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The NFL offseason keeps churning ahead and we are officially less than a month away from the NFL draft. When rookie fever is sweeping through the fantasy community, it becomes very easy to ignore solid veteran production in favor of shiny new toys. One player who is seemingly falling by the wayside is third-year player Tee Higgins.
Higgins is an easy player to disregard in fantasy circles for several reasons. For one, this rookie class boasts plenty of wide receiver talent, including five or six names that will likely be called in the first round. It is very easy to see big-play receivers like Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Jameson Williams, and Treylon Burks coming into the NFL after successful college careers and begin focusing on their potential. Secondly, Higgins has the added burden of being overshadowed by a better wide receiver on his team. Despite being a second-round pick in 2020, the Bengals used a top-5 pick to reunite Joe Burrow with his college teammate Ja’Marr Chase. All Chase did was justify the pick with a record-setting Rookie of the Year season.
That isn’t to say that Higgins isn’t still highly regarded. Many fantasy analysts still understand his value and have him ranked highly before the rookie class. This article isn't written for fantasy analysts though. As we get closer to the NFL draft and next season, Higgins feels like the kind of player who will gradually fall under the radar in leagues given his role in the offense and the emergence of new names in the fantasy community. This article will hopefully show why that could provide an opportunity for fantasy managers to buy a dependable talent with two years of experience in the NFL.
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Tee Higgins Dynasty Rank and 2021 Context
As we gear up for the 2022 season, Tee Higgins currently resides as the WR12 among wide receivers in dynasty football leagues according to FantasyPros.com combined rankings. It is hard to argue that standing considering the young talents (Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and A.J. Brown) and highly productive veterans (Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel) that currently are ahead of him on the list. While Higgins’ talent warrants such a lofty ranking, the presence of Ja’Marr Chase makes it difficult for some fantasy analysts to put Higgins as a top-12 option in dynasty leagues. For many, the question with Higgins comes down to this: can we rate a team’s second receiving option above other equally young and talented players who function as their team’s WR1?
There is no doubt that Ja’Marr Chase used his rookie season in Cincinnati to establish himself as the alpha wide receiver for Joe Burrow. Chase led the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns in his rookie season during a historic campaign that saw him secure Rookie of the Year honors on a Super Bowl team while finishing as a top-5 wide receiver in PPR scoring formats. Even more impressive is the fact that Chase did all of this despite skipping a year of college football to opt-out during a COVID shortened 2020 season. Despite all of that, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Tee Higgins in dynasty formats.
When you just look at Tee Higgins' 2021 fantasy finish, it is easy to be somewhat underwhelmed. Higgins finished as the WR24 in PPR scoring with 219.1 fantasy points, behind names like Michael Pittman Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Marquise Brown. Higgins also had just five games with double-digit targets in 2021 (including the playoffs).
However, it is important to note that Higgins secured that finish despite playing in just 14 of 17 games thanks to an early-season injury and a rest week during the final regular-season game. Despite just five games with double-digit targets, Higgins still had eight games with at least 95 receiving yards, including three straight games in the playoffs to close out the season. Among wide receivers with at least 12 games played, Higgins finished as the WR12 in fantasy points per game with 15.7 points per week.
Even more encouraging was the fact that Higgins' role in the offense grew from his first to his second season despite the presence of Ja’Marr Chase across from him. The second-year wide receiver saw an increase in targets (108 to 110), receptions (67 to 74), yards (908 to 1,091), and yards per target (8.4 to 9.9) despite playing two fewer games. Higgins also increased his catch rate from 62% as a rookie to 67.3% in his second year despite having more target competition in the offense.
It is also worth noting that the Bengals' offense threw the ball less in 2021 (555) than they did in 2020 (581) even with the addition of a regular-season game. Ultimately, Higgins was more productive for Cincinnati in his second season with fewer games played and fewer opportunities.
Tee Higgins 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook
On the surface, it seems that the Bengals attempted to have a more balanced offense in 2021 that was ultimately successful since Cincinnati made it to the Super Bowl. Common sense would tell us that the Bengals will look to repeat that formula to try and make it back to the big game. Cincinnati finished the 2020 season 20th in team pass attempts (including a Week 18 start by Brandon Allen). However, a deeper dive shows that the Bengals’ passing attack has room to grow.
From Weeks 1-12 in 2021 (11 games), Joe Burrow averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game. However, in their last nine games of the year (including the playoff run), Burrow averaged 35.8 attempts per game, which is a massive leap relative to NFL offenses. Cincinnati likely tried to protect Joe Burrow early in the year after he suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2020. Cincinnati’s offensive line was a weakness and was also trying to break in several new players. As the season progressed and Burrow showed confidence in his knee, they opened up the passing attack.
The Bengals will head into 2022 with a healthy Burrow and an offense that now has a feel for how to utilize both of their star-wide receivers. Additionally, they have made several key additions to bolster their offensive line, adding center Ted Karras, right guard Alex Cappa, and right tackle La’el Collins to the team. This should afford Burrow more time and protection in the pocket, which can only help Higgins and Chase make plays down the field.
Tee Higgins Dynasty Recommendation
Yes, indeed, the presence of Ja’Marr Chase will ultimately eat into Tee Higgins' ability to finish as a top-12 wide receiver in fantasy football. However, Higgins is just 23 years old (he won’t turn 24 until next January), finished as a top-12 WR in terms of fantasy points per game in 2020, and will be tied to Joe Burrow for at least the next two seasons. The Bengals have invested a lot into their team and will ultimately have to pay Joe Burrow in the next offseason or two, which will lead to hard salary cap choices that may ultimately force Tee Higgins into the free-agent market.
Higgins would function as the top wide receiver on numerous teams in the NFL and hasn’t even hit his athletic prime yet. While a top-12 ranking seems expensive for a team’s WR2, the third-year receiver is the rare case of talent that justifies a lofty ranking over other teams’ top receiving options.
Tee Higgins is a buy in dynasty formats, especially in leagues where fantasy managers are concerned about his ceiling thanks to Ja’Marr Chase’s record-setting rookie year. I’d be willing to offer a 2022 first-round pick (1.04 or later) and a young, solid wide receiver to try and pry him away from those teams.
There are plenty of young wide receivers in this class that have massive potential, but they will need plenty of luck and a good situation to produce what Higgins has already shown to be capable of in the NFL.
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