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Welcome to Week 6, RotoBallers! We've been pretty successful so far and hopefully, that trend continues through this afternoon and tonight with Sunday Night Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football slate on October 17th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Najee Harris ($17,700 DK, $16,500 FD)
Unlike most showdown slates, I personally don't like either quarterback in the MVP spot in this one tonight. Matchups aside, Geno Smith goes for Seattle in his first start since 2017, while Big Ben looks like a shell of what a shell of himself would look like if that makes sense. He's accurately priced on both sites as the most expensive player on the slate, and it's well deserved as he's logged 505 all-purpose yards and three total touchdowns through five weeks.
Seattle's rush DVOA sits at -12.2%, which ranks 17th in the NFL. What makes him an elite play on DraftKings especially, is his receiving floor. He's caught 28 of 39 targets through the first five weeks, and Seattle has a DVOA of 34.1% against running backs in the passing game. This ranks 27th in the league. With the uncertainty of Seattle's offense sans Russell Wilson and Chris Carson, I'll be heavier on Steelers players tonight. I won't be surprised if I end up with over 50% of my lineups having Harris at Captain/MVP tonight.
Diontae Johnson ($14,700 DK, $13,500 FD)
Both sides of this matchup have a pair of elite fantasy WRs on their team, with Pittsburgh having Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson and Seattle having DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. As I mentioned when talking about Najee Harris, the lack of uncertainty in Seattle's offense under Geno Smith makes it difficult to captain them. I do love Johnson though, who's racked up 305 yards on 25 catches (37 targets) in four games this season. He's found the end zone three times as well, and with JuJu Smith-Schuster headed to IR, it just opens up more opportunities for both Johnson and Claypool to thrive despite Ben's shortcomings. While I believe that Claypool has the higher upside, I prefer Johnson's floor but will have shares of both.
Other Captains/MVPs: DK Metcalf, Ben Roethlisberger
DFS Flex Plays
Tyler Lockett ($8,600 DK, $11,500 FD)
While I love all receivers in play tonight and I do feel that DK has the better matchup, I really do like Tyler Lockett the most tonight. While he has no designation for tonight's game, he did miss practice on Thursday with a foot injury. On top of this, I feel like while both top receivers like to make the plays down the field, I think Lockett will run more "safe" routes and will see more targets. Lockett has caught 25 of 35 targets for 390 yards and three touchdowns so far this season, and while that should regress due to Geno Smith throwing him the ball, he's still a viable option tonight.
Alex Collins ($6,800 DK, $9,500 FD)
After Chris Carson was sent to IR with a neck injury, it opens up the door for Alex Collins. Collins was relatively disappointing last week, logging just 72 all-purpose yards on 15 rushing attempts and two catches. The matchup isn't there for Collins tonight, as the Steelers come in with a -27.4% DVOA against the run, which ranks sixth in the league. This is more of a volume play, as I feel like the Seahawks will force-feed Collins to take some of the pressure off of Smith.
Other Flex Options: Geno Smith, Chase Claypool
DFS Value Plays
Steelers D/ST ($5,600 DK)
There's a very real chance this game could be ugly. The Steelers are still among one of the best defenses in football, and while their pass defense has been down this year, they have the advantage of playing Geno Smith tonight. It's inevitable that Geno will turn the ball over at least once, and could spend quite a bit of time on his back as well. The Seahawks come into this one with an adjusted sack rate of 8.2%, among the worst in the league. Pittsburgh hasn't been getting to the quarterback as you'd expect, but tonight could very well change that. If you're feeling crazy, you could captain them, which I likely will in a small percentage of lineups.
Freddie Swain ($2,400 DK, $6,500 FD)
Arguably my favorite value play on this slate is Freddie Swain. Swain has been rather surprising this season, catching ten passes for 134 yards across the first five games. While his true fantasy production is rather touchdown-dependent, which should regress with Wilson's absence, his cheap price tag makes him a viable value option on tonight's slate. Pittsburgh has a DVOA of 15.6% against "other" wide receivers or wide-receivers who aren't in the top two on the depth chart. That number ranks 27th in the league, and who knows, maybe Freddie catches a touchdown tonight.
Other Value Plays: Chris Boswell, DeeJay Dallas
OVERALL SLATE NOTE: I'm going to have a very tight player pool tonight. There are only a few outcomes I see happening, and I will be building with that in mind. I'll have shares of both QBs, RBs, the four main WRs, but will look to hedge with guys like Freddie Swain in some lineups and the Steelers defense in other lineups.
Happy football season, everyone!
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