The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 10

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 10 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- May 27 through June 2. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the season rolls on, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Xander Bogaerts - 2B/SS, San Diego Padres - 84% rostered

This isn't Bogaerts' first appearance on The Cut List this season. He was penciled in to appear again this week as someone worth holding. That was until an awkward dive in Monday's game saw Bogaerts injure his left shoulder. It was soon determined that he had suffered a fractured shoulder. Although there's no further damage and surgery isn't required, it was a huge blow for the Padres second baseman.

Xander Bogaerts has a fracture in his left shoulder. No indication of labrum tear or need for surgery. Bone has to heal. He intends to play again this season, perhaps by late summer.
He remains in Cincinnati with team and more tests are planned today. https://t.co/qdXGcRsRcx

— Kevin Acee (@sdutKevinAcee) May 22, 2024

There hasn't been much additional information since. No timeline or even an expectation of when we might see Bogaerts on the field again. The fact that "he intends to play again" is a quote should cause concern for fantasy managers. Even that sounds like hope rather than expectation, and without anything definitive to go off of, we're in limbo a bit.

When he was playing, Bogaerts was hardly pulling up trees. In 47 games, he had four homers, 14 RBI, 23 runs, and four stolen bases with a .219/.265/.316 slash line. His 6.0% BB% was the lowest it's been since 2015 and Bogaerts was also striking out more than he had done in a decade (20.0% K%).

Verdict: It feels like some fantasy managers will be able to drop Bogaerts without hesitation now, having held him this long. That's perfectly fine. As with any injured player, if you have an empty IL spot you can stash him on, then do so. But Bogaerts was on course for a down year and if you have been hit by injuries and can't accommodate holding him, Bogaerts can be dropped. We might not even see him this year, or at least until the final weeks.

Justin Turner - 1B/2B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays - 66% rostered

Turner is the second former Red Sox hitter to feature this week and another infielder who is on track for a down year. After 45 games, Turner has a .225/.300/.364 slash line with four homers, 17 RBI, 18 runs, and no stolen bases. Turner's counting stats haven't been helped by the struggling Blue Jays offense. Only two teams have scored fewer runs than Toronto (194), although the veteran hitter also needs to shoulder some of the responsibility for that.

The fact he's 39 years old does remind us that Father Time remains undefeated. Turner defied his age last year when hitting .276/.345/.455 with 23 homers. He might just be slumping and not coming to the end. Whatever it is, the results haven't been pretty. And Statcast's newest addition to a hitter's profile might be the biggest indicator as to whether or not this is the end for Turner.

Only one player has a slower bat speed than Turner. It is worth mentioning that we don't have data for previous seasons. Turner might have had a similarly slow bat speed last year and in 2021 when he hit 27 homers. And Luis Arraez is the only player with a slower bat speed. So you can still hit for a good average. It just isn't easy to see where the power will come from. Even the ~10 homers that projection systems have him hitting the rest of 2024 may be optimistic.

Verdict: We shouldn't put too much emphasis on the new bat tracking metrics available to us. But, they're also worth reviewing with more context. The fact Turner is 39 years old and has been struggling makes him worth looking at replacing. I do expect an improvement in his batting average. However, hitting ~.250 with single-digit homers over ~100 games wouldn't make Turner worth rostering in anything but deeper leagues.

Hold For Now

Edwin Diaz - RP, New York Mets - 94% rostered

Despite missing the entire 2023 season, Diaz was being drafted as the No. 1 closer in most fantasy drafts. That's a testament to his dominance in 2022. Fantasy managers hoping for a return to dominance after his serious knee injury have been disappointed. In 20 games (20.0 IP), Diaz has a 1-1 W-L record, 5.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 30 Ks and five saves. His four blown saves already top his 2022 total.

Needless to say, the disappointment reached new levels when Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Diaz's role would be "fluid." Hardly what you want to hear when talking about your RP1. In most cases, when a closer loses his role, I'm an advocate for dropping them. However, this isn't a normal case and there are plenty of reasons to hold on to Diaz.

Carlos Mendoza didn’t commit to using anybody in particular if the Mets have a save situation today. He said Edwin Diaz’s usage is “fluid.”

“He’ll do whatever it takes,” he said. “Whether that’s pitching in the seventh, the eighth, the ninth—whenever that is—losing, winning.”

— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) May 19, 2024

The last two days have been indicative of his season. On Friday, Diaz pitched the seventh inning, giving up one hit and striking out two batters. He picked up his second hold of the season. The Mets still lost. On Saturday, Diaz was called upon to protect a one-run lead in the ninth inning. He gave up the tying run on two hits for his fourth blown save. The Mets went on to lose in extra innings.

He's still striking out plenty of batters, with his 35.3% K% ranking in the 98th percentile. He's inducing plenty of soft contact, as evidenced by his 85.9 mph average exit velocity (91st percentile). And he's been unlucky. Very unlucky. Diaz has a 2.67 xFIP and 2.27 SIERA. If we look at the difference between his ERA (5.40) and xERA (3.09), only 37 pitchers of the 433 to have faced at least 50 batters have been unluckier.

A large portion of that has been the long ball. After yielding just three home runs in 2022 and three in 2021, Diaz has already allowed five homers. His 26.3% HR/FB% is the fourth highest among the 192 qualified relievers. It's unlikely these things will continue and we should start seeing periods of dominance once again from Diaz. He should get the full-time closer role back sooner rather than later and is someone I'd be stashing.

Blake Snell - SP, San Francisco Giants - 93% rostered

Speaking of unlucky pitchers, let me introduce you to Blake Snell. Snell went on the paternity list earlier this week, following his fourth start of the season. It was his first start after missing over a month with an abductor strain. And it was another clunker that's left him with a 0-3 W-L record, 11.40 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, and 17 Ks (15.0 IP). Four starts aren't enough to take a deep dive into the numbers. But Snell's 4.19 xFIP and 4.30 SIERA are noticeable.

An ERA above 4.00 wasn't what fantasy managers hoped for when drafting Snell. Even if his results matched those underlying marks, we still wouldn't be looking at another Cy Young season. But, these are four starts after a troubled offseason in which Snell was still unemployed 10 days before Opening Day. Missing five weeks due to injury after just three starts following an unusual spring preparation was hardly ideal either.

It's also worth mentioning that Snell had a 6.00 ERA after four starts last year. In 2022, he had a 5.68 ERA after four starts. That was after missing the first six weeks of the season due to an abductor injury. Somewhat similar to this year. There are a handful of reasons to believe Snell can still be a very good fantasy option over the remainder of 2024. He's not someone I'd be dropping unless this slump drags into late June.

On the Hot Seat

Corbin Carroll - OF, Arizona Diamondbacks - 98% rostered

Normally for a player on the Hot Seat, I like to go deep into the numbers. With Carroll, while we will still look at some numbers, it doesn't seem as relevant. It appears to be obvious at this stage that he's still feeling the effects of the shoulder injury he suffered in late June. That's not ignoring the shoulder surgery he underwent in 2021. Although, it might not be that straightforward.

Given his numbers before and after June 29 (when Carroll hurt his shoulder), it's understandable why that looks like being the sole contributor to his struggles. The table below shows Carroll's hitting numbers up to the shoulder issue and afterward, along with this year's numbers.

There's a multitude of other stats we can look at that shows how Carroll regressed after injuring his shoulder. The biggest issue is how his numbers have dropped off a cliff this year. Most people would have expected some improvement after an offseason to recuperate and recover from the issue. The one thing about any lingering effects from the shoulder injury is that Carroll doesn't appear to show any pain while he's playing.

He's not been seen to favor the shoulder. He's not been seen grimacing while taking swings. He's only missed two games so far. Maybe the shoulder issue isn't the entire story. Carroll could of course be swinging differently now compared to how he was swinging before the shoulder injury. There may be adjustments and this is where it would be incredibly useful if we had hitters swing metrics for last season as a comparison.

The reality is, we simply won't know for sure how the shoulder is impacting Carroll unless he comes out and publically states it. What we can do is look at just how bad Carroll has been and what the rest of the season might look like.

The one silver lining is Carroll still has eight stolen bases. While that is well short of being on pace to match the 54 steals he had last year, a possible 30-steal season is nothing to be sniffed at. He also has a .235 xBA so if he can come close to matching that this year, his batting average won't be a huge negative. It'll just be slightly below the league average. Clutching at straws somewhat, but we have to look for some positives.

The reality is if you drafted Carroll this year, you would have used a first-round pick to do so. And unless your first-round pick gets hurt and misses the entirety of the season, you can't drop them. That being said if Carroll has a sub-.200 batting average in July with three homers and 12 stolen bases, I'd completely understand people dropping him.

My personal feeling is that if I rostered Carroll, I'd be doing so for the entire 2024 season. Unless you can get someone to trade for him and get a solid return, then you're pretty much stuck with him. Carroll's 2024 reminds me a lot of Bellinger's final two years in LA. When asked what to do with him back then, I'd say we know what he can do. We've seen it as recently as 2019 when he won the NL MVP.

However, it doesn't look like he'll come close to replicating that. So it boils down to what would be worse for you; dropping him, seeing him picked up by another team, and getting back to near his best on another roster. Or holding him and seeing him suck the rest of the year on your roster.

He could of course suck on someone else's roster or be great on yours. But of the two negative scenarios, which one would you find most tolerable? That will likely lead you to the answer as to what you should do with Corbin Carroll this year.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Manny Machado - 3B, San Diego Padres - 98% rostered

After averaging 30 homers a season over the last three years, Machado is in danger of not coming close to that mark. After 50 games, he's hitting .234/.284/.360 with five homers, 27 RBI, 22 runs, and two stolen bases. The power has been lacking and the batting average is lower than expected. But Machado does still rank 20th among third basemen. That's mainly down to still tallying a decent amount of counting stats.

No one drafted Machado hoping for just a top-20 third baseman. He was taken as a top-10 option at the position after all. But there are likely better days ahead for Machado. As we can see from his Statcast profile, we should already have seen a better slash line than we have. And let's not forget that Machado is still recovering from an elbow injury that kept him exclusively as the designated hitter for the first few weeks of the season.

Machado himself said the elbow was preventing him from swinging normally and he's still adapting to it. The fact he's now able to play the field regularly does suggest the elbow is fine. And Machado is hitting .323/.344/.484 since last Sunday. That includes three multi-hit games and at least one hit in seven of the eight games.

Maybe things just took longer than we had hoped to fully recover from. If Machado needed time to adapt to things caused by the elbow issue, he appears to be turning the corner. A couple of homers this week wouldn't go amiss, of course. The bottom line is that Machado isn't someone I'd be dropping and I expect a solid rest of the season from him.

Zach Eflin - SP, Tampa Bay Rays - 92% rostered

When asked about Eflin recently, I mentioned that my only concern is the lack of strikeouts. And how long he can stay healthy. Turns out, the latter was the biggest issue as Eflin was placed on the IL on Monday with a back issue. The good news is that it shouldn't be a lengthy stint and we should see Eflin back in early-mid June, according to Rays manager Kevin Cash.

#Rays Eflin said back issue popped up near end of last start, feels similar to last year when he missed about 2 weeks, and is thinking about same this time. Cash said it was unfortunate but also considers it similar to 2023, did say it could be 2-4 weeks this time

— Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) May 20, 2024

Eflin managed a career-high 177.2 IP last year. Much better than the 181.2 IP he managed across the previous two seasons. Fears about his health aren't as high as they used to be. So what about his numbers? Eflin will return from the IL with a 3-4 W-L record, 4.12 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 44 Ks (59.0 IP). His 3.78 xFIP and 3.88 SIERA tell us there's some room for the ERA to drop without much else changing. The strikeouts just need to increase.

His 17.9% K% is the lowest it's been since his 2017 sophomore season. The only significant change in his repertoire is a drop in curveball usage (from 26.3% last year to 19.7% this year). Given it has 29.8% Whiff% this year (34.9% Whiff rate in 2023), that's a decent chunk of potential strikeouts missing. However, Eflin is throwing his sweeper almost three times as much as last year and that has a 27.5% Whiff% this year. That will offset the drop in curveball usage.

The flip side is that Eflin has a 1.6% BB%, which ranks in the 99th percentile. He's got similar contact and swing numbers to last year. The big difference is Eflin has a career-high 56.6% Zone% (percentage of pitches thrown in the strike zone). He's just inducing weak contact and getting more outs that way. Last year's 26.5% K% looks like an outlier but Eflin should still be a solid rotation option when he returns, even with below-average strikeout numbers.

Vinnie Pasquantino - 1B, Kansas City Royals - 79% rostered

I wasn't going to include Pasquantino in The Cut List. But, he's been requested by a few people, which comes as a surprise to me. Pasquantino is currently ranked 20th among first basemen and 98th among all hitters on Yahoo. He has five homers, 32 RBI, 25 runs, and no stolen bases along with a .229/.311/.400 slash line (50 games). That's helped the Royals to a surprise second place in the AL Central division.

As what seems to be a theme this week, Pasquantino has better-expected numbers than what he actually has. His .278 xBA is in the 80th percentile, his .501 xSLG is in the 86th percentile and his .371 xwOBA (.311 wOBA) is in the 84th percentile. Pasquantino is one of the toughest hitters to strike out (12.6% K%) while still taking a good number of walks (10.2% BB%).

Pasquantino only had 133 MLB games of experience coming into this season so he is still pretty much a sophomore. There's growth potential and we are seeing signs of that. After a slow start, Pasquantino is hitting .257/.310/.419 in May. While more homers would be nice, they will likely come over time. His batting average is almost certainly going to move upwards during the coming months so I don't see any reason to drop Pasquantino in any league format.

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