X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

Projecting the Titans Offense Without Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry - Fantasy Football Rankings NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

The initial shock of Derrick Henry's season-ending injury was a stinging slap to the face of the Titans fanbase right after a fourth straight victory that has them sitting as the top seed in the AFC. For fantasy football GMs in a similar position thanks to the RB1's dominance, it's been a similarly tumultuous week.

Hopefully, those with Henry have progressed beyond the denial, anger, and depression stages and have moved into acceptance. A little bargaining might be necessary too, just in a different way. But now the task of trying to replace him is left to undertake both in reality and fantasy.

In this space, I will dig into the Tennessee offense to decipher who will see an increase in fantasy value and who is worth putting into lineups for Week 9 and beyond.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

 

A Titanic Offense Ready to Sink?

After the first eight games, Tennessee had gained the seventh-most total yardage of any team with 3,017 yards of offense. Only three teams have a higher percentage of yardage come from the running game at 39%, nearly off it accounted for by Henry.

The Bears run for 51% of the total yardage but mostly because they are dead last in passing and total yards. The Browns and Saints have a 42% and 40% team rushing percentage, respectively. The Saints have the second-lowest total yardage and passing yardage in the league above only Chicago. That leaves Cleveland as the most comparable offense to Tennessee and they are, in fact, just ahead of them in total yards.

Both offenses function very similarly by relying on the run to set up the pass. Their quarterbacks are efficient in limited capacity but are best used as game managers rather than high-volume passers. The key difference is that Cleveland deploys a two-man RB committee of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rather than just one runner like Henry. They were without Chubb for two games and Hunt has been out since Week 7 but only once were both backs missing in action. Even then, backup D'Ernest Johnson ran for 146 yards as the starter. In Cleveland's system, the RBs are practically interchangeable; it's not the case for Tennessee.

Derrick Henry has the highest team market share of carries at RB by far at 84%. He has toted the rock 219 times in eight games; only 41 rush attempts didn't belong to Henry, with QB Ryan Tannehill the team's second-leading rusher at 165 yards on 23 carries. He dominated team rush attempt rate by position even more at 95%. The next closest is Najee Harris at 88% followed by Dalvin Cook at 81%.

Henry has been dominant, no doubt. Most of that has been based on the insane volume of touches, though. Henry led the league with 303 carries in 2019 and again with 378 carries in 2020. Through Week 8, he was on pace for the most touches of his career with a league-high 219 carries and a career-high 2.3 receptions per game that is double his previous mark of 1.2 R/G. The irony is that which made him so valuable in fantasy is ultimately what led to the Jones fracture on his right foot which hampered him the last two games and led to season-ending surgery.

It goes without saying that whoever plays running back in Tennessee won't get anything close to the number of touches King Henry did. That doesn't bode well because he has seen his effectiveness wane the last two years despite his spike in fantasy points.

Henry's usage has jumped to astronomical (by modern NFL standards) rates but he has seen his rushing average drop down to 4.3 yards per carry this season. Many will say this was bound to happen eventually and it's hard to argue otherwise. The point is that if the best running back in the game was posting a pedestrian rushing average, it would be hard to imagine another RB in this system doing too well. Still, a running back with a path to touches is invaluable these days, so let's examine the current backfield in Tennessee.

 

Running Game Options

Despite much speculation that they might trade for a running back like Melvin Gordon or Marlon Mack, the NFL trade deadline came and went without such a move being made to replace Henry. In fact, no RBs changed teams in a completely uneventful deadline day on the offensive side of the ball.

Instead, the Titans opted to sign 36-year-old Adrian Peterson, who has not played yet in 2021. Peterson last appeared with Detroit in 2020 where he ran for 604 yards in 156 carries. Many in the fantasy community believe Peterson is washed up because he ran for fewer than four yards per carry and didn't have a 100-yard game last season. For what it's worth, Peterson still has confidence in his ability.

The passing-down back will remain Jeremy McNichols, who has 21 receptions on 27 targets for 203 yards. Like all other Titans backs, he was not used as a runner, tallying seven carries. It might logically follow that McNichols will have a chance to earn carries with Henry out but it's something he's never really done in the NFL. He saw 47 rush attempts in Tennessee last year and totaled two rush attempts over the previous three years in sparse game action with Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and San Francisco. In other words, this isn't a potential lead back who just needs a shot. He may see around 5-7 carries a game but the floor is exactly the same as it was with Henry on the field: practically zero.

The third running back on the Titans' active roster is D'Onta Foreman, who was signed off the practice squad. Foreman hasn't appeared in a game this season but did play in six contests for Tennessee last year, rushing 22 times for 95 yards. Foreman's promising 2017 rookie campaign with the Colts was cut short by an Achilles tear and he has struggled to stay in the league since then. The former UT Longhorn is the closest in build to Henry with a playing weight of 236 pounds and boasts a Speed Score in the 94th percentile; he ran a 4.46 40 on his Pro Day years ago. He doesn't have the same level of physicality or the top-end breakaway speed of Henry, but then again who does?

Last year's third-round pick, Darrynton Evans, would have had a golden opportunity to contribute but he simply can't stay healthy. Evans missed the first six games of the year, came back to play in Week 7, and now is back on IR with the same knee injury. He can be dropped in all formats, including dynasty.

 

Does the Passing Game Get a Boost?

Another issue of interest to fantasy managers is how Ryan Tannehill and his wide receivers will fare without Derrick Henry. The simple truth is this: we have no idea.

Henry has played in 86 of a possible 88 games throughout his career. The last time he didn't suit up was Week 16 of 2019. That's the only time we've seen Ryan Tannehill in a Titans uniform without Henry lined up behind him. For what it's worth, he threw for 272 yards and three TDs that game but it was on just 27 pass attempts despite a 10-point deficit entering the fourth quarter.

Tennessee is unlikely to turn into a pass-first offense because that's not how they are built and it's not how their coaches or personnel are accustomed to doing things. Their defense frequently lapses to the point that they are playing from behind but it hasn't changed the gameplan. Ryan Tannehill is 17th in pass attempts this season and was 18th last season. He averages 250.3 yards per game, good for 14th. He's as middle-of-the-road as it gets, making him a high-end QB2 and occasional streamer with upside but not a league winner by any stretch. Not much should change because even a slight uptick in volume will be offset by the reduction in offensive efficiency. In other words, without Henry, he might get to throw it or run it in himself when they get to the red zone now but they'll have to get there first.

For what it's worth, Titans' OC Todd Dowling has publicly stated that we should expect to see more of the same going forward.


As far as the receiving corps, A.J. Brown sees no change in value - he has proven himself to be a weekly WR1 when healthy and was never a player who was dependent on heavy target volume. Julio Jones is not startable for the simple fact he cannot stay healthy and is still acclimating to a new quarterback. Don't even think about the rest of the receivers or tight ends on this offense - they weren't fantasy-relevant before and they won't be in the near future.

 

How to Proceed

Let's start with the most immediate concern. If you've lost Henry on your fantasy team, you likely are desperate for a replacement. First, the in-house options.

If you've added McNichols and/or Peterson, it's not so much that you want them as you need them. Despite the uncertainty of how the touches will be distributed among the Tennessee running backs, anyone other than Derrick Henry is a must-sit in Week 9. The Titans have the displeasure of facing the Rams who decided their top-five offense needed to get stronger by adding nine-time Pro Bowler Von Miller. Resident O-line expert Dan Fornek has already warned against starting Titans in this matchup. Their top tackle, Taylor Lewan, has battled injuries this season but he played 99% of the team's offensive snaps in Week 8 so at least he should be a full participant.

Over the long term, McNichols is bound to be the one who benefits most because he will be the pass-catching back and he knows the offense the best. He isn't guaranteed to get the most touches but he'll get the ones that count and has the highest floor. The ceiling is admittedly low, however, so he is at best an RB3 in PPR leagues and bench depth in standard leagues.

Peterson isn't the most inspiring addition in fantasy but he could wind up as the lead back. In games he started for Detroit last year, he averaged 10.7 attempts per game. On an objectively better team, he should see more favorable game script and average between 12-15 attempts per game with the occasional reception.

The main appeal with AP is his touchdown upside. Henry is currently second in the league in red-zone attempts (37) and third in money-zone attempts (8). Tennessee should utilize him enough to provide high-end RB3 value although that comes with a slight bump in non-PPR leagues. He is worth adding in most leagues of 12 teams or more.

Those who missed out on the other two Tennessee RBs, chose to pivot elsewhere, or simply have a bench spot to spare might want to stash Foreman in hopes that he emerges from this backfield as the best fantasy asset. It's a longshot but in this day of endless injuries at the position, any flier is worth taking. That couldn't be more true when it comes to replacing the overall RB1, Derrick Henry.

Other options that could still be available on the waiver wire include: Boston Scott, Phillip Lindsay, or Ty Johnson. Not great options, mind you, but options nonetheless.

There are numerous trade scenarios that might play a role in compensating for the loss of a dominant running back, such as: buying low on David Montgomery or Kareem Hunt before they return from injury, trying a two-for-one to grab cheap stopgaps like James Conner and Zack Moss in exchange for a WR, assuming you have the depth, or swap out a top-tier WR for another RB1 like Joe Mixon.

All told, things will be very different for the Titans the remainder of this season but they will likely survive and make the postseason. Fantasy teams might not be so lucky but remember that it ain't over til it's over!




Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Mike Evans1 hour ago

Practicing Again On Thursday
Chandler Stephenson2 hours ago

Registers Three Assists Versus Predators
Jason Robertson2 hours ago

Totals Three Points In Wednesday's Win
Nils Lundkvist3 hours ago

Exits Early With A Lower-Body Injury
Matthew Knies3 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Mikael Granlund3 hours ago

Exits Late With Injury Wednesday
Patrik Laine3 hours ago

Returns To Practice
Ausar Thompson3 hours ago

Listed As Doubtful For Thursday
Walker Kessler3 hours ago

Still Missing For Jazz
Jordan Clarkson3 hours ago

Questionable To Face Spurs
Devin Vassell4 hours ago

To Miss Third Consecutive Game
Chris Paul4 hours ago

Considered Probable For Thursday's Game
Khris Middleton4 hours ago

Medically Cleared To Play
Chris Sale14 hours ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal14 hours ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Paul George14 hours ago

Exits Game On Wednesday, Hyperextends Left Knee Again
Scoot Henderson15 hours ago

Leaves Game On Wednesday, Won't Return
Jalen Johnson15 hours ago

Active On Wednesday Night
Zach Collins16 hours ago

Uncertain To Play On Thursday
Austin Eckroat16 hours ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English16 hours ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin16 hours ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy16 hours ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Patrick Williams16 hours ago

Likely To Miss At Least One Week
Kyle Anderson16 hours ago

Available For Matchup With Hawks
Victor Wembanyama16 hours ago

Out Again On Thursday
Jusuf Nurkic16 hours ago

Available On Wednesday
Stephen Curry16 hours ago

Will Play Against Atlanta
De'Anthony Melton17 hours ago

To Undergo Season-Ending ACL Surgery
Tre Mann17 hours ago

Probable For Thursday Night Matchup Against Detroit
Mike Conley17 hours ago

Appears On Injury Report For Thursday With Toe Injury
Donte DiVincenzo17 hours ago

Questionable Heading Into Thursday
Josh Jacobs17 hours ago

Limited With Multiple Injuries
DeVonta Smith17 hours ago

Misses Practice On Wednesday
Isaiah Hartenstein17 hours ago

To Make Season Debut On Wednesday
Tyrese Maxey17 hours ago

Active On Wednesday
Seth Jones19 hours ago

Expected To Miss Four Weeks
Sam Darnold19 hours ago

Limited With Foot Injury
Max Domi19 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Jalen Hurts19 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Connor Ingram19 hours ago

Out Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Jake Ferguson19 hours ago

Picks Up A DNP On Wednesday
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen20 hours ago

Returns To Action Versus Kings
CeeDee Lamb20 hours ago

Listed As Limited, Dealing With Two Injuries
Alex Tuch20 hours ago

Available Wednesday
Tage Thompson20 hours ago

Remains Out On Wednesday
Sam LaPorta20 hours ago

Practicing In Full
Jordan Eberle20 hours ago

To Remain Out On Wednesday
George Kittle20 hours ago

Will Play In Week 12
Ludvig Aberg20 hours ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Ladd McConkey20 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Si Woo Kim20 hours ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy20 hours ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole20 hours ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
San Francisco 49ers21 hours ago

Nick Bosa Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Christian McCaffrey21 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
George Kittle21 hours ago

Limited During Wednesday's Practice
Brock Purdy21 hours ago

Limited On Wednesday
Alexander Mattison21 hours ago

Zamir White Not Practicing On Wednesday
Sam LaPorta22 hours ago

Trending Towards Playing In Week 12
Calvin Ridley23 hours ago

Out Wednesday With Illness
Isiah Pacheco24 hours ago

To Practice On Wednesday
D'Andre Swift1 day ago

Won't Practice On Wednesday
Brandin Cooks1 day ago

Cowboys Open Brandin Cooks' Practice Window
Mike Evans1 day ago

Practicing Again On Wednesday
Connor Bedard1 day ago

Ends Drought With Two Assists
Sam Reinhart1 day ago

Pushes Point Streak To 11 Games
Mark Scheifele1 day ago

Celebrates Ninth Career Hat Trick
Evan Bouchard1 day ago

Rocks Senators With Three-Point Period
Connor McDavid1 day ago

Nets Two Goals During Three-Point Night
TB1 day ago

Nicholas Paul Exits Early With Injury Tuesday
Zach Hyman1 day ago

Sits Out Third Period Versus Senators
2 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers2 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
Jonas Brodin2 days ago

Returns To Action
2 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri2 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
2 days ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
2 days ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
2 days ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
2 days ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
2 days ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
Luis Gil3 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Paul Skenes3 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brady Singer3 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
3 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
3 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
3 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler3 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva3 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy3 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
Nick Martinez4 days ago

Signs Qualifying Offer With Reds
4 days ago

Luis Severino Likely To Decline Qualifying Offer From Mets
James Llontop4 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig4 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal4 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic4 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones4 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title
Grayson Rodriguez6 days ago

Orioles Optimistic Grayson Rodriguez Will Have A Full Spring Training
6 days ago

Red Sox Have Productive Meeting With Juan Soto

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
DJ Moore - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 12 - Thursday Updates for Deebo Samuel, D.J. Moore, Jerry Jeudy, Jonathon Brooks, Jauan Jennings, Tank Dell

Many fantasy managers are in must-win situations down the stretch, so it's never been more important to ace your start-or-sit calls. Our Week 12 TNF fantasy football overall rankings for 2024 are here to help. Ahead of the critical Week 12 slate of action, let's find out where players on the start-sit bubble such as […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football FLEX Rankings (RB, WR, TE) - Week 12 Thursday Updates for Chuba Hubbard, Calvin Ridley, Cedric Tillman, Jonnu Smith, Austin Ekeler

It's always tough to compare two flex options at different positions, but bye weeks and key injuries have made those start-sit decisions even tougher. We're here to help guide you with your lineup calls with our Week 12 TNF fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. Navigate the rankings below to find out where top flex […]


Tua Tagovailoa - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Fantasy Football Superflex 2QB Rankings for Week 12 - Thursday Updates for Tua Tagovailoa, Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, Austin Ekeler, Jayden Reed

Time is running out to collect "Ws" before the fantasy football playoffs begin, and if you need assistance, our Week 12 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for fantasy football can assist your start-or-sit efforts. Let's get to it! To begin Week 12 preparation, let's dig into the rankings to find out where key Superflex options […]


Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Running Back Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday RB Updates for Jonathon Brooks, J.K. Dobbins, Bucky Irving, Najee Harris, Kareem Hunt

We're onto Week 12 of the NFL campaign, which can only mean the fantasy football playoffs are just ahead. Whether you're at the top of your league standings, fighting for a playoff spot, or are just trying to play spoiler, our Week 12 TNF fantasy football running back rankings for 2024 are here to help you […]


TNF Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday WR Updates for Cedric Tillman, Jauan Jennings, Josh Downs, Jerry Jeudy, DJ Moore

At the wide receiver spot especially, bye weeks and injuries are major factors in Week 12. If you don't have an excess of must-start WRs and need help identifying the top available options, we're here to help with our Week 12 TNF fantasy football wide receiver rankings for 2024. Let's dive in below to see […]


Jonnu Smith - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

TNF Tight End Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday TE Updates for George Kittle, David Njoku, Will Dissly, Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry

In most leagues, only three weeks of the fantasy football regular season remain. If you desperately need a win to clinch a first-round bye or quality for the playoffs, use our Week 12 TNF fantasy football tight end rankings to help you with tough start-or-sit calls at the challenging TE spot. Ahead of the critical Week […]


Tommy DeVito- Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Not All Heroes...Play On Good Teams - Giants, Patriots, and Cowboys Fantasy Football Outlooks

It's well-known at this point that good offenses can help their players light up the scoreboards in fantasy football leagues. The mantra "trust in good players on good offenses" rings true, and some of the best seasons in fantasy football history have been aided by things like good playcalling and a good supporting cast. The […]


Baker Mayfield - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

TNF Quarterback Fantasy Football Rankings - Week 12 Thursday QB Updates for Anthony Richardson, Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Bo Nix, C.J. Stroud

It's a critical week for fantasy football, as the playoffs are just around the corner. If you need help to nail your optimal lineups this week, our Week 12 TNF fantasy football quarterback rankings for 2024 are here to assist. Ahead of the all-important Week 12 slate, let's navigate the rankings below and find out […]


Jaylen Waddle - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Jaylen Waddle Fantasy Football Outlook - What's Wrong With Waddle?

Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle was widely pushed as a potential league-winner in fantasy football in 2024 due to a variety of factors. The explosiveness and big-play ability of the Dolphins offense, the good play of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, and his talent were a few of them. It's not worked out that way. It's […]


Isiah Pacheco - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Running Backs

Fantasy Football Injury Reports: Week 12 Updates for Isiah Pacheco, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Jalen Hurts, CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Hurts, George Kittle, Calvin Ridley, more

Week 12 of the NFL's 2024 slate is coming up, and as the fantasy football playoffs draw closer, it's becoming more important than ever to stay ahead of injury news for key players. Leaving a hurt player in your lineup can result in disaster. The author of this article missed out on the fantasy playoffs […]


Jauan Jennings - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Breakouts for Fantasy Football - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends for Week 12 (2024)

Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Fantasy Football Breakouts - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends Analysis For Week 12 by Kevin Tompkins Targets are paramount when it comes to evaluating pass-catchers for fantasy football. There are no air yards, receiving yards, receptions, or touchdowns without first earning a target. There’s a reason the biggest and most consistent […]


Video: Week 12 Must-Start Wide Receivers - 2024 Fantasy Football Streamers, Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Analysis

As we head into Week 12 we're dealing with multiple teams on byes. Be prepared to navigate those challenges by checking out our favorite 2024 fantasy football must-start wide receivers for Week 12! RotoBaller's Matt Donnelly discusses his top "Must Start" WRs that will have a fantasy football impact in Week 12, as well as […]


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL injury News

Steelers vs. Browns TNF Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, David Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, Russell Wilson, Najee Harris, George Pickens

The Week 12 TNF game between two bitter AFC North rivals (Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers) is not likely to end up like the Thursday night game from two weeks ago when two different AFC North teams (Bengals and Ravens) battled to a 35-34 shootout. Somewhere deep in the charter of the Pittsburgh Steelers, I […]