TGL Semifinals Match Preview: Atlanta Drive vs. The Bay Golf Club

Palm Beach Gardens, FL

It's playoff season for TGL in their inaugural season and one ticket to the finals has already been punch by New York Golf Club. Tonight, at 7:00 PM ET airing live on ESPN, the No. 2 seed The Bay is set to take on the No. 3 seed Atlanta Drive in a rematch of one of the most electric matches of the season. It came down to the final hole, and Justin Thomas burned the edge on a 20 foot putt for eagle that would have sent the match into overtime.

This one should be fun tonight. We have two of the best teams which have also provided some of the most entertaining moments of the season. Here is everything you need to know to get you primed and ready to bet TGL tonight:

The First Match

As mentioned, The Bay narrowly achieved victory in their first match that was a part of the President's Day Triple Header. It was the debut of Min Woo Lee, but the key to the match was the clutch play by Wyndham Clark, who won both singles holes against Patrick Cantlay, which helped The Bay secure the 6-5 win.

Ludvig Aberg was operating that night on almost zero sleep but was able to play well despite not getting into Palm Beach until 4 am that morning after winning the prior day at Torrey Pines for the Genesis Invitational. Also noteworthy, the Atlanta Drive had a warmup match that took place right before this match against The Bay. Some could argue fatigue, but personally I think it has to be an advantage to play and get accustomed to the artificial grass and environment in the Sofi Center.

It was the only loss of the season for Atlanta. Lucas Glover played in the first meeting, but will be subbed out tonight in favor of Billy Horschel. For The Bay, their key player in the first meeting, Wyndham Clark, was originally in the lineup but had to WD due to an injury that he suffered during The PLAYERS. Min Woo Lee will be his replacement.

Wyndham Clark WD from The PLAYERS with Neck injury

https://t.co/emPaZgIXQS

— Savannah Leigh (@SportsGirlSL) March 14, 2025

The Lineups and Order:

Atlanta Drive: 1. Justin Thomas, 2. Billy Horschel, 3. Patrick Cantlay

The Bay: 1. Shane Lowry, 2. Min Woo Lee, 3. Ludvig Aberg

Semifinal #2 is TONIGHT on ESPN. 👀 pic.twitter.com/NKCDgdGrhO

— TGL (@TGL) March 18, 2025

The Rundown

I went to almost every TGL Match in person this year and The Bay looked like the best team to me for the majority of the season. That said, they came up short and looked out of sorts in their final match of the season against LAGC which moved them to the No. 2 spot in the standings.

The Bay still ranks #1 in several key metrics from TGL from the regular season. They were 1st in Strokes Gained Total, Birdies or Better, Driving Distance, Scrambling, and Around the Greens. Coincidentally, the Atlanta Drive actually ranked 2nd in all of those categories. Where Atlanta was able to excel this season was on the greens where they ranked 1st in Putting for the season.

The loss of Wyndham Clark is huge for The Bay. I believe he has been the MVP of the league so far. This team has been purely dominant off the tee, ranking 1st in distance, ball speed, and fairways hit. Much of that has been on Clark's shoulders. They have worked together as a team very well, finishing the year with 21 total points in the "Triples" portion of the matches where they play alternate shot. That's the most "Triples" points of any team in the league.

On the contrary, Atlanta has done the majority of their work in "Singles". They lead the league in points won and strokes gained during the individual portion of the matches. It will be interesting to see if this dynamic continues into the playoffs because most teams have been saving The Hammer for the singles portion to make those holes worth double points.

The Course Setup

All four of The Bay's most successful holes this season will be a part of the course setup for this match. On Bluebonnet, Cliffhanger, Craic On, and Stertling, they won 10 holes this season and only lost once. We will see the same setup as we did in last nights match between LAGC and New York. A number of these holes feature a pretty significant advantage position from the fairway, which is something Atlanta will need to improve on to play well tonight. In the regular season, Thomas, Horschel, and Cantlay all ranked in the bottom eight in terms of Driving Accuracy.

Betting Analysis

Both teams have properly utilized The Hammer all season. I think a lot of that comes down to the guy in charge of making the calls, which has been Patrick Cantlay for Atlanta and Wyndham Clark for The Bay. Shane Lowry has coined Clark as "Hammer Clark" for a reason. This could be a potential big advantage for Atlanta, who seems to understand the nuances of usage more than any other team with Cantlay at the helm.

On holes when The Hammer is played, Atlanta is +13 on the differential this season, best in the league by a big margin. It's a huge focal point of momentum in these tightly contested matches and successful usage often leads to victory. Tonight will be about controlling your golf ball and controlling your emotions. Min Woo Lee ultimately lost total control on the weekend at The PLAYERS and his inconsistency is a major downgrade from Clark.

Aberg is of course a stud, but also suffered a bad missed cut at TPC Sawgrass. He also hasn't played inside the Sofi Center in over a month, missing the last two matches. I have rooting interest in The Bay and also have a preseason bet on them to win the TGL, but my gut is telling me that Atlanta is the correct side tonight as an underdog. This trio of players for the Drive has not lost a match all season and they work exceptionally well with one another.

setting the bar.#HammerDown🔨 pic.twitter.com/1Vwso8tgE2

— Atlanta Drive GC (@atlantadrivegc) March 17, 2025

My Pick

Atlanta Drive -102

Thanks for reading, and enjoy TGL tonight!

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