RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~120 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~144+
ANALYSIS: I have to admit I was the first to get overly hyped about Hockenson's rookie-season potential a year ago. All that got me was a huge disappointment. I was ecstatic after Hockenson's first professional game (he went on to reach 25.1 PPR and finished as the 30th-best player of Week 1) but it took Hockenson five games combined after that one to reach that tally again. Was Hockenson a one-game wonder poised to get lost, or is there anything valuable in him?
Judging by his ADP of 144 (12th round!) it looks like fantasy GMs are taking Hockenson's potential with a grain of salt. He's the 16th tight end going off the board, which wouldn't even make him a borderline starter in a 12-team league. Hockenson's projections and past usage, though, speak much better of what could be ahead for him.
Hockenson projects to finish the year as the TE11 with 139 PPR points per PFF last simulations. He is penciled in as the No. 4 option on the Detroit offense judging by the target share he is expected to get (14.3% of all Lions' targets with 77 over the 2020 season). That makes him one of only 15 tight ends over 14 percent, and Hockenson is expected to catch 54 of those 77 targets for 600 yards and 4 TDs. Only ten tight ends are projected to 54+ receptions, Hockenson among them.
The difference between Hockenson's current positional ADP (drafted as TE14) and projected finish (TE11) gives him the best potential return on investment among all tight ends getting drafted inside the top-24 players at the position other than Dallas' Blake Jarwin. Oh, and Matthew Stafford is back riding the Lions pocket. Target Hockenson, draft him earlier than his ADP indicates and reap the rewards.
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