The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 10

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

We're almost into June already and it's safe to say that there's been no shortage of players struggling and causing fantasy managers no end of worry. But we've seen many stars get their season going in May and patience has been rewarded for many. But now two months into the season, how much more patient can we be?

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year continues to progress, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Tyler Stephenson - C, Cincinnati Reds - 74% rostered

Stephenson hasn't really done too much wrong. After 50 games, he's hitting .256/.340/.344 with two homers, 21 RBI, 22 runs, and no steals. The power hasn't materialized but given he came into the season with 18 home runs in 190 MLB games (a 162-game pace of 15 homers), ~12 homers this year was a realistic expectation.

He's only on a 162-game pace of six homers. That has contributed to Stephenson ranking 14th among catchers (according to Yahoo!). After averaging as the ninth catcher taken in drafts, it's fair to say he's not quite provided value on his ADP.

Stephenson does rank tied-12th in RBI and eighth in runs at the catcher position so he has been contributing elsewhere. And among the 27 catchers with at least 100 at-bats, his batting average ranks 12th. Only four catcher-eligible players have more than two stolen bases so it's not a category catchers generally help in.

Really, it's only the power that's been lacking, with 32 catchers having hit more home runs than Stephenson. Given he's been far from a dud so far, why would I include him here as a drop candidate?

The reality is, nothing in his outlook is of an upward trend. First, a glance at his Statcast profile.

He can hit the ball hard(ish), he takes a good(ish) number of walks, and everything is just 'ish'. His .383 xSLG is better than his actual slugging percentage, but as we can see, it is still pretty poor. There's nothing to suggest Stephenson will break out of mediocrity and become a real fantasy asset.

My big concern about his outlook is a possible drop in playing time. Stephenson has only started 20 games at catcher and if you noticed above, there's a reason for that. Not only does he rank poorly in framing, but Stephenson also ranks below average in pitch blocking and is about average in caught stealing stats.

Luke Maile has made 15 starts at catcher while Curt Casali has started 17 games behind the plate (and both rank better defensively than Stephenson), so the role at least appears to be a pretty even job share right now. Stephenson has made 23 starts at the DH (and four at first base) compared to Maile's one.

Joey Votto is expected to go on a rehab assignment soon and providing he experiences no setbacks, should return to the Reds around mid-June. And top prospect Elly De La Cruz continues his push for a call-up to the majors, which could very well come in early June. All of that could result in a slight drop in at-bats for Stephenson.

Neither of those factors is massively damaging to Stephenson but when a player is "on the bubble" of being a drop candidate in fantasy, the downturn moving forward is going to be a bigger negative. But it does bring me to a more general point when it comes to the catcher position.

Outside of the seven catchers, none of them are 'must-roster' players. The position is volatile and lacks depth. The difference between the eighth and 12th-ranked catcher is generally negligible and those outside the top 12 will all have periods that would rank them in the top 10 at the position.

In reality, Stephenson's name could be swapped with a multitude of others at the position and this is nothing against Stephenson and more an outlook for the catcher position. If you can get help elsewhere, don't feel obligated to hold on to your catcher if he's not one of the top options.

Verdict: Stephenson isn't a 'must-drop' and in deep or two-catcher leagues, he's certainly someone who should be rostered. But he is an example that the majority of catchers are droppable and if you need some help elsewhere, don't be too concerned about dropping Stephenson. For example, there are currently eight catchers rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo! leagues with five or more homers. If you need power, grab one.

Matt Strahm - SP/RP, Philadelphia Phillies - 38% rostered

If Stephenson hadn't done too much wrong to warrant being dropped, Strahm certainly hasn't. He had success earlier in the season as a starter but has since reverted to a bullpen role. Even though he picked up a two-inning save earlier this month, he started Tuesday's game as an opener and doesn't seem to have any worthwhile fantasy role.

On the year, Strahm has a 4-3 W-L record, 3.22 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 51 Ks, and one save (36.1 IP). He's been plenty valuable enough but it's hard to see where his fantasy value will come from moving forward. It's not like he's been moved to the bullpen due to struggles as a starter as we can see from the below table.

Small sample, sure. And his numbers as a reliever are better, as you would expect. But any team would want a starting pitcher with a 3.90 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, and 35.1% K%. And it's not like the Phillies bullpen has been bad and needs the help. They rank tied second in blown saves (four) and 16th in ERA (4.05).

Given Strahm opened for Dylan Covey (and his career 6.45 ERA) on Tuesday, you could argue that Strahm belongs in the starting rotation as a traditional starter. But it's difficult to see that happening again following his switch back to a reliever as teams are loathe to stretch out pitchers too frequently.

Strahm's strikeouts are still valuable, and in deeper leagues where you shudder at the thought of rostering the starting pitchers available on waivers, rostering a reliever like Strahm makes sense. He could easily give you four innings of one-run baseball with six strikeouts in a week.

The lack of innings won't have as big an impact on your ratios, though. He's not going to get many wins or saves, especially if he's going to be an opener more frequently or used in a setup role like he was on Friday.

Verdict: Strahm is a much better real-life pitcher than a fantasy one. He has little fantasy value given his role (or lack of it). Unless you're in a deep league and would rather him than a back-end starter that is likely to do more harm to your team than good, Strahm can be dropped. He did pick up his first hold of the season on Friday and that might be a thing moving forward if you play in holds leagues.

Kolten Wong - 2B, Seattle Mariners - 18% rostered

I generally don't cover players rostered on so few teams but I was already committed. Then Wong saw an even bigger decline in the number of teams he was rostered on. And as of now, that's probably still too many.

Wong came into the season as a later-round power/speed combo following a career-high 15 homers last season (and 14 in 2021) along with 17 stolen bases. There was also a feeling he could lead off against right-handed pitching (RHP). He started the first four games as the number two hitter but unfortunately, second-best describes his season so far.

In 36 games, Wong has no homers, eight RBI, 11 runs, and no stolen bases while hitting .160/.250/.189. He moved down the batting order and mainly hits ninth when he plays, which is becoming rarer as Jose Caballero has begun to take starts away against righties.

Wong has dealt with some injury issues and after a solid seven-game stretch in which he hit, .417/.462/.500, manager Scott Servais mentioned Wong had made some mechanical adjustments which had helped him.

Scott Servais says that Kolten Wong has made some mechanical adjustments at the plate, including a toe tap, which has led to a lot of his recent success pic.twitter.com/IB2ELlNo3B

— Marine Layer Podcast (@MarineLayerPod) May 6, 2023

Since Servais said this, Wong has gone 2-for-31.

On the year, Wong ranks in the fifth percentile or worse in Hard-Hit%, Barrel%, Average Exit Velocity, xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA. And if there were any hopes that his defense would keep him in the lineup, he's been a below-average defensive second baseman.

Verdict: Just drop him. Unless you're in an AL West-only league and even then, it'd be a close call. I wouldn't be shocked if Wong does manage to get somewhere near a serviceable player again but there's just no reason to roster him currently.

Hold For Now

Tim Anderson - SS, Chicago White Sox - 88% rostered

For the fifth consecutive season, Anderson has spent time on the IL. Once again, it was a leg injury that saw Anderson miss time. The reason I mention that will become clearer in a bit. But on the year, Anderson is hitting .257/.296/.292 with no homers, nine RBI, 17 runs, and six stolen bases (35 games).

Anderson seems to always be a 20/20 threat but he's only ever achieved that feat once (2018) although he hit 17 homers with 18 stolen bases in 2021 (123 games). The missed time has certainly contributed to that but it looks like Anderson won't get close to a 20/20 season this year.

He does have a 162-game pace of 28 stolen bases, which would be a career-high. But the complete lack of power is a concern and Anderson is on course to not hit .300 for the first time since 2018. That has left fantasy managers wondering if he's still a viable shortstop option.

Through gritted teeth, I'm going to say yes, Anderson is still a viable fantasy option. He's definitely one we need to lower expectations of given how his numbers are trending, as we can see below.

There are three very telling things in these numbers. One is that Anderson is actually hitting the ball harder on average than he ever has. Two is that Anderson is slower than he ever has been. And three is that Anderson is hitting a historic number of ground balls.

Anderson's GB% is the highest among all hitters with at least 140 plate appearances and his sprint speed is now only in the 43rd percentile. So it's encouraging he's 6-for-7 in stolen base attempts at least and we have a good idea as to why Anderson has yet to homer despite having a hard-hit% that's in the 87th percentile.

The stolen bases might be in a rather rapid decline as five of his seven attempts came in Anderson's first 11 games of the season before his injury. Since returning, Anderson has only attempted two steals in 23 games and is 1-for-2, so are there lingering issues from his knee sprain?

That leads me back to Anderson's history of leg injuries. That will make the drop in sprint speed understandable but could also explain the inability to hit the ball in the air regularly. If they've taken a toll, there's a chance Anderson's swing has altered, leading to more groundballs. Any ongoing knee issue could be affecting his ability to drive the ball in the air.

Anderson could of course get healthier as the season progresses and the signs are at least pointing in that direction. Over his last 14 games, he's hitting .281/.305/.281 but he's still had a 60.5% GB%. He also has a 5.8-degree launch angle in that time, so Anderson has shown enough in recent times to give some semblance of optimism.

That's why I've got Anderson in the 'Hold For Now' section. He'll score a good number of runs as the leadoff hitter, will still hit for a good average, and could steal 20 runs (if he stays off the IL). I'm just not sure we'll see more than 10 homers this year, so plan accordingly for the power outage.

Rowdy Tellez - 1B, Milwaukee Brewers - 76% rostered

Last year, Tellez hit .219/.306/.461 with 35 homers, 89 RBI, 67 runs, and two stolen bases (153 games). He ended the year ranked 17th among first basemen and 115th overall in fantasy (according to Yahoo!). This year, Tellez is hitting .258/.345/.523 with 12 homers, 26 RBI, 20 runs, and no stolen bases (47 games).

That's enough to rank Tellez 15th among first basemen and 139th overall on Yahoo! And if he matches last year's 153 games, his current pace is for 39 homers, 85 RBI, 65 runs, and no steals. He's actually on track to have an overall better year than he did in 2022. So why is he rostered in a little more than three-quarters of fantasy leagues?

Well, there has been recent concern that he's fallen into a platoon. That isn't entirely the case, but even if it was, it wouldn't turn Tellez into waiver wire fodder. So far this month, the Brewers have faced 11 leftie starters with Tellez starting just three of those games. It's safe to say there is a 'soft platoon' occurring.

The reason I'm not too concerned about that is if we look at his splits last year and this year, the ratio of plate appearances against LHP and RHP isn't too dissimilar and we can see how much damage Tellez did against righties last year.

There's no doubt Tellez has considerably better power numbers against RHP than LHP but he's certainly no mug against lefties and has actually been a better-than-average hitter against southpaws. And I'm not going to pretend sitting against most LHP will be beneficial to Tellez's fantasy value.

But he showed last year how good he can be against RHP. This year, he's performing even better against them. Even if he falls into a strong platoon, Tellez can still finish the year with 30 homers, 75 RBI, 60 runs, and a ~.260 batting average. That will make him around a top-18 first baseman and fantasy-relevant.

Gunnar Henderson - 3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles - 70% rostered

Henderson was featured back in the Week 5 edition of The Cut List. Every week, I get asked "why don't you ever include Henderson?", so here he is. Again. And I feel like it is a good time to see where he is now compared to five weeks ago and if we've seen improvement. I've included some of the key stats we looked at five weeks ago.

The one stat that has the most notable difference is the slugging percentage. But for me, Henderson's swing rates are the most telling. Although his plate discipline was commendable and actually encouraging a few weeks ago, his passivity at the plate was ultimately harming his fantasy value. That's been changing.

If you don't know what you're looking at, it's Henderson's 'Swing Take Profile' and it's something we looked at back in the Week 5 edition. It shows the areas around the strike zone and the rate at which a hitter swings at pitches and takes them in each area.

Five weeks ago, Henderson was swinging at 69% of pitches in the heart of the zone. Normally, 69% of anything would be nice but not in this case. That's up to 73%. In the shadow region, Henderson was swinging at 33% of pitches. That is now at 39%. And the good news is for pitches in the chase region, Henderson has only increased his swing rate by 1%.

That tells me that Henderson is still showing a good eye at the plate and not chasing bad pitches but he's being a bit more aggressive and actively looking to make solid contact on pitches in and around the zone more often.

While Henderson's season line doesn't look great as he's hit .204/.339/.380 with five homers, 11 RBI, 27 runs, and two stolen bases, he's done what we wanted him to do since late April and been more aggressive at the plate. The results haven't been overwhelming but certainly better. If you've held on this long, you likely won't want to quit him now.

That's not to say things will continue trending upward. Given his pedigree and the fact he is still very much learning on the job, there's no reason to not believe in Henderson continuing along this path and getting fully back into fantasy managers' good books.

On the Hot Seat

Joe Musgrove - SP, San Diego Padres - 89% rostered

It was a pretty rotten start to 2023 for Musgrove. After fracturing his toe when he dropped a weight on it, Musgrove started the season on the IL and didn't make his 2023 debut until April 22. For his second start, Musgrove was sent out to pitch in the Mexico City game and unsurprisingly got lit up.

As of now, Musgrove has a 2-2 W-L record, 5.64 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 31 Ks (30.1 IP). On Friday, Musgrove completed six innings for the first time this year and allowed just one earned run, just to remind fantasy managers what he is capable of.

Before we go on, I'm going to do something I never do and that completely disregards an outing. The Mexico game was a hitter's dream and Musgrove gave up seven earned runs in 3.1 IP. Without that start, we're looking at a 4.00 ERA. Not great but much better than his current 5.64 ERA.

Before Friday's outing, I was still a little concerned about Musgrove moving forward. My concern was born out of the fact that he had gotten away from what has made him so successful in San Diego and that was throwing his fastball less and his slider more.

The below graph shows Musgrove's pitch usage per game this season. Although his slider usage is still down on previous years, Musgrove cut down on the fastball usage and threw the slider and curveball more.

To give you a sense of why it's so important for Musgrove to throw his fastball less, the below table shows some numbers broken down by pitch.

The sinker appears to be a much better pitch this year but Musgrove has only thrown it 26 times (5.0%), so I wouldn't concern yourself too much with that. But the majority of his pitches Stuff+ values are all around the same this year as they were last year.

The 2023 numbers are from a small sample, so the expected numbers should more closely resemble last year's as the season progresses. But even still, they highlight the need for Musgrove to throw his slider and curveball more and his fastball less if he is to have success.

In that regard, Friday was certainly a step in the right direction. As long as Musgrove doesn't go back to relying too much on his fastball, I expect his ERA to keep dropping and for Musgrove to return to being a top-30 starting pitcher. It's certainly something to monitor in his next few starts.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

David Bednar - RP, Pittsburgh Pirates - 95% rostered

In something that has become a bit of a theme this week, Bednar has done absolutely nothing wrong this year as evidenced by his 2-0 W-L record, 1.42 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 25 Ks, and nine saves (19.0 IP). The reason for fantasy managers' ire is that he's yet to register a save in May.

Last year, Bednar totaled 19 saves as the Pirates' predominant closer as they went on to lose 100 games. They've gone 6-16 in May, hence Bednar has been starved of the save opportunities he had in March and April when the Pirates won 20 of their 29 games.

Although I keep saying Statcast profiles shouldn't be used as a be-all-and-end-all for assessing players, Bednar's is a great visual to show how dominant he's been this year.

If you drafted Bednar, did you really expect him to have nine saves at this stage of the season? If we flipped the months around and he had none by May 1st and then picked up nine this month, he'd be touted as the best closer in fantasy. It's important to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

The Pirates are hovering around .500 and likely won't be in the playoff mix this year. Bednar won't be a free agent until 2027, so the Pirates would want a huge return to trade him away. Expect him to remain in Pittsburgh for the remainder of this season.

I never like dropping a closer as there will always be a team in your league willing to trade for one. If you drafted Bednar thinking he would have more saves than he did, you're likely a die-hard Pirates fan. He's been great and will continue to be great, so just hold and take the saves as and when they come.

Daulton Varsho - C/OF, Toronto Blue Jays - 94% rostered

Remember earlier in the piece, I mentioned there being seven catchers I wouldn't drop in fantasy. Well, Varsho is one of the seven. That's despite a mediocre .210/.278/.374 slash line but his eight homers, 22 RBI, 24 runs, and six steals are very fantasy friendly.

The Blue Jays using Varsho in the outfield and not as a catcher wasn't exactly a secret but he's catcher-eligible in fantasy this year. That is the position you would (should) have drafted him in. The below table shows how he ranks across each counting category at both positions.

If you did draft Varsho as an outfielder, at least he hasn't been too bad. This should also highlight how a borderline rosterable outfielder would make a top-10 catcher in fantasy, as is the paucity of solid fantasy options at the catcher position.

And after a rough first month of the season in which Varsho hit .194/.292/.296 with two homers, six RBI, 13 runs, and four steals, Varsho is hitting .227/.262/.454 with six homers, 16 RBI, 11 runs, and two stolen bases this month. He appears to have found his power stroke.

Varsho has a 162-game pace of 25 homers, 69 RBI, 75 runs, and 19 steals. With the fact he's had an uptick in his performances this month, it's certainly still not overly optimistic to believe Varsho can have a 20/20 season.

His ATC preseason projection was for 25 homers, 73 RBI, 75 runs, and 15 steals while hitting .239. I certainly believe that's still in play by the season's end. With better-expected stats than his actual numbers, too, everything points to Varsho comfortably being a top-10 catcher again this year.

Michael Harris II - OF, Atlanta Braves - 86% rostered

Last year's breakout star is having a pretty poor year so far but I'm hoping I can provide you some optimism. Firstly, I will say that I don't believe last year's performance was sustainable into this year and I don't believe we should expect him to repeat that.

But I also believe his numbers so far will improve significantly and the real Michael Harris II is somewhere between last year and this year. So far in 2023, Harris II has two homers, eight RBI, nine runs, and four stolen bases while hitting .177/.259/.281 (30 games).

Although 27 games is a small sample, let's compare some of his numbers from last year to this.

I could've used a multitude of stats for this comparison but I felt these give us not only an indication of how similar last year was to this year but also how Harris II managed to outperform his underlying numbers last year. It furthers my belief that Harris II wasn't as good as his numbers suggested in 2022 but also he's much better than his numbers show us this year.

There's also the consideration of the injury issues Harris II has had to endure so far. He missed three weeks in April due to a back injury, and they're never fun. He's also had knee issues and until this week was playing with a knee brace. Hopefully, the removal of the brace means whatever the issue was has now gone.

The other knock on Harris II's fantasy value is the fact he is entrenched in the bottom part of the Braves lineup. That's unlikely to change unless he goes on the mother of all hot streaks. 64 of Harris II's 114 games last year came hitting ninth, so it's not a death nail in his fantasy value.

Harris II is 22 years old and other than two rehab games this year, never played in Triple-A and only had 43 games at Double-A. There are going to be ups and downs like there are with the majority of young players but the future still looks bright and we should start seeing that in the next few weeks.

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