The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 11

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 11 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- June 3 through June 9. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the season rolls on, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Jordan Montgomery - SP, Arizona Diamondbacks - 77% rostered

Montgomery was poised to be droppable this week before Friday's outing. He was then hit hard by the Mets and that removed any lingering doubts about whether or not Montgomery can be dropped. He's now sporting a 3-3 W-L record, 5.48 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 28 Ks. The decision to state Montgomery as droppable isn't just based on Friday. He's been pretty bad all season.

We should start by saying Montgomery's ERA is elevated. But, his 4.37 xFIP and 4.74 SIERA are still not impressive. Nor is his .294 xBA (expected batting average), which is only slightly better than the .302 batting average against him. Montgomery does have a .340 BABIP. But that brings us to the other issue with him; the lack of strikeouts.

Montgomery has a career-low 14.4% K%, which ranks in the eighth percentile. He did come into the season with a career 22.5% K%. Even if he matched that, it only ranks in the 50th percentile. With a high ERA, Montgomery would need to have a better-than-league-average strikeout rate to provide fantasy value.

After tonight's game #Dbacks Jordan Montgomery has a 5.48 ERA in 8 starts, 44.1 IP (27 ER)

MLB Avg is 3.93

In order to get to league avg ERA Montgomery would need to average 6 IP / 2 ER over his next 12 starts (72 IP, 24 ER) to get to 3.95 ERA

Montgomery is paid $25M this year

— Jack Sommers (@shoewizard59) June 1, 2024

Of course, Montgomery can point to extenuating circumstances for his struggles. He only signed for the Diamondbacks two days before Opening Day. After a promising first start on April 19, things have gone downhill. The unsettled offseason has likely played a part. Montgomery's sinker is averaging 91.6 mph (down 1.7 mph) and has a .376 xwOBA against it. As his most used pitch (33.0%), that's a big problem.

Verdict: It's difficult to see Montgomery returning to fantasy relevancy this year. Despite an impressive 3.20 ERA in 2023, he had a 4.01 xFIP and 4.23 SIERA. While we should see improvements from Montgomery, a 4.20 ERA and 20.0% K% are about what we can realistically expect. That isn't going to provide any fantasy value. Even in deep leagues, he's only a bench option you start when desperate or against the weakest offenses.

George Springer - OF, Toronto Blue Jays - 73% rostered

Despite his 20/20 season in 2023, there were justifiable concerns about Springer coming into 2024. He had a career-low .732 OPS last year and his 21 home runs were the fewest Springer had in a full season since 2016. Even with those concerns, 2024 has been pretty dreadful so far. After 51 games, he has four homers, 12 RBI, 24 runs, and seven stolen bases with a .204/.300/.304 slash line.

While consecutive 20+ stolen base seasons look possible, it's unlikely Springer will reach 20 homers. He's also got a 162-game pace of 38 RBI. It's difficult to see that miserable pace maintained throughout the entire season. Projections systems have Springer driving in ~45 runs over the remainder of the season, so he's set to provide a disappointing total.

The batting average should also improve. Springer has a .255 xBA. That's much more similar to the .262 batting average he had between 2021 and 2023. Springer has also been moved down the batting order. He scored 14 runs in 38 games as the Blue Jays leadoff hitter. In a strange quirk, since the move down the order, Springer has scored 10 runs in 11 games.

Verdict: Hitting fifth or sixth in the order should hurt Springer's runs total, although he's disproving that idea. But it should help his paltry RBI total. Springer is currently ranked 105th among outfielders on Yahoo! While I expect Springer's numbers to improve, it's tough to see him being a top-40 outfielder over the remainder of 2024. If there's someone of appeal on waivers, I'd have no issue cutting ties with the veteran in all but deep leagues.

Hold For Now

Jordan Romano - RP, Toronto Blue Jays - 90% rostered

My one loose rule with relievers is to not drop them as long as they have the closer role. Despite Romano's struggles, he doesn't appear to have lost the closer gig. He's sporting a 1-2 W-L record, 6.59 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 13 Ks, and eight saves (13.2 IP). Despite his unsightly ERA, Romano only has one blown save on his ledger. That's likely why he's still closing games in Toronto. That was until Friday of course. More on that later.

Just because I'm not dropping Romano yet, doesn't mean I'm not preparing to do so in the future. His 4.17 xFIP and 3.73 SIERA hint at some misfortune for Romano this year. But, very few closers maintain their jobs long-term with a ~4.00 ERA. Romano is also striking out batters at a career-low rate. His 21.0% K% is down 8.9 percentage points on his career mark.

The main issue seems to be Romano's slider. It's getting hit harder than ever and that's likely down to the fact it's getting less horizontal movement than ever. Romano's only other pitch is a four-seam fastball. And when half of your arsenal isn't working, you're in trouble. After having a .338 SLG against his slider last year, this year his slider has a .581 SLG against it. Romano's not been unlucky with it either as evidenced by the .582 xSLG.

On Friday, the Blue Jays needed 14 innings to beat the Pirates. Romano wasn't one of the five relievers used by Toronto. We later found out that Romano was unavailable due to elbow soreness. It's unclear whether or not he's been dealing with this issue for a while. That could help explain why he's struggled so far. He was then placed on the 15-day IL, which at least means fantasy managers can stash him on their IL for now.

Although I'd suggest holding on to Romano if you have a spare IL spot, there's enough concern to believe that he doesn't hold the closer role after he returns. We also don't know how long the Blue Jays expect him to be out for. Yimi Garcia and Chad Green could easily take on the closer role so adding either to replace Romano would be my preferred plan.

There doesn't seem to be any structural damage to Romano's elbow. Officially, he's on the IL with elbow inflammation. So assuming Romano does return this year, we can see how the bullpen works out before dropping him. If things change while he's out, like an expected extended stay on the IL, then that will alter our approach.

Dansby Swanson - SS, Chicago Cubs - 84% rostered

If we look at Swanson's numbers each year since 2021, it's fair to say that 2022 looks like an outlier. His .277 batting average was by far his best over a full season. His 18 stolen bases are as many as he had in 2021 and 2023 combined. And his 116 wRC+ was a career-high. Because of that, we need to look at 2021 and 2023 as a more realistic guide to what Swanson can produce.

Even when we do, 2024 looks like a disappointment. In 48 games, Swanson has five homers, 15 RBI, 25 runs, and four stolen bases, along with a .208/.283/.339 slash line. If we look at Swanson's batting average, it's well below expectation. He hit .248/.311/.449 in 2021 and .244/.328/.416 in 2023. So his .239 xBA and .424 xSLG are both more in line with what Swanson is capable of. It also highlights his misfortune so far.

Swanson got off to a so-so start, hitting .234/.303/.364 in the first month of the season. His April was better than what he produced in May when he hit .155/.234/.241. However, it was a month that was disrupted due to a knee sprain. Swanson returned from the IL in little under two weeks and had gone 2-for-22 in the seven May games before the IL stint. He's gone 8-for-39 since returning.

Swason's lack of home runs is also troubling, finally hitting his first homer since returning from the IL on June 1. But, there's also some positive news on that front. It's fair to say that Chicago can be pretty chilly in the early weeks of the season. Wrigley Field gets much more hitter-friendly in the summer months. Given Swanson only hit five of his 22 home runs last year before June, I'm optimistic he can still hit 20+ homers in 2024.

As a result, I'm giving Swanson the month of June before I pull the plug. Hopefully, yesterday can help alleviate any concerns about him still suffering from an injured knee. It might also ignite a similar spell to last year when Swanson hit .260/.327/.452 with eight homers across 38 games in June and July.

On the Hot Seat

Nolan Arenado - 3B, St. Louis Cardinals - 94% rostered

Paul Goldschmidt has already featured in The Cut List this season. So it's about time the Cardinals' other struggling infield veteran gets a look. While Goldschmidt's bat has woken up over the last three weeks, Arenado's has only just started to show signs of life. Arenado homered in consecutive games this week, either side of a couple of days off.

That's left Arenado with a .252/.304/.371 slash line, five homers, 26 RBI, 22 runs, and no stolen bases (54 games). Even after the two homers this week, it's only enough to rank him 25th among third basemen on Yahoo! A far cry from his ADP (~98) but it was considerably worse this time last week. Things have gotten better for Arenado in recent days. But if we zoom out, things have been getting worse in recent years.

After joining St. Louis in 2021, Arenado has been showing signs of decline in recent times. The below table shows his numbers since 2021. This year's numbers have been extrapolated over 150 games as that's what Arenado has averaged per season since becoming a Cardinal.

If that's how Arenado's 2024 ends up, it'll represent his worst full season since his 2013 rookie campaign. If you need a visual representation of Arenado's decline in recent years, below should help. We can see from his Statcast profile over the last three seasons that Arenado has seen a drop off in the quality of his contact. And as a result, in his expected and actual numbers.

This is the first year we have bat speed data but ranking in the 21st percentile isn't ideal. We don't know if Arenado's bat speed has slowed in recent seasons so we can't put too much emphasis on that. What we can see is how he's making softer contact and registering fewer barrels. Arenado has had a lower xSLG than his actual slugging percentage in recent seasons so we shouldn't expect his .371 SLG to drop further. But it's still disappointing.

Arenado ranks 104th out of the 155 qualified hitters in SLG and tied 107th in wOBA (.305). He ranks as the 140th hitter on Yahoo! All the numbers make Arenado rosterable, but barely. Two homers this week offer us hope that Arenado can be more than barely rosterable over the remainder of 2024. That remains to be seen and we likely need June to fully determine if this is the start of a renaissance or a false dawn.

For now, I'd hold on to Arenado. That's also in part due to how thin third base is in most leagues. It's highly unlikely that he comes close to providing value on his ADP. But he's still likely a better option than anyone available to you on waivers. He's set to be "fine" this year. Not ideal and if he's no longer "fine" in late June, then we need to reconsider our options.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Pablo Lopez - SP, Minnesota Twins - 97% rostered

Like Mongomery, López pitched on Friday and cemented the feelings I had about him before the start. López limited the Astros to one run over seven innings while striking out nine. That's left him with a 5-5 W-L record, 4.84 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 75 Ks (67.0 IP). A somewhat uninspiring fantasy line, but there's plenty to like if we dig a little deeper.

Firstly, López has a 3.08 xFIP and 3.01 SIERA. Among the 82 qualified starters, he has the 13th-best xFIP and 11th-best SIERA. Among the 112 pitchers to have faced at least 200 batters, López's 1.87 difference between his ERA and xERA (2.97) is the third largest. He's simply been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball. His misfortune is despite putting up a career-low 4.0% BB%, which ranks in the 93rd percentile.

Early season issues aren't a new thing for López. After 12 starts last year, he had a 4.54 ERA. López had a propensity for going on a good run before having a blow-up. He had a 2.27 ERA in starts 13 to 18, then gave up seven runs against the A's. López then had another outstanding run of six starts, with a total 1.22 ERA. He then allowed five runs against the Rangers. Blow-ups can be expected but Friday reminded us of his dominance when he's on form.

#Twins Pablo López had 11 out of his 12 four-seamer whiffs come in the upper third of the zone & above against the Astros. That ties a season-high of 12 four-seam whiffs & the 3rd time of 10+.

After changes in the breakers & changeup, it's cool to see his four-seam dominate. https://t.co/Lz06ff6Mc6 pic.twitter.com/2Boyt1ZIRf

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) June 1, 2024

Fantasy managers would have been concerned that two of his blow-ups came in back-to-back outings before Friday. He now ranks tied-12th in strikeouts. Assuming his ERA does start dropping, López should be a top-20 starting pitcher over the remainder of 2024. If he has back-to-back bad outings to begin June, then we will need to revisit things. For now, López is more of a "buy-low" candidate than a drop option.

Randy Arozarena - OF, Tampa Bay Rays - 95% rostered

Arozarena featured in the Week 6 edition of The Cut List. Back then, I mentioned how he was the most requested player in the early weeks. Two months into the season and that hasn't changed. Arozarena is still heavily requested so now seems as good a time as any to check back in with the struggling outfielder.

Five weeks ago, I compared some of Arozarena's numbers from the previous years. It makes sense to do so again. The below table shows the numbers we looked at in Week 6 and what they are now. This gives us a better idea of how Arozarena has performed over the last five weeks and where we are with him now.

As we can see, there's been very little change, but five weeks isn't much time to make significant changes to your numbers. Arozarena's average sprint speed has increased from 27.7 ft/sec to 28.2 ft/sec. His quality of contact numbers are almost identical. But his expected numbers have regressed. Arozarena had a .218 xBA and .369 xSLG five weeks ago. Now, he has a .195 xBA and .350 xSLG.

The one thing that has kept Arozarena relevant is the counting stats he has been accumulating. He's got a 162-game pace of 23 homers and 20 stolen bases. Almost identical to last season. Arozarena is also one of only 15 players with at least eight homers and seven stolen bases. He's not been helped by the Rays offense, which ranks tied-23rd in runs scored (230) leading to only 19 RBI and 25 runs. His struggles are part of those issues too.

Five weeks ago I said that I expected Arozarena's numbers to pick up. While I still believe the same, I say it with more trepidation. We will still likely see a 20/20 season but probably with a sub-.220 batting average. Unless you're in a great position for home runs and stolen bases, I'd still look to hold Arozarena. His name alone still has some trade value too so if you want to get rid of him, you should be able to get someone useful in return.

Colton Cowser - OF, Baltimore Orioles - 50% rostered

Cowser got off to a red-hot start to begin 2024. By the end of April, he had a .303/.372/.632 slash line with six homers (27 games). He's cooled off considerably since then but Cowser is still someone I'm holding on to. Fantasy managers have two main concerns with Cowser. One being his regression and the other being his playing time. With regard to the latter concern, there shouldn't be any concern.

Austin Hays return from the IL had many believing that Cowser would see more time on the bench. Especially against LHP. Last Sunday when the Orioles faced a lefty, it was Cedric Mullins who sat for Hays, although Cowser did slip down to ninth in the batting order. While Cowser is only hitting .225/.273/.400 against LHP, he's been one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. His six OAA (outs above average) is in the 98th percentile.

Colton Cowser clinches the @Orioles win with a HR robbery! pic.twitter.com/AVdqgOPqAM

— MLB (@MLB) May 25, 2024

Cowser's glove will keep him in the lineup more often than not. Given Mullins is only hitting .185/.230/.327 this year (and .133/.170/.178 against LHP), Cowser looks like having the advantage when it comes to starting against lefties. When it comes to his regression, Cowser was never going to maintain his torrid pace to start the season. But his May slash line of .188/.305/.275 is also not going to cut it.

Cowser's home run last Sunday was his first in over a month. He scored a run in five consecutive games before yesterday's 0-for-4 performance. Maybe the last week can ignite another surge from the rookie outfielder. We've also seen Cowser moved up to the cleanup spot twice this week. That highlights the confidence the Orioles have in their young outfielder.

I'm not predicting another month like April but Cowser should be able to be productive over the remainder of 2024, especially on such a potent offense. I'd be inclined to hold him for now. Assuming he's a regular fixture in the Orioles lineup, Cowser's offensive numbers will only improve on May's production.

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