Tee Higgins (WR, CIN): 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Values

BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~48 Overall

CURRENT ADP: ~61

ANALYSIS: Since Joe Burrow came into the league in 2020, he’s averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game. That amounts to 619 pass attempts over 17 games. In his past two seasons, Burrow has averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game or 635 over 17 games. Okay, we are talking about a massive amount of passing volume.

In those past two seasons, in which Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have both missed time, Burrow is averaging 1.92 touchdowns per game or 33 scores over 17 games. He’s also averaging 261 yards per game, or 4,437 yards over 17 games.

We know Chase is an absolute stud. According to PlayerProfiler, he had a 26.3% target share in 2023 and 29.3% in 2022. Go ahead and give Chase a 28.5% target share on, let’s say, 625 pass attempts. With throwaways (give or take 25), he’d finish with around 170 targets on 600 targetable throws. For those of you playing along with a calculator, there are 430 targets left. Where are all those going?

Here's a training camp TD before you shut down the work computer for the day:

Joe Burrow to Tee Higgins. pic.twitter.com/0wgfcQQ7ge

— Joe Danneman (@FOX19Joe) August 12, 2024

The Bengals traded Joe Mixon this offseason, so their backfield consists of second-year player Chase Brown and four-year veteran Zack Moss. Moss has averaged 25 targets per season thus far. The running backs are unlikely to garner more than 75 or so targets. The talent just isn’t there. The tight ends are Mike Gesicki, Drew Sample, Tanner Hudson, and Erick All. Last season, Hudson, Sample, Irv Smith, and Mitchell Wilcox combined for 115 targets. Between the running backs and tight ends, let’s give them 200 combined. Feels fair, right? Well, we still have 230 targets left!

At receiver, the Bengals have Higgins, Jermaine Burton (third-round rookie), Andrei Iosivas (2023 sixth-rounder), and Trenton Irwin (sixth-year UDFA). It shouldn’t be surprising to see Higgins command 55% of those remaining targets, giving him roughly 127. That would equate to a target percentage just slightly higher than 20%. He was at 23.9% in 2021, 18.6% in 2022, and 17.9% last season in an injury-plagued year.

If we give him his career averages from his past three seasons playing with Burrow, Higgins would finish with 82 receptions, 1,197 yards, and eight touchdowns. In half-PPR, that would equal 208.7 total points and 12.27 half-PPR PPG. Last year that would have been the WR20. Higgins finished as the WR12 in 2021 with a 13.0 half-PPR PPG average and finished as the WR12 again in 2022 with a 13.2 half-PPR PPG.

That's amazing consistency from a receiver locked into the No. 2 role in one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league. Last year, he and Burrow dealt with injuries, which sent his half-PPR PPG average plummeting and because of that, fantasy managers have an absolute steal on their hands this season. Higgins is in a contract year and will want to have a big season so that he can cash in. Burrow is also playing with a chip on his shoulder after last year. Expect Higgins to bounce back in a big way and provide nice value at his current ADP.

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