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Welcome to Week 16, RotoBallers! We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues tonight with Sunday Night Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate on December 26th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Taylor Heinicke ($15,600 DK, $15,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 2,931 passing yards, 19 touchdowns, 12 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 11.2% (19th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -21.1% (first), per Football Outsiders.
I side with Heinicke over Dak here just because of pricing. I don't take much into the fact that Dallas has the number one pass defense in DVOA this season. Heinicke played just over a half in Week 14 when these two matched up, completing 11 of 25 passes for a touchdown and an interception. I think he'll do better this time around, and if nothing else, I'm expecting some garbage time for Washington where both Heinicke and McLaurin hit value.
CeeDee Lamb ($15,000 DK, $13,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 109 targets, 70 receptions, 940 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 22.57% target rate, 14.71% red-zone target rate, nine end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Landon Collins): No Data
We don't have many "cheap" options at the 1.5x spot, so I'll be going with high volume, high production guys in most of my lineups tonight. You can't go wrong with Lamb, who has logged at least nine targets and at least six receptions in each of the last three weeks, including a seven reception, 61-yard performance against Washington just two weeks ago. I anticipate him seeing the volume tonight against Landon Collins, who hasn't done much to shut down opposing wide receivers this season.
Other Captains/MVPs: Dak Prescott, Antonio Gibson, Ezekiel Elliot
DFS Flex Plays
Dak Prescott ($11,400 DK, $16,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 3,598 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 24% (ninth), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 18.9% (27th), per Football Outsiders.
While I'd prefer Heinicke's upside at his price in the 1.5x spot, Dak's upside is right up there with him. I'm somewhat disappointed with the pricing here as Dak has struggled over the last three weeks, though. He hasn't thrown for 300+ yards or more than one touchdown in any of the last three weeks, but he could turn it up tonight against a Washington team whose defense certainly benefits opposing teams' passing offenses. I'll be lighter on the Dallas running backs for this same reason.
Terry McLaurin ($8,800 DK, $13,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 110 targets, 63 receptions, 859 receiving yards, five touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 24.61% target rate, 18.18% red-zone target rate, 11 end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Trevon Diggs): 16% target rate per route covered, 58% catch rate, 0.32 fantasy points per route covered.
As I mentioned with Heinicke, I believe McLaurin has the upside in any game script to hit value here. He wasn't available in Week 14 when these two teams matched up for the first time, but I expect him to get after it tonight. He'll most likely line up against Pro Bown corner Trevon Diggs for most of the night, and while Diggs has been a ball-hawk this season, he's been susceptible to allowing big plays, so don't be surprised if McLaurin takes one 50+ yards for a score tonight.
Other Flex Options: Amari Cooper, Antonio Gibson, Jaret Patterson (if Gibson is OUT)
DFS Value Plays
Ricky Seals-Jones ($4,600 DK, $7,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 46 targets, 28 receptions, 267 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 12.26% target rate, 33.33% red-zone target rate, five end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Jayron Kearse): 11% target rate per route covered, 69% catch rate, 0.18 fantasy points allowed per route covered.
I'm kind of surprised that Seals-Jones is this cheap relative to the volume that he's seeing. In each of the last four games where Logan Thomas has been out, Seals-Jones has seen at least four targets in each of those four games. His 33.33% red-zone rate actually shocked me, and if he sees multiple targets in the red zone, he should have no problem hitting value. He'll likely be the highest-owned play under $5K in this one on DraftKings, so feel free to go with John Bates in tournaments if you want to get a bit different.
Joey Slye ($3,800 DK, $5,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 19 field goals attempted, 17 field goals made, 14/18 PAT.
Kickers are optimal, I say it in every article (ha). Now, I normally pick the kicker from the team that has more scoring upside, but because Slye is so cheap on FanDuel, I would be remiss not to recommend him. Slye has been solid for Washington this season prior to going on IR, and since he was just activated, we get a solid free square on FanDuel tonight. I'll probably be heavier on Greg the Leg so long as I have the salary on DraftKings, but I may have 100% of Slye on FanDuel. I would keep an eye on this one throughout the day though, as just because Slye is active, there is no guarantee he'll get all of the opportunities tonight.
Other Value Plays: Greg Zuerlein, Cowboys D/ST
I hope you had a great Christmas, enjoy your Sunday night, and good luck everyone!
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