RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~52 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~72
ANALYSIS: Since McLaurin was drafted, Washington has never, not once, thrown for more than 3,725 yards in five years. It has never had 25 touchdowns. Washington has finished with fewer than 3,500 passing yards in four out of the last five seasons. Twice, it has finished with less than 20 touchdowns.
In McLaurin’s five seasons in Washington, the team averages 3,462 passing yards and 20.5 touchdowns per season. Washington has the 10th-fewest passing yards and seventh-fewest passing touchdowns since McLaurin’s rookie season.
Despite that, McLaurin has had over 1,000 yards every season since his rookie year. From 2020-2023, excluding his rookie season, McLaurin is averaging 7.82 targets, 4.85 receptions, 66.12 yards, and 0.27 touchdowns per game.
Those per-game averages equate to 133 targets, 82 receptions, 1,124 yards, and 4.5 touchdowns over 17 games. It's pretty darn impressive, considering how pathetic his quarterbacks have been.
Enter Jayden Daniels. It is not a stretch to say he’ll be, by far, the best passer McLaurin has ever played with. He’s caught passes from Case Keenum, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert, Carson Wentz, Sam Howell, and Jacoby Brissett.
We don't need Daniels to be a superstar. We just need him to be okay, that would be an improvement on what McLaurin has dealt with thus far.
In his four seasons with the Cardinals, Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses averaged 614 pass attempts per season. In 2022, they threw the football 664 times, which is a bit of an outlier. In 2019-2021, they averaged 597 pass attempts per year. From 2019-2021, again eliminating the 2022 season, the Cardinals averaged 4,044 yards per season and 25.5 touchdowns.
WRs who have at least 75 receptions & 1,000 receiving yards in each of their last four seasons ⬇️
Davante Adams
Stefon Diggs
Tyreek Hill
Terry McLaurin pic.twitter.com/jHeP85IPNw— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) July 4, 2024
McLaurin had a 21.6% target share in 2023. Before that, he had target shares of 22.6% (2022), 24.5% (2021), and 25.4% (2020). If we expect the Commanders to throw it 597 times as Kingsbury’s offenses did in Arizona, and McLaurin has a 22% target share, he’d have roughly 125 targets.
Based on his career averages, he’d finish with 78 receptions, 1,092 yards, and five touchdowns. But those career averages are based on his time catching balls from Keenum, McCoy, Smith, Haskins, Allen, Heinicke, Gilbert, Wentz, Howell, and Brissett.
What if Daniels is a lot better? Shouldn't that be the expectation because he’s the No. 2 overall pick and a former Heisman winner?
His current cost indicates fantasy managers can mostly buy him at his floor. While McLaurin may have disappointed in years past, he’s continued to show he’s one of the better receivers in the league. Hopefully, Daniels can bring out more from McLaurin than we’ve seen thus far.
More Fantasy Football Values and Sleepers
Alexander Mattison (RB, LV) - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 16
BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues ROSTERED IN: 45% of Leagues ANALYSIS: With Sincere McCormick (ankle) being placed on the injured reserve, Alexander Mattison should be expected to lead the Las Vegas backfield for the remainder of the season and should be added in all formats. During the first nine games of the season, Mattison […]
Patrick Taylor Jr. (RB, SF) - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 16
BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues ROSTERED IN: 24% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Patrick Taylor is in line to be the feature back for the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16. After getting some work in Week 14 against the Bears when Isaac Guerendo went down late in the game, Taylor played only 6% of the […]
Michael Penix Jr. (QB, ATL) - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 16
BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues ROSTERED IN: 5% of Leagues ANALYSIS: We're going to take a hard stance on this situation. Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins was benched for rookie QB Michael Penix Jr., and we're recommending that you add him in all leagues. There are a few reasons for this, but first, let's […]
Brenton Strange (TE, JAX) - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 16
BALLER MOVE: Add in PPR Leagues ROSTERED IN: 7% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange caught 11 of his 12 targets for 73 yards in the Jags' loss to the New York Jets in Week 15. Such high volume warrants an addition in PPR leagues. While he didn't make any big plays […]
Jerome Ford (RB, CLE) - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 16
BALLER MOVE: Add in All Leagues ROSTERED IN: 43% of Leagues ANALYSIS: Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford will take over as the team's lead back for the remainder of the season after RB Nick Chubb (foot) broke his foot in Week 15, ending his 2024 campaign. Ford has been highly efficient with his opportunities […]
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!
