X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Tight End Zach Ertz, the Post-Hype Sleeper of 2015

2014 was a rough year for breakout tight ends.  Zach Ertz, Jordan Cameron, Charles Clay, Tyler Eifert, Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Kyle Rudolph, Dennis Pitta, Ladarius Green and more failed to reach their preseason expectations, whether it was due to poor play, injury, or a lack of talent around them. Ertz himself is an interesting case. Chip Kelly failed to give him the playing time that was required for him to become a high end TE1. However, he did have some big games regardless, and his value was directly correlated to his snap count.

 

Profile

Ertz is a huge target for any quarterback, listed at 6’5 and 250 pounds. That’s 2 inches taller than the average tight end and on par with the weight.  What sets him apart from the norm is his speed and athleticism.  He ran a 4.62 forty to go along with a 35 ½’ vertical leap (2nd among TE’s since 2013).  To say the least, Ertz can move for his massive frame. He came out of Stanford in 2013 as the 1A tight end prospect to Tyler Eifert.  While his blocking was (and still is) very suspect, his receiving skills were borderline unmatched at the position.  Once Coby Fleener left Stanford for the pros, Ertz became a complete matchup nightmare in college football. 

Editor’s Note: If you’re looking for a new, awesome, highly customizable and free option for year-round commissioner & dynasty leagues, something more capable than Yahoo, better looking than CBS, and built from the ground up with fantasy football in mind, play free fantasy football with our friends at Fleaflicker.

 

The Stats 

Ertz finished his only year as a starting college tight end with a line of 69-898-6, good for the most receiving yards as a tight end in Division I-A that year.  His rookie year with the Eagles, he finished with a promising line of 36-469-4, however a lot of his damage came against Arizona (5-68-2), who was historically bad against tight ends in 2013.  Ertz played only roughly 40% of his teams offensive snaps, and that number was expected to increase in 2014.

2014 started off strong, he had a 3-77-1 against the Jaguars (with a huge catch down the seam showing off his hops), and then 4-86 line against the Colts.  It went downhill for a while from there as he failed to top 50 yards for 7 straight weeks, and only did it three times after that.  He wasn’t receiving enough playing time once again, seeing just above 50% of the team's offensive snaps.  He finished with an underwhelming, but once again promising line of 58-702-3 for the year.

 

The Analysis

It’s quite clear that the primary reason that Ertz isn’t receiving playing time is his limited blocking ability.  It’s also quite clear that Chip Kelly prefers outside receivers that can handle their assignments, as evidence by the heavy usage of Jordan Matthews and Riley Cooper over Ertz and Huff consistently.  Brent Celek saw 75% of the team’s snaps, thanks in part due to his well above average run blocking (+4.3 per PFF).  Even though Celek wasn’t as much of a downfield weapon for the Eagles, his trench work was tremendous at times.  Ertz needs to improve dramatically as a blocker both on the line and downfield in order to gain more snaps.  Just look at this GIF (courtesy of r/eagles):

That's Zach Ertz running blindly ahead of McCoy.

There have been promising reports coming out of minicamp that the Eagles are impressed at Ertz’s improvement as a blocker, however the proof will come in training camp and preseason.  It’s something to keep an eye on for those looking to draft a tight end late.

When Ertz was used heavily, his stats showed that.  In the 5 games in which Ertz played at least 60% of the offensive snaps, he finished with a line of 30-377-1. This counts his massive game of 15-115 against the Redskins (I don’t want to consider this an anomaly because he was truly dominant all game).  Over a 16 game season, this totals to 96-1206-4.  While he certainly won’t reach those numbers, the potential is there for him to come close to 1000 yards if his snap count comes up to around 75% instead of 50%. a high probability.  He ranked 5th in yards per pass route run among tight ends, however his target totals were significantly lower than those that were ahead of him. Combine that with the 3rd highest catch percentage on deep balls (2nd in targets and receptions among tight ends), and it’s proof that Ertz is a strong downfield weapon when given the opportunity, which is huge for fantasy tight ends.

The Eagles are completely remade from last year.  Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy are gone, and DeMarco Murray and Nelson Agholor are in.  The loss of Maclin means good news for Ertz in both the red zone and in terms of targets, however the inclusion of Murray does damper that red zone promise slightly.  I expect a lot of Maclins targets to be balanced between Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor, while the run game numbers should also increase but Ertz should still be able to find a role as both an inline and move tight end.  Last year, Ertz played roughly half of his snaps in the slot, thanks in part to Jordan Matthews heavy usage in the same area.  His total number of 188 snaps in that position may see a slight tick, but the Eagles seem inclined to keep Matthews in a position where he had continued success.  The increase in usage for Ertz is going to have to be inline, either in 2 TE sets or at the expense of Brent Celek.  Both of these are strong possibilities to happen, but high risk in terms of fantasy, as there has been nothing to indicate Ertz is expected to receive a stronger role. 

Ertz was expected to light it up in the red zone throughout his career, but that just hasn’t happened yet. What’s interesting is he was actually 4th in the team in targets with 11 in the red zone, however he caught only 3 passes for 1 touchdown.  Brent Celek did have 9 targets, and caught 3 also for one touchdown.  Some numbers to specifically look at are Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper’s 26 total targets.  Cooper was absolutely abysmal this past year and should see a significant downtick in targets all over the field.  I expect DeMarco Murray to see a considerable amount of those looks as carries, but Ertz’s numbers should also increase, and increase significantly if he takes some of Celek’s targets.  That number could hover in the 18-20 target range next year, which could increase his TD total by 2-4 next year. Brent Celek has never been more than an above average red zone threat, so Ertz is likely to see an uptick in usage there.

 

The Verdict 

When given playing time, Ertz is a proven stud as a pass catcher.  If he’s able to win snaps by improving his blocking, it’s a near lock that he will become a top 10, if not top 5 fantasy tight end immediately due to it being such a weak position currently.  It’s a heavy gamble, but those that do their research during training camp and the preseason are the ones that will probably guess right on Ertz.  With the Eagles looking to becoming even more run heavy, Ertz needs to make a name for himself quickly.

If Ertz does look strong in the preseason as a blocker, I’d expect his line to hover in the 75-950-7 area, but if he continues to struggle, I see him finishing roughly 60-700-4.  Currently, I do expect Ertz to make the leap as reports have been promising out of camp.  I’d draft him as a TE1 with clear upside.  He’s currently going as the #7 TE in fantasy drafts, which is probably in line with where he should be right now.  There are players with a lot more risk just below him such as, Jordan Cameron, Owen Daniels and Josh Hill.  I would be more than confident with taking him in the 7th round, if not the late 6th, while also drafting someone like Tyler Eifert or Austin Seferian-Jenkins in the 12-15 rounds as potential insurance.

 

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Moises Ballesteros

Now The Triple-A Batting Average Leader
Yordan Alvarez

Exits Monday's Win Early
Raisel Iglesias

Notches Fifth Save Monday
JP Sears

Fans Seven In Monday's Win
Josh Hader

Earns Eighth Save Of Season Monday
Jose Altuve

Hits Two-Run Homer Monday
Los Angeles Chargers

Tre Harris Expected To Fill X Role For Chargers
Charlie Condon

Visiting A Hand Specialist On Monday
Bailey Ober

Extends Quality-Start Stretch To Four In Monday's Win
Los Angeles Chargers

Quentin Johnston Needs To Earn His Spot In Training Camp
Noelvi Marte

Stays Hot With RBI Triple Monday
Los Angeles Chargers

Hassan Haskins The Leader For No. 3 RB Job
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Plan For 1-2 Punch At RB With Omarion Hampton, Najee Harris
Zebby Matthews

Strikes Out Five In Latest Start At Triple-A
New England Patriots

Patriots View TreVeyon Henderson As A Three-Down Back
Cleveland Browns

Browns View Quinshon Judkins As A Potential Bell-Cow Back
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Plan To Develop Jalen Milroe As A QB
Bubba Chandler

Tosses Five Shutout Innings In Latest Start
Jordan Lawlar

Surging At Triple-A
Tennessee Titans

Titans Unlikely To Pick Up Treylon Burks' Fifth-Year Option
Cleveland Browns

Browns Apply Unrestricted Free-Agent Tender To Elijah Moore
Cleveland Browns

Browns Agree To One-Year Deal With Diontae Johnson
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Could Reunite With Amari Cooper
Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Sign Robert Woods To One-Year Deal
Nick Maton

Outrighted To Triple-A
Josh Rojas

To Begin Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
Tyler Gilbert

To Serve As Opener On Tuesday
Ryan Weathers

Tosses Three Shutout Innings In First Rehab Start
Keider Montero

Sent Back To Minors
Steven Matz

To Start On Wednesday Against Reds
Kris Bryant

To Have "Follow-Up Scans"
Gary Sánchez

Orioles Place Gary Sanchez On Injured List
Tomoyuki Sugano

Records Career-High Eight Strikeouts
Jimmy Butler III

Officially Active For Game 4
Isaiah Stewart

Uncertain For Game 5
Michael Porter Jr.

Expected To Play In Game 5
Russell Westbrook

Questionable For Tuesday Night
Jaylen Brown

Back On The Injury Report
Jrue Holiday

Out Again On Tuesday Night
Bennedict Mathurin

Questionable For Game 5
Damian Lillard

May Not Play Next Season
Johnathan Kovacevic

To Remain Out Tuesday
Brenden Dillon

Unavailable Tuesday
Luke Hughes

Not Ready To Return For Game 5
Darius Garland

Remains Out On Monday
Ross Colton

Remains Out On Monday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back Returns To Stars Lineup Monday
Miro Heiskanen

To Miss Game 5
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go For Game 4
Cleveland Browns

Browns Decline Kenny Pickett's Fifth-Year Option
New York Giants

Giants Won't Pick Up Evan Neal's Fifth-Year Option
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Ikem Ekwonu
Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert Could Remain An Eagle
Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Could Still Add Wide Receiver Help Prior To 2025 Season
Cleveland Browns

Shedeur Sanders Struggled During Pre-Draft Process
Buffalo Bills

Elijah Moore Visiting With Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars

Emmanuel Ogbah Signs With Jaguars
New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr Undergoes MRI Exam
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Ivan Demidov

Has Historic Outing In Game 4
Timo Meier

Records Two Points Sunday
Andrei Svechnikov

Nets Hat Trick In Game 4 Win
Leon Draisaitl

Caps Off Four-Point Effort With First Postseason Overtime Goal
Connor Hellebuyck

Gets Pulled Again
Alexandre Carrier

Fails To Finish Game 4
Tyler Tucker

Makes Early Exit Sunday
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Frederik Andersen

Exits Game 4 With Injury
Jake Neighbours

Shines On Sunday With Three Points
Jordan Binnington

Makes 30 Saves In Game 4 Victory
Patrik Laine

Not Expected To Play In Game 4
Sam Montembeault

Labeled Day-To-Day
Aliaksei Protas

Considered A Game-Time Decision Sunday
Logan Thompson

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF