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Welcome to the Super Bowl betting breakdown here at RotoBaller!
We have ourselves quite the matchup to end the season, and it is going to take a unique angle to figure out who has the edge for the finale.
There are a lot of moving pieces to begin any NFL week, so I will update this article as pertinent information comes to light. Without further ado, let's jump right into Super Bowl weekend.
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5): O/U 55
As someone with a relatively large futures wager on the Kansas City Chiefs, my hope of how this game will play out might go slightly against conventional wisdom. If we look back historically at when an elite defense faces an elite offense, defensive wizardry has often been the deciding factor. I've defined "elite" by a unit ranking inside the top-five for EPA on the season, which has amounted to qualifying defenses going 6-2 straight up, allowing just 21 points per contest since the Super Bowl in 2000. In fact, if you just assess the matchups by offense versus defense and don't attach a threshold needed to qualify, the higher-ranked offense has gone only 7-12 in the past 19 games, opposed to the better defense operating at a 15-4 clip and winning by a margin of 7.7 points per game.
None of that bodes well for Patrick Mahomes and company, but I am not so quick to write them off. The easy route to take when trying to make a case for the Chiefs is that Mahomes has another gear that won't allow him to lose, but that obviously isn't something that can be quantified. It is also the sort of a thought process that gets amateur bettors in trouble, so we need to figure out if there is a statistical edge we can point to for what the Chiefs will need to change to place the odds in their favor. Let's start with this vaunted Niners defense that has been elite at times this season.
Ranked second in passing success rate on the year, San Francisco has used their front four to create pressure to opposing QBs and place teams in third and long situations that they were not able to convert. That is generally a pretty good recipe for success for any unit, but I could argue that their prowess isn't exactly what it appears to be on paper. The Niners got off to a blistering start through their first eight games of 2019, not only starting the year 8-0 but also ranking first in the league against the pass. You can't take away any of that from the record book, but when we look at the opposing QBs they faced, it doesn't jump off the page. Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Case Keenum, Kyle Allen, and Kyler Murray are the names that make up the list, and it makes us question the legitimacy of some of that production.
Luckily, we do have a more precise picture to look at during the second half of the season when the Niners drew a much tougher crowd of Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Lamar Jackson. I realize it is not 100 percent ideal either since the defense did face injuries to Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford, and others throughout the last half of the year, but the most comparable competition to what they will be facing on Sunday came during this stretch. During Weeks 10-17, San Francisco struggled to stop their increased level of opponents, ranking 23rd in the NFL against the rush and 15th against the pass.
Robert Saleh's defense has been built to defeat teams by playing zone defense and creating pressure on the QB. If a quarterback doesn't have time to find the open man, chances of either a turnover or sack get exponentially increased. Both of those are advantageous outcomes for the Niners since it either gives them the ball or puts teams way behind the yardage stick, and it makes sense why they have called 77 percent of their formations to feature that setup. I will agree that part of the reason behind this decision is that there is no need to change something that is working, but cornerbacks Richard Sherman and K'Waun Williams don't have the speed to face speedy wideouts in man-t0-man coverage.
Sherman doesn't usually travel with WRs anymore, which could give Kansas City an interesting spot to find some advantages on offense. If I were them, I would stick Sammy Watkins on Sherman's side of the field and set Tyreek Hill in different spots throughout the night. By doing that, you take Watkins' boom-or-bust nature off the table, and you also remove your opponents' best CB. If the Niners choose to continue to play zone out of that look, the Chiefs can create mismatches in other places if their offensive line can keep Mahomes upright. On the flip side, if San Francisco decides to change things up and play one-on-one coverage, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, Sammy Watkins or Tyreek Hill could turn this game into a barnburner against Richard Sherman and K'Waun Williams.
From a pure power rating perspective, it is hard to argue against the 49ers not being a slightly better team on paper, but some holes quickly begin to form for why this contest isn't like every other battle of offense vs. defense. I look for Andy Reid to call an aggressive gameplan from the opening minute to tire out San Francisco's front four, and I think we eventually see Mahomes and KC breakthrough in the first quarter for a lead. If the Chiefs do get up early, they should be able to control the tempo of the game the way they would like with a mix of Damien Williams on the ground and play-action pass attempts, which puts a Jimmy Garoppolo led offense behind the eight-ball against a difficult Chiefs secondary.
Prediction: Chiefs 31 – Niners 20
Recommended Picks: Chiefs (ML), Under 55
With the Super Bowl being the only NFL game that bettors are wagering on, casinos will shade the over/under slightly higher than usual. Even doing that, we have seen both sharp and square bettors push the total up to 55 at the time of writing this article. It seems likely to me that the number will continue to gradually increase throughout the week and will eventually reach a point where sharp bettors weigh in late to get maximum value on their under bets. I like the idea of waiting as long as possible, but it is always a scary venture to oppose the scoreboard being lit up by the Chiefs.
