RADIO
So are those of us who deemed Boston Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck as a sleeper to target this draft season taking our victory laps yet? If so, we certainly shouldn’t be. He hasn’t become the savior of the Red Sox rotation we were hoping for. Instead, he’s helped save the Red Sox in a different way – a more literal one.
It’s been a rollercoaster year so far for Houck and for anyone following him closely. He became a must-drop player in most leagues after he was booted from the Red Sox rotation, but now he’s become a must-roster and must-start player in just about all leagues.
In today’s article, we’ll look over how Houck wound up as the team’s preferred ninth-inning arm, review his success thus far, and assess his value for the rest of the season.
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The Background
Houck began the season in the Red Sox’s starting rotation, but he lasted just three starts before the team transitioned him into what was primarily a long relief role. He actually performed decently well over his first three starts of the year, pitching to a 3.21 ERA alongside a 3.28 FIP. However, he gave up seven walks over the three starts and also hit a batter.
Additionally, he continued with a trend that had plagued him dating back to last year – his struggles against batters the second time around the order. Here’s a look at his career-long splits when facing batters for the first, second, and third time in a single game:
During his first time through an order as a starting pitcher, he’s held batters to a .186 batting average and .504 OPS. The second time through, those numbers have inflated to a .240 batting average and .647 OPS. And in the rare occasions where he’s faced batters a third time, he’s been absolutely shelled to the tune of a .292 batting average and a 1.017 OPS.
While he only faced batters a third time through the lineup as a starter three times this year, you can see that his results against hitters the second time through the lineup as a starter had been even worse this year than they were in 2020 and 2021. Here’s a look at his splits from 2022. Particularly note the .333 batting average and .774 OPS he yielded in his second turn against hitters.
Houck turns 26-years-old at the end of this month and could certainly still bolster his pitching arsenal in a way that will allow him to be more effective deeper into starts. But for now, he most definitely looks like a pitcher who is best utilized out of the pen, where hitters won’t get as much time to settle in against him.
Red Sox Bullpen Woes
While Houck was in the midst of his transition from a starting role to a middle relief/long relief role, the Red Sox bullpen was in the midst of completely imploding.
The primary candidates for the team’s closing duties early this year were Matt Barnes, Hansel Robles, and Jake Diekman.
Barnes saved 24 games for the team last year, but he’s just 2-for-3 in save opportunities this year. More importantly, he’s been shelled to the tune of a 7.94 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP. He’s been dealing with mechanical issues and he’s currently on the injured list with a shoulder injury.
Robles leads the team in save opportunities with six, but he’s managed to convert just two of them while pitching to a 4.71 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP with a 1.8 K/BB ratio. He hasn’t successfully converted a save since May 16 and has blown two save chances since then.
Diekman has been plagued by control issues, allowing 6.9 BB/9 to go along with a 1.46 WHIP. He’s managed to convert just one of his four save opportunities.
The team has also seen three other relievers earn multiple save opportunities this year: Matt Strahm, Ryan Brasier, and John Schreiber.
Straham and Schreiber have been two of the team’s most effective relievers this year and they are also the only two Red Sox pitchers not named Tanner Houck who have earned saves this month. But over the course of Houck’s ninth-inning success, both Strahm and Schreiber have been mostly utilized in setup roles. They have racked up four holds and seven holds, respectively, this month while going a combined 3-for-4 in save chances.
Reliever Rejuvenation
Houck earned his first save opportunity on June 10 against the Seattle Mariners and he was able to convert it. Including that game, he is a perfect 5-for-5 on save opportunities this year.
Across the month of June as a whole, he has pitched 8.2 innings and allowed nine hits, one walk, and one earned run while striking out 12. Here’s a quick look at how he has improved upon both his walk rate and strikeout rate in June with his move to the closing role.
A deeper look under the hood shows how Houck has been able to increase the effectiveness of his primary pitches by throwing fewer of them per game. Here is his pitch breakdown by month:
In April, his slider was generating a whiff rate of just 25%. While he was in the midst of his transition in May, the whiff rate on the pitch increased to 38.6%. So far this month, as he’s been primarily used in increments of one inning or less, he’s generated a 51.5% whiff rate on the pitch.
Meanwhile, he’s increased the average velocity on his four-seam fastball from 95.1 mph in April to 95.5 mph in June. Batters have an xSLG of just .354 against the pitch this month, down drastically from .622 in April.
Rest of Season Value
Ranking closers in fantasy baseball is a tricky art form that requires day-to-day attention. One or two bad outings from a reliever can result in a complete shakeup of the rankings.
I’m not telling you anything you don’t know here. I’m merely stating the obvious because I believe the obvious will come to my defense here as I stake a rather bold claim. It helps give me the semblance of a safety net in case Houck implodes over his next few save chances.
The claim: Tanner Houck is a top-15 closer for the rest of the season.
The fact that he’s pitching extremely well right now is one of the driving forces of this claim, but it’s his current situation that really helps me feel confident about the claim (or as confident as one can be while ranking closers).
The Red Sox are sitting at 39-31 and look to be primed for another season of well above-.500 ball. Frankly, their record would likely look quite a bit better by now if they’d discovered the closing abilities of Houck earlier and didn’t blow so many games due to bullpen blunders. With Houck being on such a formidable team, he’s likely to see far more save chances than the likes of Detroit’s Gregory Soto, Pittsburgh’s David Bednar, or Chicago’s David Robertson – assuming he can maintain that ninth-inning role of course.
Additionally, the lack of competition for the ninth inning in Boston makes Houck even more alluring. Straham and Schreiber are the only potential threats right now, but the job is clearly Houck’s to lose for now. He doesn’t have to deal with any of the timeshare woes we’re seeing in St. Louis with Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos or that we’re about to be seeing in The Bronx with Clay Holmes and Aroldis Chapman.
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