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Welcome to Week 3 and Sunday Night Football! In addition to our other matchups analysis for the main slate of games on Sunday, below you will find our matchups analysis for the Sunday Night Football game between the Packers and the 49ers.
Both teams have interesting story lines heading into Week 3. After getting surprisingly crushed in Week 1, the Packers had a bounce back game in Week 2 against the Lions. Will that continue in Week 3? For the 49ers, the hot topic seems to be their running backs rollercoaster. Trey Sermon was surprisingly scratched in Week 1, Raheem Mostert got a season-ending injury, and Elijah Mitchell emerged. Then in Week 2, there were various injuries to Mitchell, Sermon and JaMycal Hasty. Tonight the rookie running back Trey Sermon will get his chance, and is expected to see the bulk of the carries.
So where does that leave us? Below you’ll find our take -- the recommended starts, sits, and matchups we love heading into the Week 3 matchup between the Packers and 49ers. Good luck RotoBallers!
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Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
Notable Injuries:
- Elijah Mitchell (RB, 49ers) - Doubtful
- JaMycal Hasty (RB, 49ers) - Out, IR
Matchups We Love
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Jones had a monster game on Monday, putting up six receptions, 115 total yards, and four touchdowns. This demonstrates how high of a ceiling Jones really has, as this isn't the first time he's put up multiple touchdowns in a game. Jones has played 59.84% of the snaps so far, leading running backs with a 13.33% target share. The 49ers rank 16th in run DVOA so far, which makes this an exploitable matchup for Jones. We can continue to fire him up as an elite RB1.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Adams had a big game against the Lions on Monday Night Football, catching 8-of-9 targets for 121 yards. While the 49ers rank 11th in pass DVOA, they've faced the Lions weak receiving core and Eagles unproven young wideouts. Adams should be able to have his way with the 49ers corners, as this team lost it's best cornerback Jason Verrett to a season-ending injury in Week 1. Fire up Adams as an elite WR1.
Matchups We Hate:
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
Tonyan is only playing on 45.9% of the snaps so far this season. He's posted a modest 11.67% target share, making him a touchdown-dependent player. The Packers play at the sixth-slowest pace in football in neutral game scripts, which makes it difficult to rely on Tonyan on a weekly basis. Tonyan simply does not see enough targets to consider as anything more than a low-end TE1. He'll have his spike weeks, but he's really going to be unreliable and better suited for BestBall.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)
Garoppolo has only attempted 55 passes in two games, as he continues to function as the game-manager for a slow-paced offense. The 49ers are currently playing at the second-slowest pace in the NFL in neutral game scripts. They're also passing the ball only 48% of the time, which is the fourth-fewest in the league. This makes the matchup irrelevant for Garoppolo, as he simply does not get enough volume to get it done. He's nothing more than a desperation SuperFlex.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Aiyuk has entrenched himself as the biggest bust in fantasy football, as he's gone from a promising potential Year 2 breakout to an afterthought in this 49ers' offense. Aiyuk has only played on 51.2% of the snaps this season, putting up a ridiculously low 3.77% target share. While better days will likely come at some point, he's absolutely unplayable in season-long formats right now. I'd only consider Aiyuk as a tournament dart throw in DFS.
Other Matchups
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Rodgers had a bounce-back game on Monday, completing 22-of-27 passes for 255 yards and four touchdowns. The problem here is that the Packers continue to play at a slow pace, which limits Rodgers' volume. The veteran quarterback has only attempted 56 passes this season. When you consider the similarly slow-paced, run-heavy style of the 49ers, it's hard to see Rodgers as anything more than a lukewarm option this week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB)
MVS continues to be an air yards machine (268) with poor production (3 REC, 17 YDS). The good news is that he's posted a 20% target share so far this season. We also saw Rodgers miss MVS on a few throws on Monday night. The veteran quarterback specifically remarked how he regretted missing MVS in a post-game interview. This could mean that Rodgers will make it a point of emphasis to find MVS deep in this game, which is the only reason why he remains a lukewarm option.
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
Samuel continued his breakout season last week, catching 6-of-8 targets for 93 yards against the Eagles. Samuel leads the 49ers in air yards (148) and target share (37.4%). He's clearly established himself as the top option in this offense, especially with tight end George Kittle used so often as a blocker. The good thing about Samuel is that his diverse skillset can help him overcome a potential matchup with elite corner Jaire Alexander. I wouldn't worry about Alexander in this game, but I'll still leave Samuel on the lukewarm list just in case.
Trey Sermon (RB, SF)
Sermon has a chance to take over this backfield with Elijah Mitchell listed as doubtful and JaMycal Hasty out for this game. This is a great opportunity against a Packers defense that ranks 25th in rush DVOA. Having said that, we have to leave Sermon in the lukewarm section because we're not sure how much he'll be used in this game, although reports are that he'll get the bulk of the carries. Without much NFL experience, or trust in Kyle Shanahan's usage record, we can consider him an upside FLEX in this spot.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
Kittle has been a massive disappointment through two games, catching 8-of-9 targets for 95 yards. We all know how talented he is, but he's only run 43 routes, which is less than half of Darren Waller's total (91). It's tough to consider Kittle as an elite tight end when he's running so few routes. We need to bump him down until we start seeing some improved usage. Perhaps he gets going in this potential shootout, but it's tough to take him out of the lukewarm section.
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