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Welcome to Week 15, RotoBallers! We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues tonight with Sunday Night Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate on December 19th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Taysom Hill ($15,600 DK, $14,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 495 passing yards, two touchdowns, five interceptions, 278 rushing yards, five touchdowns.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 14.6% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -2.2% (fifth), per Football Outsiders.
Hill is relatively cheap on both sites compared to other "running" quarterbacks. I think the Bucs win this game rather easily, but Hill could take care of business and hit value in garbage time. There's always the possibility that New Orleans is able to keep it close, in which case Hill will likely be optimal regardless. He has a safe rushing floor and unless something unforeseen happens or he just can't anything going, he's a solid option at the 1.5x spot.
Leonard Fournette ($13,800 DK, $13,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 171 attempts, 778 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns, 77 targets, 62 receptions, 421 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 58.56% attempt rate, 63.49% red zone attempt rate, 64.71% attempt rate within the five-yard line, 13.95% target rate, 14.85% red-zone target rate, one end zone target.
- Offense Rush DVOA: 10.2% (second), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -30.3% (first), per Football Outsiders.
Playoff Lenny season is approaching. This isn't the greatest matchup for him, but he has the capability to take over a game at any point. He's really adapted well in Tampa Bay as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, so I do prefer Fournette on DraftKings over FanDuel tonight. However, if the Bucs pull away in this one, we could see Fournette log some garbage time yards. He's questionable as of now but practiced in a limited fashion on Friday so he should play.
Other Captains/MVPs: Rob Gronkowski, Alvin Kamara
DFS Flex Plays
Tom Brady ($12,200 DK, $17,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 4,134 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 311 rushing yards.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 45.4% (first), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 3.9% (11th), per Football Outsiders.
I have to mention Brady here, especially with how well he's playing this season. Despite losing to the Saints back in Week 8, Brady threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns. The game script leans towards the Bucs passing so long as the game is close, I'd pair Brady with a pass-catcher or two tonight and watch him let it fly. I don't think he wants to lose to New Orleans again, so I expect him to come out guns blazing.
Mike Evans ($8,600 DK, $12,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 99 targets, 63 receptions, 885 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 17.75% target rate, 14.85% red-zone target rate, nine end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs. Marshon Lattimore): 16% target rate per route covered, 57% catch rate, 0.35 fantasy points per route covered.
While Brady has been lighting the scoreboard up with his arm, more than 25% of his touchdowns have gone to Mike Evans. Evans doesn't see a ton of target share relative to other top receivers, but his ability to be a safety blanket and a menace in the end zone makes him the perfect stack partner with Brady. I'd rather play Godwin on DraftKings, but give me all the Mike Evans on FanDuel.
Other Flex Options: Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski
DFS Value Plays
Ronald Jones ($5,600 DK, $7,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 63 attempts, 274 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 21.58% attempt rate, 17.46% red-zone attempt rate, 17.65% attempt rate within the five-yard line.
- Offense Rush DVOA: 10.2% (second), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -30.3% (first), per Football Outsiders.
In the event that Fournette doesn't play, Jones becomes a home-run value option in any lineup. However, assuming Fournette plays, you should be able to get Jones pretty low-owned, and if the Bucs pull away, we could see Jones getting the garbage time carries. Nevertheless, it's a boom or bust play, but Jones could win you a GPP tonight if the stars align.
Ryan Succop ($4,200 DK, $9,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 20 field goals attempted, 17 field goals made, 47/50 PAT.
You're going to need value tonight, and as per usual, I'll be looking at kickers for my value. Despite attempting just 20 field goals all season, you're getting a rather "safe" extra point floor from Succop, as I think the Bucs will likely score points. Brett Maher isn't a bad option either if you need the extra $400, but there is a chance the Saints fail to get anything going so Succop is the safe play.
Other Value Plays: Brett Maher, Buccaneers D/ST
Enjoy your Sunday night and good luck everyone!
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