RADIO
Welcome back to Tape Tells All, the weekly series where I look at film and data for something that happened in the NFL this week.
Today, I want to look at a player who just went absolutely ballistic in Week 2, leading his team to a huge comeback victory: it's Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa!
In Week 2, Tagovailoa was 36-for-50 for 469 yards and six touchdowns. He also threw a couple of picks. Was this the breakout game that we were all waiting for with Tua, or was it just a mirage?
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Background Information
This is Tua Tagovailoa's third NFL season. After suffering a devastating hip injury to end his college career at Alabama, Tua saw his draft stock clip in 2020, falling from being the expected No. 1 pick down to No. 5. Still, the No. 5 pick comes with a ton of expectations, and Tua's first two seasons didn't really show that he was living up to those standards.
Over his first two years, Tagovailoa completed 66.2% of his passes, but it took him 21 starts (and two appearances from the bench) to get to 4,467 yards. To put that into perspective, seven quarterbacks threw more yards than that just last season. Looking just at 2021, Tua ranked 29th among all quarterbacks in passing yards per game.
But the Dolphins wanted to give Tua a fair shot, so they traded for Tyreek Hill this offseason, pairing him with Jaylen Waddle to create one of the best one-two punches at wide receiver in the NFL. If Tua was going to work in this league, the Dolphins were creating the ideal situation.
In Week 1, Tua threw for 270 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Patriots. Maybe you'd like there to be another touchdown on the stat sheet for fantasy purposes, but it was still a good start to the season. Last year, Tua started 12 games and threw for over 270 yards just three times.
And then came the Ravens game.
Tagovailoa completed 72% of his passes in the game, with 469 yards and six touchdowns. He did throw a couple of picks, but it was still a big showing from the former Crimson Tide lefty.
Let's try to figure out what it means.
The Tua Tagovailoa Game Tape
Let's break down some of what Tua Tagovailoa did on Sunday, with some film and also some numbers.
A lot is going to be made of how Tua's receivers helped him out on Sunday, and that's true: having Hill and Waddle is really important.
Like on the play above, where Tyreek Hill gets past the entire Ravens defense using his speed. Look how open he winds up being on this play:
So, yeah...Hill helps his quarterback out here, but let's not discount how good Tua's throw is. There are plenty of quarterbacks who would over or under throw Hill on this deep route. But Tua unfurls a perfectly thrown ball that lands right in Hill's lap for the easy touchdown.
Below is a clip with all six of Tua's touchdown passes. I'm just going to give y'all some quick thoughts on each one, because six is a lot to talk about fully.
- The first touchdown comes on a play-action screen pass to Jaylen Waddle. It's smart to get Waddle the ball in that way and is something I expect we see more in the future.
- On the second touchdown, Tua hits Mike Gesicki in the back of the end zone. It almost looks like this is going to be a throwaway, but Tua uses his arm strength and accuracy to position the ball where only his man can get it. Throwing into the end zone in a way that doesn't put the ball in danger is a skill.
- I'll touch on this below, but Tua really isn't running this year. On this play though, he uses his feet to extend things, allowing River Cracraft to get open for the two-yard score. Good job by Tua to keep this play alive and wait for something to develop.
- This is the first one of his deep bombs to Hill. I think over the last two years, we didn't get to see enough of Tua's arm strength—per PlayerProfiler, Tua ranked 30th last season in both air yards and deep ball attempts, and 31st in air yards per attempt. But this season, he's currently seventh in air yards, though just 21st in air yards per attempt. Still, the deep ball is part of his arsenal now, and he ranks third in deep ball completion percentage. We're finally getting to see what his arm can do.
- This is the one I already talked about above.
- Tua's sixth touchdown was another where he shows some good awareness of where the defenders are and scoots around the pocket a little, buying time for Jaylen Waddle to get into a one-on-one spot with a defender. Tua then rifles this one into Waddle.
The biggest commonality with the touchdown throws: they're accurate. Whether it be via a short route or a deep ball, Tua's passes are hitting the receiver in the right spot.
Not that we should be surprised by that. Last year, he was third in accuracy rating, ninth in true completion percentage and first in deep ball completion percentage, but because he wasn't throwing deep that much, we didn't really get to see this unlocked version of Tua.
So, that's the good stuff for Tua. He's always been an accurate passer, and now this new coaching staff is letting him show it.
But we also need to counter with one issue through two games: Tua's lack of rushing upside.
Running isn't a big part of Tua's game, but he did have 42 carries in 13 games last year, with three rushing touchdowns. This year, he was three carries total for one yard.
In his first two seasons, Tua added around a point per game to his fantasy score via rushing, and there were the occasional touchdowns. That one point might not seem huge—and the increased passing might more than make up for it—but it just seems like a thing worth noting.
Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Football Impact
So, how did Week 2 change the way I view Tua in fantasy?
I'm obviously higher on him. I'm not sure how you can't be higher on him after seeing him lead a huge comeback and throw for 469 yards.
But I also know to not get too high on Tua, because the Dolphins won't be down three scores that often. We won't need a frenzied comeback attempt every week. He won't get lucky to connect on multiple deep touchdowns to Hill. A lot of the actual results from Sunday are replicable.
Still, the Dolphins have established that they're going to throw more under Mike McDaniel. And Hill and Waddle bring so much versatility: you can get them involved in the deep game, but you can also hit them on screens and slants and just let them do work with their legs.
I would consider Tua to be a high-end QB2 at this point, but I wouldn't blame you at all for starting him over some of the guys who are commonly ranked above him like Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers. Tua has a pretty high ceiling because of the offense around him.
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