RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~52 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~72
ANALYSIS: Since McLaurin was drafted, Washington has never, not once, thrown for more than 3,725 yards in five years. It has never had 25 touchdowns. Washington has finished with fewer than 3,500 passing yards in four out of the last five seasons. Twice, it has finished with less than 20 touchdowns.
In McLaurin’s five seasons in Washington, the team averages 3,462 passing yards and 20.5 touchdowns per season. Washington has the 10th-fewest passing yards and seventh-fewest passing touchdowns since McLaurin’s rookie season.
Despite that, McLaurin has had over 1,000 yards every season since his rookie year. From 2020-2023, excluding his rookie season, McLaurin is averaging 7.82 targets, 4.85 receptions, 66.12 yards, and 0.27 touchdowns per game.
Those per-game averages equate to 133 targets, 82 receptions, 1,124 yards, and 4.5 touchdowns over 17 games. It's pretty darn impressive, considering how pathetic his quarterbacks have been.
Enter Jayden Daniels. It is not a stretch to say he’ll be, by far, the best passer McLaurin has ever played with. He’s caught passes from Case Keenum, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert, Carson Wentz, Sam Howell, and Jacoby Brissett.
We don't need Daniels to be a superstar. We just need him to be okay, that would be an improvement on what McLaurin has dealt with thus far.
In his four seasons with the Cardinals, Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses averaged 614 pass attempts per season. In 2022, they threw the football 664 times, which is a bit of an outlier. In 2019-2021, they averaged 597 pass attempts per year. From 2019-2021, again eliminating the 2022 season, the Cardinals averaged 4,044 yards per season and 25.5 touchdowns.
WRs who have at least 75 receptions & 1,000 receiving yards in each of their last four seasons ⬇️
Davante Adams
Stefon Diggs
Tyreek Hill
Terry McLaurin pic.twitter.com/jHeP85IPNw— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) July 4, 2024
McLaurin had a 21.6% target share in 2023. Before that, he had target shares of 22.6% (2022), 24.5% (2021), and 25.4% (2020). If we expect the Commanders to throw it 597 times as Kingsbury’s offenses did in Arizona, and McLaurin has a 22% target share, he’d have roughly 125 targets.
Based on his career averages, he’d finish with 78 receptions, 1,092 yards, and five touchdowns. But those career averages are based on his time catching balls from Keenum, McCoy, Smith, Haskins, Allen, Heinicke, Gilbert, Wentz, Howell, and Brissett.
What if Daniels is a lot better? Shouldn't that be the expectation because he’s the No. 2 overall pick and a former Heisman winner?
His current cost indicates fantasy managers can mostly buy him at his floor. While McLaurin may have disappointed in years past, he’s continued to show he’s one of the better receivers in the league. Hopefully, Daniels can bring out more from McLaurin than we’ve seen thus far.
More Fantasy Football Values and Sleepers
Will Dissly (TE, LAC) – Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 12
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12-Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 24% of Yahoo Leagues ANALYSIS: Los Angeles Chargers tight end Will Dissly is the TE21 for the year, averaging six half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran tight end was a popular streaming option in Week 11 because of his matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. They […]
Zach Ertz (TE, WAS) – Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 12
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12-Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 33% of Yahoo Leagues ANALYSIS: Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz has had a solid season. The veteran tight end is the TE11 for the year, averaging 7.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While Terry McLaurin has been Jayden Daniels' go-to target, Ertz has seen at […]
Taysom Hill (TE, NO) – Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 12
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12-Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 54% of Yahoo Leagues ANALYSIS: New Orleans Saints tight end Taysom Hill is the ultimate do-it-all weapon. While he is listed as a tight end, the veteran’s fantasy value comes in the run game. He has had at least 14 rushing yards in every game this season. […]
Elijah Moore (WR, CLE) – Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 12
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12-Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 8% of Yahoo Leagues ANALYSIS: Cleveland Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore has been a fantasy football bust for most of his career. The veteran wide receiver is the WR71 for the year, averaging 5.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he has played significantly better since […]
Quentin Johnston (WR, LAC) – Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 12
BALLER MOVE: Add in 12-Team Leagues ROSTERED IN: 41% of Yahoo Leagues ANALYSIS: Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston has had a breakout sophomore year after an awful rookie season. The former TCU star is the WR40, averaging 10.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite missing time with an injury. He has been […]
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!
