X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Target Avoided - Who To Avoid In Each Round of your Fantasy Football Draft

Jack analyzes players who he is avoiding at their current ADP for 2016 Fantasy Football drafts.

With only a month or two left until your fantasy draft, it’s about time you started getting your big board ready. Here’s a list of players who represent bad value at their ADP, broken down round by round. Note that most of these players are not necessarily bad fantasy options, but just rather overvalued relative to players picked around them.

ADP Data is provided by Fantasy Football Calculator as of 07/22/2016

Editor's Note: RotoBaller has the best Premium NFL Subscription for only $1.99 per week. We have all the preseason tools to help win your drafts, and in-season tools to win your seasonal and daily leagues: Draft Kit, Premium Rankings, ADP Sleepers Tool, Matchup Ratings for every player, Daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids. 

 

Consider Avoiding Drafting Players With High ADPs

1st Round: Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys Running Back

The problem with Ezekiel Elliott really isn’t a problem with anything we know. In this case, it’s really all about what we don’t know. Elliott hasn’t played a single down in the NFL, and he’s already being drafted as a top 10 player. There are unquestionably much safer picks in the 1st round, and you, as a responsible fantasy player, should pick one of them, such as Adrian Peterson or Lamar Miller.

2nd Round: Mike Evans, Buccaneers Wide Receiver

Mike Evans isn’t a bad receiver, or even a bad fantasy player. Unfortunately, his 2nd round price tag is just too high to justify picking him over other 2nd round receivers. Consider picking Allen Robinson if you can, or Keenan Allen if you’re in a PPR league. Even if WRs are going fast, Brandon Marshall should put up more consistent points this year than Evans, who struggled with drop problems in 2015 and he  has yet to make the jump into an elite-tier fantasy option.

3rd Round: Brandin Cooks, Saints Wide Receiver

At his current ADP, which reaches as high as the end of the 2nd round in PPR drafts, Brandin Cooks is undoubtedly the most overvalued player in 2016 fantasy drafts. His value is based almost entirely on an assumption that he will make the immediate jump into WR1 territory this year, but this is almost entirely unfounded - despite putting up decent stats in his second season in the NFL, Cooks owners will remember that his fantasy performance was still underwhelming at best. Compare this to similar value receivers going as late as the 5th and 6th round, and Cooks may be the least valuable player in the first three rounds, hands down.

4th Round: Carlos Hyde, 49ers Running Back / Jordan Reed, Redskins Tight End

The 4th round is filled with solid options, especially at running back. Carlos Hyde may have the starting job in San Francisco, but Chip Kelly’s Wild Ride may have something else in store for Hyde. DeMarco Murray is going after Hyde, and represents more talent and similar positional value.

Jordan Reed performed like a 4th round TE last year - when he was healthy. Unfortunately, his playing style results in a myriad of injuries that never seem to go away. Reed is probably one concussion away from never seeing the field again. Match that with an expected regression to the mean in 2016, and Reed is overvalued in the 4th round of 2016 fantasy drafts.

5th Round: Russell Wilson, Seahawks Quarterback

Drafting a QB early is almost always a bad move. Top fantasy QBs outside the #1 or #2 overall shift wildly from year to year, and expecting Wilson to match his production from the 2nd half of 2015 is optimistic at best. Wilson should be a serviceable, and possibly even top 5 fantasy QB, but another top 5 fantasy QB like Blake Bortles can be had over 2 rounds cheaper.

6th Round: Melvin Gordon, Chargers Running Back

Put simply, Melvin Gordon played terribly in 2015. He is currently being drafted as the 28th overall RB in standard, despite finishing 53rd overall and near 70th in points per game. Arguably, drafting Gordon in the 6th would be a worse choice than drafting Brandin Cooks in the 2nd. Gordon needs to make an unbelievable jump in 2016 just to be fantasy relevant, and I doubt the Chargers have much trust in his ability to do so. Gordon has little value in any round of the draft before the 10th. Expect his teammate, Danny Woodhead, to do much of the best work in the San Diego backfield.

7th Round: Kevin White, Bears Wide Receiver 

Kevin White still hasn’t played a snap in the NFL. He was in a great position to succeed in 2015, but with a full year off and nothing tangible to show for it, White is overvalued in the 7th round. If you’d like to take a chance on a young receiver, try Tyler Lockett at a similar price, or even potentially go for a stable pick and reach for Michael Crabtree.

8th Round: Karlos Williams, Bills Running Back

Karlos Williams is the clear #2 RB on the Bills. Unfortunately for those that draft him, he will sit out the first 4 games of the season. It's entirely likely you'll see him sitting on your waivers come Week 3 or 4, which would be a better time to pick him up if you see handcuff value in him.

9th Round: Denver Defense

There’s no doubt that the Denver Defense should repeat as the real deal this year in 2016. Unfortunately for those who draft Denver, an equally enticing AFC West team D/ST can be found in the 11th round, without any real sacrifice in value. Kansas City finished within one point of Denver, and they should come close to doing so again this year. Denver D/ST will score you points, but it’s silly to draft a defense this early in any season.

10th Round: Kenneth Dixon, Ravens Running Back

The only thing currently known about the RB situation in Baltimore is that Justin Forsett should be the starter. Even in the case of an running back by committee, the backup RBs in Baltimore provide little fantasy value outside of an injury to Forsett. Though he was injured last year, Forsett is not necessarily injury prone, and is currently the only RB in Baltimore worth rostering, in my opinion.

11th Round: Josh Gordon, Browns Wide Reciever

At some point, telling you not to draft players that won’t see the field this year is silly. However, Josh Gordon is still on the league suspension list with a bleak chance of being reinstated before week 1 of the 2016 season, so he is not worth a draft pick or a roster spot. Don't draft him in the 11th, or any later round - take someone who has a better chance at putting up fantasy points instead.

12th Round: Darren McFadden, Cowboys Running Back

Though McFadden had somewhat of a comeback year in 2015, he was quickly shut down by Dallas when they signed Alfred Morris and drafted Ezekiel Elliott. There is little to no chance McFadden sees the field next year in any fantasy relevant manner, and he should be avoided even for players that gain value in the case of an injury, like James Starks or Devontae Booker.

13th Round: Martavis Bryant, Steelers Wide Receiver

Martavis Bryant will not see the field in 2016. Like Josh Gordon, do not draft players whose chances of seeing an NFL field are about as good as finding the winning lottery tickets on the ground at 7-11.

14th Round: Spencer Ware, Chiefs Running Back

There are a lot of terrible picks you could make in the 14th round. Spencer Ware is not a terrible pick per se, but he has little chance of seeing the field this year. Though few 14th round picks will go anywhere, consider picking a player that has value after an injury, like Ted Ginn Jr, or a player with potential flex value, like Kendall Wright.

15th Round: Adam Vinatieri, Colts Kicker

Adam Vinatieri is the oldest active player in the NFL. Though kickers tend to age well, there are better options, even in the 15th round. Pick someone who is consistent and younger, like Blair Walsh or Josh Brown.

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 


Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

New England Patriots

Patriots View TreVeyon Henderson As A Three-Down Back
Cleveland Browns

Browns View Quinshon Judkins As A Potential Bell-Cow Back
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Plan To Develop Jalen Milroe As A QB
Bubba Chandler

Tosses Five Shutout Innings In Latest Start
Jordan Lawlar

Surging At Triple-A
Tennessee Titans

Titans Unlikely To Pick Up Treylon Burks' Fifth-Year Option
Cleveland Browns

Browns Apply Unrestricted Free-Agent Tender To Elijah Moore
Cleveland Browns

Browns Agree To One-Year Deal With Diontae Johnson
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Could Reunite With Amari Cooper
Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Sign Robert Woods To One-Year Deal
Nick Maton

Outrighted To Triple-A
Josh Rojas

To Begin Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
Tyler Gilbert

To Serve As Opener On Tuesday
Ryan Weathers

Tosses Three Shutout Innings In First Rehab Start
Keider Montero

Sent Back To Minors
Steven Matz

To Start On Wednesday Against Reds
Kris Bryant

To Have "Follow-Up Scans"
Gary Sánchez

Orioles Place Gary Sanchez On Injured List
Tomoyuki Sugano

Records Career-High Eight Strikeouts
Andrew Kittredge

To Throw Live Bullpen On Wednesday
Emilio Pagán

Emilio Pagan Records Eighth Save
Tyler Wells

To Throw A Bullpen On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Officially Active For Game 4
Nick Martinez

Looks Impressive On Monday
Kyle Bradish

Throws Another Bullpen On Monday
Grayson Rodriguez

Hasn't Started Throwing
Mark Vientos

Smacks Three-Run Homer
Isaiah Stewart

Uncertain For Game 5
Colton Cowser

Not Cleared For Baseball Activities
Griffin Canning

Tosses Five Scoreless Innings
Zach Eflin

To Throw Another Bullpen On Tuesday
Michael Porter Jr.

Expected To Play In Game 5
Russell Westbrook

Questionable For Tuesday Night
Jaylen Brown

Back On The Injury Report
Jrue Holiday

Out Again On Tuesday Night
Bennedict Mathurin

Questionable For Game 5
Damian Lillard

May Not Play Next Season
Johnathan Kovacevic

To Remain Out Tuesday
Brenden Dillon

Unavailable Tuesday
Luke Hughes

Not Ready To Return For Game 5
Darius Garland

Remains Out On Monday
Ross Colton

Remains Out On Monday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back Returns To Stars Lineup Monday
Miro Heiskanen

To Miss Game 5
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go For Game 4
Cleveland Browns

Browns Decline Kenny Pickett's Fifth-Year Option
New York Giants

Giants Won't Pick Up Evan Neal's Fifth-Year Option
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Ikem Ekwonu
Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert Could Remain An Eagle
Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Could Still Add Wide Receiver Help Prior To 2025 Season
Cleveland Browns

Shedeur Sanders Struggled During Pre-Draft Process
Buffalo Bills

Elijah Moore Visiting With Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars

Emmanuel Ogbah Signs With Jaguars
New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr Undergoes MRI Exam
Carolina Panthers

Hunter Renfrow Signs With Panthers
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Ivan Demidov

Has Historic Outing In Game 4
Timo Meier

Records Two Points Sunday
Andrei Svechnikov

Nets Hat Trick In Game 4 Win
Leon Draisaitl

Caps Off Four-Point Effort With First Postseason Overtime Goal
Connor Hellebuyck

Gets Pulled Again
Alexandre Carrier

Fails To Finish Game 4
Tyler Tucker

Makes Early Exit Sunday
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Frederik Andersen

Exits Game 4 With Injury
Jake Neighbours

Shines On Sunday With Three Points
Jordan Binnington

Makes 30 Saves In Game 4 Victory
Patrik Laine

Not Expected To Play In Game 4
Sam Montembeault

Labeled Day-To-Day
Aliaksei Protas

Considered A Game-Time Decision Sunday
Logan Thompson

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Adds Insurance With Max Brosmer
New York Jets

Donovan Edwards Inks Deal With Jets
Atlanta Falcons

Nick Nash Signs With The Falcons
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF