Texans vs. Jets TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, Aaron Rodgers, Breece Hall, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson

The Week 9 Thursday Night Football matchup is a tale of two teams heading in opposite directions. Despite adding pieces over the last 18 months, the Jets are near the bottom of the AFC with a 2-6 record. They have acquired Aaron Rodgers, Braelon Allen, and Davante Adams, and added back Haason Reddick over the last two seasons, but still lost five in a row. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans lost their top two wide receivers now in four weeks but continue to pull out wins. They are 6-2 and the cream of the crop in the AFC South.

Stefon Diggs was lost for the season in Week 8 and Nico Collins isn't expected back until Week 10. That will leave Tank Dell and Joe Mixon as the heavy-usage players in this tough road matchup against the Jets in prime time.

I will bring you Thursday Night Football analysis all year, focusing on who to start, who is on the fence, and who should find the bench. Let's dive into this next awesome Thursday night matchup for Week 9 of the 2024 season. Good luck, RotoBallers!

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Houston Texans at New York Jets - 8:20 p.m. EDT

Notable Injuries:

• Nico Collins (WR - HOU) - Hamstring - OUT
• Stefon Diggs (WR - HOU) - Knee - OUT
• Dameon Pierce (RB - HOU) - Groin - Questionable
• Aaron Rodgers (QB - NYJ) - Knee/Hamstring - Questionable
• Allen Lazard (WR - NYJ) - Chest - Questionable

Texans vs. Jets Matchup Breakdown

Despite both teams having a running back that is among the best of the best in 2024, the Houston Texans and New York Jets are both top-12 in passing play percentage this season.

With C.J. Stroud and Aaron Rodgers under center, these teams also both average 10 yards per completion and are ninth and 11th in passing touchdowns per game, respectively. We should expect to see a heavy dose of receiver usage and running back bell-cow work in this game.

TNF up next on 𝓗𝓪𝓵𝓵𝓸𝔀𝓮𝓮𝓷.

🎟️: https://t.co/rxJ1DzR53i pic.twitter.com/qXtK55zMXe

— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 29, 2024

However, on the other side, the Jets and Texans rank second and third, respectively, in opponent passing yards per game. Both teams are top-4 in pass yards per attempt allowed to opponents and both are top-10 in opponent passer rating.

One of the most interesting matchups in this game will be each team's passing attack against the stout cornerbacks on the other side. Despite the inefficiencies here, the Jets certainly have the advantage with Collins and Diggs out.

But if the passing games aren't working, we should see big games from Breece Hall and Joe Mixon. Both of these teams allow well over 4.0 rushing yards per attempt and allow over 115 rushing yards per game.

Must-Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

Joe Mixon (RB, HOU)

Despite missing two games with an ankle injury, Joe Mixon is top-15 among running backs in rushing yards, red-zone touches, touchdowns, and target share. His 22.4 PPR fantasy points per game is first at the position this year. His massive volume is driving the success, and there is no reason to think that diminishes with how short-handed Houston will be at pass-catcher.

Joe Mixon out here playing like its 2016 man pic.twitter.com/GIAHSlEPoV

— JetPack Galileo (@JetPackGalileo) October 30, 2024

Tank Dell (WR, HOU)

It's now or never for Tank Dell as the last man standing of the Big Three Houston wide receivers. Dell played his highest snap share of the season last week (75%) and we have to think that will clear 80% against the Jets. He only has four targets in each of the last two games, but his nine targets in Week 6 are more in line with what we should expect in this new-look offense.

Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)

The roller-coaster season for Breece Hall continues. After back-to-back games under 10 fantasy points, he followed that up with two games over 19 points in Weeks 6 and 7. But then in Week 8, he was back down under 10 again. Fortunately, the opportunity remains elite and he is playing more than 75% of snaps every game. Hall (46) is also second on the team in targets this season.

The Jets likely scaled back Breece Hall's workload vs the Patriots in preparation of the short week with a TNF game vs the Texans.

Expect Hall to be fed this week.

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) October 29, 2024

Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)

Garrett Wilson has seen 27 targets over the last three weeks, so the arrival of Davante Adams hasn't impacted his ability to demand throws his way. He has back-t0-back five-catch games with 174 total yards and remains the primary target while Davante Adams gets up to speed with the offense.

Davante Adams (WR, NYJ)

With 15 targets and 95% of snaps played in his two games with New York, it's safe to say that Davante Adams is already approaching must-start status. He only has seven receptions in two games, but Aaron Rodgers is giving Adams first read after first read and it's just a matter of time before Adams breaks off a huge game.

Solid Starts for Fantasy Football Lineups

C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)

C.J. Stroud has to get dinged some for the loss of Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, especially as he travels to face a defense led by Haason Reddick and Sauce Gardner. But even before those injuries, Stroud hasn't been the prolific passer he was in 2023.

On the season, Stroud is just the QB22 in fantasy points per game (15.3), with Aaron Rodgers even fractions of a point ahead of him.

CJ Stroud from the pocket or on the move…it doesn’t matter. Dot! 🎯 #htownmade pic.twitter.com/HQn9ckgxJg

— Full-Time Dame 💰 (@DP_NFL) October 28, 2024

Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU)

One receiver who has seen more work with his teammates succumbing to injury is Dalton Schultz. He has 22 targets in the last four weeks despite just 16 in his first four. Schultz's four catches for 52 yards in Week 8 both represented season highs and he is over 78% of snaps in three of the last four weeks.

Aaron Rodgers (QB, NYJ)

The Houston pass rush is what worries me for Aaron Rodgers as his offensive line has not done a good job protecting him this year. Houston is third in the league with a 9.9% sack rate, which could make life miserable for the 40-year-old quarterback. But if he can remain protected, Rodgers has the weapons at his disposal to put up another 250-yard, two-touchdown game.

Consider Sitting for Fantasy Football Lineups

Robert Woods, John Metchie, and Xavier Hutchinson (WRs, HOU)

With Collins and Diggs out, it is likely to be Xavier Hutchinson who steps up into the WR2 role alongside Tank Dell, but that doesn't mean he is worth streaming this week. In Week 8, Hutchinson played 64% of snaps and saw just one target. In Week 7, he played 62% of snaps and saw ... one target.

Robert Woods and John Metchie both played under 35% of snaps even in a game where Diggs left hurt halfway through.

Braelon Allen (RB, NYJ)

It was encouraging to see Braelon Allen jump from a 9% snap share to 31% in Week 8, and he scored a touchdown. But Breece Hall has been at or above 75% of snaps for four straight weeks and Allen had just 12 total touches in the three games before his 12 touches in Week 8.

TD FOR THE ROOK, @BraelonAllen 🙌#NYJvsNE on CBS & @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/nKVv6yqW6r

— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 27, 2024

Mike Williams and Allen Lazard (WRs, NYJ)

Allen Lazard is very questionable to play with a chest injury (he missed Week 8) and Mike Williams played 60% of snaps last week and didn't receive a single target. It's a new world order with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson around, and these guys are on the outside looking in.

Tyler Conklin (TE, NYJ)

Even though Tyler Conklin got wrapped up in National Tight Ends Day and got a touchdown in Week 8, that's probably not a play to double down on. Conklin has two games this season with more than eight half-PPR points and the Texans allow the fourth-fewest points to the position this season.

Kirksey’s Thursday Night Football Picks

Current Spread: New York Jets -2
Over/Under: 42.5

The Jets have won two games this season, and the quarterbacks they beat were Will Levis and Jacoby Brissett. Neither of those quarterbacks had a starting job heading into Week 8.

The defense for the Jets has not been as advertised this season and now they get one of the most cerebral and accurate quarterbacks visiting their backyard in C.J. Stroud. Add in the fact that Joe Mixon looks like a Breece Hall clone right now, and the advantage has to go to Houston, even with its two primary wide receivers missing.

And on a short week, don't discount the struggles that Greg Zuerlein has had this year. The Jets don't have time to replace him before this Thursday's game, but he has missed multiple kicks many times this year. That could be the factor in this game.

I do see this one as a close battle, perhaps with Houston winning by three points or less, similar to its win in Week 8. I'm calling my shot at Houston 24, New York 23.

The Pick: HOU +2, OVER 42.5

2024 Record:
Spread (4-4), Over/Under (6-2)

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