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Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Through this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.
Tampa Bay lost its offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, when he agreed to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. However, the rest of the offense remains mostly the same. Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin all return for 2024 and will again be the catalysts on offense. These four players will be the focal point of the game plan every week, and that consolidation makes it a fantasy-friendly offense for managers to target.
There are so many places fantasy managers can find ADP rankings, all of which differ to some extent. I used the ADP from FantasyPros, which can be found here. If you want to invest in your fantasy football leagues, consider subscribing to our premium account. Our premium tools can help you dominate your fantasy leagues. If you'd like to purchase our premium tools at RotoBaller, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount.
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Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook
Baker Mayfield: QB22, ADP 130
Mayfield had a resurgent season last year in Tampa Bay. After being mostly written off after poor seasons in 2021 and 2022, Mayfield bounced back hugely. He was elected to his first Pro Bowl after his best professional season. He finished with 4,044 passing yards, his first time eclipsing the 4,000 mark, and set career highs in completion percentage and touchdowns.
Mayfield had the best collection of pass-catchers he’s had in his career, along with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, as well as an offensive coordinator who had helped revitalize Geno Smith's career in his previous stop in Seattle. The loss of Dave Canales is a big one. He’s since been replaced by Liam Coen, who spent some time under Sean McVay while Mayfield was with the Rams.
Turnovers have long been an issue for Mayfield. From 2018-2022, his interception rate was over 2.4% in four out of five seasons and one was 2.8%. What does that look like? Last year, he threw 566 passes and had 10 interceptions with a 1.8% rate. 2.8% would’ve resulted in 16 interceptions. Cutting the interceptions down was a huge part of his bounce-back season.
However, Mike Evans may have been the biggest factor in Mayfield’s resurgent season. Mayfield has always been a bit of a YOLO player, but he’s never had a receiver that jived with that play style. He did last season. Mayfield led the league in deep- ball attempts, had the third-most air yards, and the fifth-highest air yards per attempt average. He wasn’t very successful in such endeavors, completing 29.1% of his deep-ball attempts and ranking 31st, but the sheer volume paid dividends in fantasy football and on the field.
Mayfield finished as the QB19 with a 17.5 PPG, and his expected PPG average of 17.7 landed at QB18. He comes into the season at QB22, but considering the addition of Aaron Rodgers (back from injury) and rookies Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, his current ADP is a fair price.
Verdict: Fair Price on Baker Mayfield
Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook
Rachaad White: RB12, ADP 42
Bucky Irving: RB55, ADP 169
Last season, White finished as the RB9 in half-PPR with a 14.3 PPG average. He also finished ninth in expected half-PPR PPG with a 14.3 average. While much has been made about his rushing inefficiency, White wasn’t wildly unproductive regarding the touches he got. White made the most of his high-value touches and was incredibly efficient with those, which is the most important thing for fantasy football.
White received 11 carries inside the 5-yard line, tied for 16th among running backs. He scored on six of them, a 54.5% success rate. Christian McCaffrey scored on nine of his 18 attempts, a 50% success rate. Derrick Henry scored on seven of his 15 attempts, a 46.6% success rate. He also had a strong share of the red-zone work last season. He received 95% of all Tampa Bay running back carries inside the 10-yard line and 89% of the running back carries inside the 5-yard line. White was productive on the ground when it mattered most and very efficient in the passing game.
White finished with 66 targets (seventh most among running backs), 60 receptions (fourth most), 531 yards (third most), and three touchdowns (tied for seventh). Despite having the seventh-most targets, he still had the fourth-most receptions. Despite having the fourth-most receptions, he still had the third-most yards. His 90.9% catch rate was the second highest of any running back with at least 35 targets. He also ranked fourth in yards per target, fifth in yards per reception, and third in yards after the catch per reception.
Rachaad White propaganda pic.twitter.com/P4Hfyxbsyg
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 7, 2024
Now, some will likely point to White’s ineffectiveness on the ground. Among 49 running backs with at least 100 carries, he finished 40th in yards per carry, 42nd in rushing success rate, 44th in yards after contact per carry, 47th in breakaway run rate, and 42nd in attempts per broken tackle. None of those numbers are good, but if the team wanted to change the workload from last season, would its only offseason addition be a 190-pound back at the bottom of Round 4? Conventional wisdom says no.
If Tampa Bay were that concerned with White’s rushing inefficiency, it would have drafted someone like Trey Benson or MarShawn Lloyd. Maybe it would’ve signed Zack Moss or Gus Edwards. There were cheap early-down grinders available, and Tampa Bay bypassed all of those options and elected to add only a 190-pound rookie at the bottom of Round 4. That tells me fantasy managers should have no questions about the kind of role White will have this season. It’ll be the same one he had last season.
Bucky Irving does many of the same things well that White does, which is not good for his standalone fantasy value. For a team that is very serious about competing for a playoff spot, it will go with the experienced player who got it done last season. However, Irving's skill set overlaps with White's, which is great for his handcuff value.
If White were to get hurt, I wouldn’t expect a 190-pound rookie to handle 272 carries like White did last season, but he could handle all of his receiving work. If he were to get even just half of the ground-game usage White saw, he’d be a very solid RB2. Fantasy managers would be wise to value Irving strictly as a handcuff. If they start overdrafting him, thinking he might take work away from White because of his rushing inefficiency, they will likely end up disappointed in their selection of Irving, so long as White stays healthy.
Verdict: Buy Rachaad White and Fair Price on Bucky Irving
Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook
Mike Evans: WR18, ADP 29
Chris Godwin: WR33, ADP 63
Jalen McMillan: WR101, ADP 253
Trey Palmer: WR105, ADP 315
We’re going to start off with Chris Godwin here. Last year, 14 receivers had at least 120 targets, 15 red-zone targets, and seven targets inside the 10-yard line. 11 of those 14 scored six or more touchdowns. The average number of touchdowns scored was 7.7. Godwin scored just two, the fewest of the 14 who qualified. Adam Thielen and Garrett Wilson were the only two other receivers who met these criteria but failed to score at least six touchdowns. The Panthers threw 13 touchdowns. The Jets threw 11. The Buccaneers threw 28.
Godwin finished 19th in targets (123), 15th in receptions (83), 23rd in yards (1,024), 24th in red-zone targets (25), 18th in end- zone targets (10), but 68th in touchdowns (two). Godwin finished as the WR39 with a 9.7 half-PPR PPG average. However, his expected half-PPR PPG average was 10.4, ranked as the WR29. Godwin’s expected touchdowns was 6.2, giving him the worst touchdown differential among any receivers last season at -4.2.
Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin connected for a TD on just *1* of their 10 end zone targets last season — tied for the lowest TD rate of any qualified WR.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 8, 2024
From Weeks 14 through Tampa Bay’s playoff loss in the Divisional Round (seven games), Godwin had a higher target share than Evans and per-game averages in targets, receptions, and yards. Godwin’s slot rate last year was just 37.1%. In 2022, it was 73.0%; in 2021, it was 70.4%. The new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, has repeatedly verified that Godwin will return to the slot role this season. That’s great news for his fantasy prospects.
Evans is coming off one of the best three seasons in his career and the best since 2018. He finished with 136 targets, 79 receptions, 1,255 yards, and 13 touchdowns. He finished tied for WR6 with a 15.0 half-PPR PPG average. However, he also finished with the eighth-highest positive point differential between his actual PPG average and his expected PPG average. His 12.8 half-PPR expected PPG average was good for WR15.
He scored 13 touchdowns, but his expected touchdowns was 10.9. He finished with the third-most end-zone targets (20) and caught 50.0% for touchdowns. Calvin Ridley caught seven of his 22 end-zone targets (31.8%), CeeDee Lamb caught eight of his 22 end-zone targets (36.3%), and DK Metcalf caught seven of his 17 end-zone targets (41.1%). Other notable end-zone catch percentages of receivers with at least 10 end-zone targets include A.J. Brown (21.4%), Ja'Marr Chase (36.3%), DeAndre Hopkins (20%), Stefon Diggs (45.4%), Tyreek Hill (41.6%), and DJ Moore (35.7%). You can see how Evans may have run a little hot in the touchdown department.
However, his current WR18 positional ranking takes those aspects into account appropriately. While we shouldn’t expect another top-seven finish, his current ADP isn’t anywhere close to that. Evans had a 24.5% target share and a 25.6% target rate, both very strong numbers. His utilization is also incredibly fantasy-friendly. He had 1,906 air yards (first among receivers), a 39.3% air yards share (sixth highest), 36 deep targets (first), 38 red-zone targets (sixth most), and 20 end-zone targets (third most). While it’s fair to expect a slight drop in efficiency, his general utilization correlates very strongly with fantasy scoring.
WRs with 5+ games with 25+ PPR points in 2023:
Tyreek Hill (9)
CeeDee Lamb (8)
Mike Evans (5)
<end of list>— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 8, 2024
Evans also continued to prove he’s still one of the best in the game. He had a 2.38 yards per route run average (13th best), 15.9 yards per reception (12th highest), and 2.21 yards per team pass attempt average (12th). Fantasy managers can expect a nice bounce-back season for Godwin and still be in on Evans at his current price.
As for McMillan and Palmer, both of these players should be viewed as receiver handcuffs. Palmer ran 55% of his routes out of the slot last season as a rookie. In his final season in college, he ran 67% of his routes from the slot. McMillan ran 89% of his routes from the slot in 2023 and 92% in 2022. With Godwin moving back to the slot role, it’ll be interesting. It is anyone’s guess as to which one of these two receivers will earn the nod at the other outside receiver position since neither player has been asked to do that much in their careers.
Godwin, Evans, and Rachaad White will command so much of Mayfield’s attention that neither of these players can be fantasy-relevant without injury. That’s why their ADPs are where they are. Also, even if an injury were to strike, fantasy managers can’t even be sure which player would be the beneficiary.
Verdict: Fair Price on Mike Evans, Buy Chris Godwin, Fair Price on Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer
Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook
Cade Otton: TE21, ADP 174
If there’s a good thing about Otton, he’s always on the field. He had a 95.9% snap share and ran 568 routes last year, both leading the way at tight ends. That’s just about where the positives end. Despite all that playing, Otton had very little to show for it. Let’s check out some of his stats from last season, courtesy of PlayerProfiler:
- 67 targets (21st)
- 47 receptions (20th)
- 455 yards (21st)
- 2% target share (27th)
- 8% target rate (36th)
- 452 air yards (18th)
- 7 average depth of target (18th)
- 80 yards per route run (36th)
- 8.0 yards per target (29th)
- 7.0 yards per reception (29th)
- 80 yards per team pass attempt (28th)
Those are some brutal numbers. He finished last year as the TE24 with a 5.6 half-PPR PPG average, and his 5.9 half-PPR expected PPG average ranked him as the TE26. If there was one positive, he tied for 10th in touchdowns with four. However, he tied for 10th with three other players, and four touchdowns aren’t exactly moving the needle. He did have 17 red-zone targets (ninth most) and six end-zone targets (ninth most). Based on his playing time, route participation rate, and red-zone utilization, Otton can make for a halfway decent streamer, but there’s little else here.
Verdict: Sell Cade Otton
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