessing a good eye at the plate, it's hard to find positives for Torkelson this year.

Torkelson was drafted number one overall in 2020 and shot up through the Tigers organization last year, starting at High-A and finishing at Triple-A. But it's easy to forget he only had 121 Minor League games in his career before debuting for the Tigers this year, so is still early in his development.

Verdict: In redraft leagues, Torkelson is droppable. I do believe in his potential so wouldn't be surprised if he improves as the season progresses, but I doubt he'll be a top-20 first baseman from now until the end of the season. I'm still holding him in dynasty leagues though as I'm not willing to dump a top prospect after ~60 MLB games.

Adam Frazier – 2B/OF, Seattle Mariners – 22% rostered

Frazier was only a deeper league fantasy option, even with a weak second base position for fantasy. He was generally drafted after pick 300, despite hitting .305/.368/.411 last year. His five homers, 43 RBI, 83 runs, and 10 steals (155 games) between the Pirates and Padres left him as a batting average option whose value depends on where they hit in the lineup.

This year, Frazier is hitting just .219/.291/.294 with two homers, 21 RBI, 28 runs, and two steals (72 games). Despite a lack of depth at the second base position in fantasy, he's still only ranked 55th at the position on Yahoo!.

Among the 155 qualified hitters, Frazier's 75 wRC+ ranks 145th, .265 wOBA ranks 148th, and .075 ISO ranks 148th. Granted, his .268 xBA is in the 58th percentile but given he had a .339 BABIP in 2021 and a .244 BABIP this year, his fantasy value basically relies on his batting average and if he gets good BABIP luck.

Verdict: A borderline second baseman in deeper leagues coming into the season, Frazier hasn't done anything to warrant being on fantasy rosters this year. He's hitting just .118/.207/.132 in June and found himself in the bottom half of the Mariners lineup over the last week. He's droppable everywhere.

Hold For Now

Alex Bregman – 3B, Houston Astros – 96% rostered

Bregman is probably the most commented on and requested player I get asked about. And my message has pretty much stayed the same the whole time: it's highly unlikely he repeats 2019 (or even 2018). He's underperformed on his ADP (~89). But he's still rosterable in fantasy.

Through 67 games, Bregman is hitting .232/.354/.407 with nine homers, 35 RBI, 38 runs, and no stolen bases. That leaves him ranked as the 16th third baseman on Yahoo! and 160th hitter overall. If you consider in Yahoo! leagues, you have 14 hitters starting (plus bench), so he's already justified as being rostered in 10-team leagues.

Of the 15 third basemen ranked ahead of him this year, nine are eligible at outfield or a middle infield position and three of them are currently carrying an injury (Manny Machado, Ty France, and Ke'Bryan Hayes). The below table shows where he ranks for each of the five main fantasy hitting categories.

* The batting average is for players with at least 200 at-bats.

What this tells us is other than steals, Bregman is contributing to your fantasy teams. There's still the potential for more given what he's done in the past (as unlikely as it seems), but if you had Bregman and say, Jon Berti, then you've got good numbers across the five categories between the two.

Bregman isn't going to provide value on his ADP and you shouldn't expect pre-2020 numbers from him. But he's still contributing enough to warrant being rostered in fantasy.

Tarik Skubal – SP, Detroit Tigers – 88% rostered

Following his 10th start of the year on June 1st, Skubal had a 4-2 W-L record, 2.15 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 61 Ks (58.2 IP). It would have been inconceivable to consider dropping Skubal back then. But, a 9.88 ERA in his last three starts has made people question if his start to the year was a fluke.

Skubal is currently sitting on a fantasy line of a 5-5 W-L record, 3.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 84 Ks (79.1 IP). That leaves him ranked as the 54th starting pitcher on Yahoo!. Given his ADP of ~186, he's currently performing about where he was drafted at.

The question is whether or not the real Skubal has shown up over the last three weeks or if the April and May version is more of what to expect. The truth lies somewhere in between. The below table shows a breakdown of Skubal's first 10 starts and his last four outings.

We can see that Skubal's expected numbers suggest he was a bit lucky in the early goings but still excellent and an ERA of ~3.00 would still have left him as a top-40 SP. While his last four starts appear to be unlucky, given the BABIP and expected stats. An ERA of ~3.70 would seem fairer from his last four outings.

Four starts totaling 20.2 IP is a small sample size so it's difficult to take away too much and it may turn out that actually, this is the beginning of natural regression. But I'm optimistic that this recent run is just an overcorrection and Skubal is still someone I'm rostering in any league.

Nolan Gorman – 2B/3B, St. Louis Cardinals – 56% rostered

Since his call-up in May, Gorman has hit .255/.317/.455 with six homers, 17 RBI, 18 runs, and no steals (33 games). He has a 32.5% K% and 42.6% HardHit%. He's basically been exactly as advertised; lots of strikeouts with plenty of power.

If you believe Gorman would be something different from what he's done so far, just look at his Triple-A numbers this year, prior to his call-up. Gorman hit 15 homers in 34 games, with a .308/.367/.677 slash line and 34.0% K%. But there is a reason he's not more heavily rostered.

In his 33 games, Gorman has had 120 plate appearances. Only nine of those have come against left-hand pitching (LHP). Being in a platoon (even on the strong side of one) will cap a player's fantasy value as they're missing out on ~25-30% of possible plate appearances.

And while strikeouts don't matter in most fantasy leagues, they do in real-life and high strikeout hitters will find themselves pinch-hit for or sat more often than some others on the roster.

Despite not debuting until May 20th, Gorman is still ranked as the 50th second baseman on Yahoo! and ranks 15th at the position over the last 30 days. He's not a must-roster player in shallow leagues but is certainly worth having in 12+ team leagues and should continue to put up solid numbers as long as the strikeouts don't get out of hand.

On the Hot Seat

Lucas Giolito – SP, Chicago White Sox – 96% rostered

As of Saturday afternoon, Giolito is ranked as the 221st starting pitcher on Yahoo! so far this year. Given there are 30 MLB teams, most of whom will have five starting pitchers, the fact Giolito ranks outside the top-150 is bad enough. Can you even name 220 other active starting pitchers?

The reason for such a lowly ranking is after 12 starts, Giolito has a 4-4 W-L record, 5.40 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and 76 Ks (63.1 IP). A reminder of what he did last year is seen below in his Statcast profile, when he put up an 11-9 W-L record, 3.53 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 201 Ks (178.2 IP).

The first thing to address is Giolito's underlying numbers. He currently has a 5.27 xERA, 3.72 xFIP, and 3.68 SIERA. You'll have noticed the xERA being significantly higher than his xFIP and SIERA. I won't go into the ins and outs of what goes into these metrics but things like quality of contact and predictive outcomes vary across them.

One significant factor is Giolito's home run issue. He currently has a 20.3% HR/FB. Among the 97 pitchers with 60+ innings, that is the second-highest rate. Coupled with his .360 BABIP, I expect Giolito's ERA to come down over the remainder of the season.

But this isn't a simple case of Giolito being unlucky and things will correct themselves. There is still one concern I have about Giolito's pitch mix, most notably his fastball being much less ineffective than in previous seasons.

Giolito's average fastball velocity is slightly down, but not enough to make all the difference between last year and this. But it also has a lot less spin and movement, while he's also using it more. So it's less effective but being thrown more. The below table is a comparison of some of the numbers on Giolito's fastball from 2021 and 2022.

In a nutshell, Giolito's fastball has been easier to hit this year and is being hit harder. His overall expected numbers are better than his actual numbers, but as we can see from this year's Statcast profile, they still rank poorly.

Giolito has salvaged some value in fantasy with good strikeout numbers and managing to pick up a win in a third of his starts (along with four quality starts). But allowing 15 earned runs in his last two starts (10.0 IP) with a 6.07 xFIP does make me concerned and I'm not looking to start him on my team next time out.

But I'm also not looking to drop Giolito right now. After putting up a 3.47 ERA in 427.2 IP between 2019 - 2021, Giolito deserves a longer leash. And before his last three starts, he had a 3.54 ERA (48.1 IP) so it's not like he's been unstartable all season.

As I mentioned in the intro, I'm not one to make knee-jerk reactions so won't be dropping Giolito based on two or three bad outings. And in truth, he probably should've been pulled before he was in both games to limit the damage. So for now, I'm holding on to Giolito but probably not starting him until he earns my trust again.

Reddit Requests

Ian Anderson – SP, Atlanta Braves – 74% rostered

I will hold my hands up and admit right now that I expected Anderson to provide better value on his ADP than teammate Max Fried. After 14 starts, Anderson has a 6-4 W-L record, 4.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 65 Ks (74.1 IP). I'll give you a minute to look up Fried's numbers so you can tell me how wrong I am.

My main concern with Anderson was his walks. Coming into this season, he had a 10.0% BB% in 160.2 IP since 2020. This year, Anderson has an 11.9% BB% which ranks in the 18th percentile. And he doesn't strike out enough hitters to compensate, with a 20.2% K% (34th percentile). That's also down from his 24.5% K% prior to this year.

Anderson's inconsistency from one start to the next will be what's really frustrating fantasy managers. He's yet to complete seven innings in an outing but has managed at least four every time since his first start of the season (2.2 IP). That sounds pretty consistent.

But then factor in this. From his 14 starts, six of them have had an ERA of 3.00 or less. Six of them have had an ERA of 6.00 or more. Anderson's had four starts in which he's allowed one or fewer runs and three of them were followed up by a start in which he had an ERA of 5.00+.

Anderson does have slightly more promising underlying numbers, with a 3.78 xERA, 4.27 xFIP, and 4.56 SIERA. And only 16 starting pitchers have topped his six wins. But as long as he's walking more than 10% of the batters he faces and putting up below-average strikeout numbers, Anderson won't provide enough fantasy value to warrant rostering in shallower leagues.

Blake Snell – SP, San Diego Padres – 73% rostered

The former AL Cy Young winner has had a topsy-turvy season so far. Snell hit the IL with an abductor strain, something he felt in his warmup prior to making his first start of the season on April 10th. He eventually made his season debut on May 18th.

Through seven starts (35.1 IP), Snell has an 0-5 W-L record, 5.60 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 38 Ks. He has always put up good strikeout numbers and despite his 24.4% K% this year being the lowest he's had since 2017, it's still in the 71st percentile.

But something else Snell has been known for is the high number of walks and his 12.2% BB% ranks in the eighth percentile. He's walked a total of 19 batters so far this year and at least two in all seven starts.

Snell does have a 3.81 xERA, 4.33 xFIP, and 4.31 SIERA so he can feel a little unlucky about having an ERA over 4.50, let alone 5.60. But when you walk as many batters as Snell does, you always run the risk of having an elevated ERA. At least his slider has remained elite with a .127 xBA against it.

Snell has only made seven starts, two of which were quality starts. A couple of good outings should see his ERA drop to near 4.50, six shutout innings would drop it to 4.79. He has only allowed three home runs this year and one of his bad starts (four earned runs in 4.2 IP) came at Coors Field.

So there are enough reasons to believe Snell will improve. For now, I'm holding him in all but the shallowest leagues but he's not someone I'm expecting to be any more than an SP5/6. Snell isn't a must-start pitcher unless I'm in need of strikeouts and can risk the ERA and WHIP downside he brings.

MacKenzie Gore – SP, San Diego Padres – 71% rostered

Gore was in the process of showing everyone why he was such a highly regarded prospect, with a 1.50 ERA through 48.0 IP (eight starts and one relief appearance). Then came two blowups, allowing 14 earned runs in 6.1 IP. Friday, Gore got back to his early-season self, throwing five shutout innings.

That leaves Gore with a 4-3 W-L record, 3.34 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 65 Ks (59.1 IP). And while I believe in his talent and long-term (he could be a top-40 SP in fantasy for many years), there are still some red flags causing me concern this year.

Firstly, it's the workload. In 2019, Gore totaled 101.0 IP, by far the most he's thrown in a year as a professional. He had 50.1 IP last year and 2020 was the lost MiLB season, so the fact he's already tallied 64.1 IP makes me believe he won't see the whole season through as a starter. Or will at least have his starts limited to around three innings.

Secondly, is Gore's recent control issues. It's something that became a concern last year, albeit in only 50 innings. And in his first six appearances, Gore had a respectable 7.6% BB%. But in his last six starts, Gore has walked 19 batters in just 30.1 IP.

Thirdly, Gore's underlying numbers aren't particularly promising. Below is his Statcast profile, which needs context and isn't the be-all-and-end-all, but he has a 4.07 xERA, 3.86 xFIP, and 3.99 SIERA. Given his recent control issues, I'm expecting his ERA to regress without some improvements to his BB%.

I'm still a believer in Gore for the long-term and he's pitched well enough so far to not be widely dropped. His two bad starts both came against the Rockies (one in Coors Field) so I don't see those being the norm moving forward.

But if his workload is carefully managed and the walks stay at their recent rate, Gore might not hold much more fantasy value this year. His stock is high, especially after Friday's outing, so he's someone I'd be looking at trading rather than dropping. Otherwise, I'm holding as long as he's starting for the Padres but not necessarily starting him every week depending on his matchup.

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