Wide Receiver Target Regression Candidates for Fantasy Football

In the NFL and fantasy football, things can change as easily as the snap of a finger from campaign to campaign. One season, somebody breaks a record, and the next, they are fighting for targets and struggling to produce.

Based on the game script, chemistry, and availability of weapons, targets can fluctuate for pass-catchers. In a position like WR, targets could be hard to come by at all depending on which team you are on and the competition and pecking order at the position. Just a few tight ends are real threats to get big chunks of the WRs' pie in terms of targets, but offenses packed full of wide playmakers can make it tough even for the best of those to play at the position.

Heading into 2022, there are quite a few WRs who should be due for a target regression. Let’s look at some candidates who are due for fewer targets come next season.

Wide Receivers To See Less Targets?

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders

Renfrow truly caught lighting in a bottle last season. I'm not saying Renfrow is a bad player (far from it!) but the truth is that he benefited from TE Darren Waller missing six games entirely and clearly underperforming in those in which he was available--not to mention Henry Ruggs III performing levels and the half-season-plus of games missed. Renfrow also had a phenomenal, career year from QB Derek Carr that surely boosted the receiver numbers.

Next season (we hope), Carr will probably stay on his recent level (it's been two years as a top-14 QB improving from three as a top-20 straight prior to that) but Renfrow will face tough-as-hell competition when it comes to demanding and getting Carr's attention. If you live under a rock: league-wide WR1 Davante Adams is now a Las Vegas Raider and he comes with an average bill of 126 career targets per season and an even higher average of 153 in his four last seasons alone. There will be just a lot of plates on Carr's table to feed all owners properly. And among the top-three pass catchers in the Raiders for 2022, I'd bet Renfrow is the one suffering the largest hit.

Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots

Meyers was entering his third season as a pro last summer without having scored a single touchdown for the Patriots, not having more than 81 targets and 59 receptions ever before, and not even reaching 730 receiving yards on. Of course, things had to go right once for all this past season for Jakobi. Meyers played to Mac Jones' strengths and posted career highs all across the board. He got 126 targets (55% increase compared to his prior best), 83 receptions (40% increase), and 866 yards (19% increase) while scoring his first two career touchdowns. Not bad, all things considered.

Of course, it's going to be tough for Meyers to keep up that volume considering his meh numbers in actual production and the competition he will be facing. DeVante Parker got to New England and he should command legit WR1 opportunities and targets. There is no reason for Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith not to get at least 150+ targets between the two of them next year. And both Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor were much better/safer options when it came to scoring touchdowns and racking up yards. Not seeing it happening in back-to-back years for Meyers, sadly.

Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals

The Ravens decided to move on from WR Marquise Brown just three years after drafting him. Uhmmmm... Lamar Jackson didn't like the move, and to be honest, Brown himself shouldn't love him that much either. Brown has raised his target count on a yearly basis, going from 71 to 100 and finally 145 last year. He's also made so in terms of receptions (from 46 to 58 to 91) and yardage (584 to 769 to 1,008). That evolution is phenomenal and something to really believe in Brown as a perennial top-24 receiver going forward. Or is it?

Brown is joining a packed Cards offense in which the quarterback is not that different from Lamar (in the sense of rushing the rock fairly often) and he will definitely have at least as strong a set of competitors as he had in Baltimore (not hard, all thing considered). Brown might still retain the WR1 role but that'd depend on DeAndre Hopkins' availability, while Rondale Moore and A.J. Green will be around getting targeted too. Adding wood to the fire: TE Zach Ertz is a legit option on offense with enough experience and past production to demand targets, and Arizona just drafted the best TE in the 2022 class (Trey McBride) to throw another big body onto the field. Brown's numbers will suffer whether he likes it or not, and it's just outside of his control.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

Kupp is the most obvious pick to add to a column like this one. I mean, that 2021 season Coop put together is just a ridiculous outlier in the history of the game. On a personal basis, he obviously topped all of his prior-best numbers with 191 targets (from 134), 145 receptions (94), 1,947 yards (1,161), and 16 TD (10). That's ridiculous enough to consider him dropping the bar a bit, but when you look at historical data, things get even more stupid.

Eight players (including Cooper) have gotten more than 190 targets in a single season (one in 2002, three in 2012, and three more in 2015). Only one of them not named Kupp caught more than 136 passes. The Rams are moving on from Robert Woods (who missed eight games opening the door for Kupp to get more targets) and adding Allen Robinson (maybe not the healthiest man on Earth right now but surely one to command at least Wood's 69 targets). Of course, because that's how fantasy football works, Kupp will be the WR1 off the board this summer. Just don't buy it.

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