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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and Sunday Night Football - Chiefs vs Raiders showdown slate. His Week 10 SNF daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome to Week 10, RotoBallers! We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues tonight with Sunday Night Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate on November 14th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Derek Carr ($15,900 DK, $15,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 2,575 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, seven interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 16.7% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 23.7% (27th), per Football Outsiders.
I'm leaning Carr over Patrick Mahomes here on DraftKings mostly due to the fact that he's $2,700 cheaper, but he also comes in with the better matchup. Carr and the Raiders struggled last week, but this is a prime bounce-back spot for them. In two games against KC last year Carr had north of 600 yards as well as six touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 72.6% of his passes.
Tyreek Hill ($16,500 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 101 targets, 68 receptions, 772 yards, six touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 78.24% snap rate, 28.29% target rate, 25% red-zone target rate, five end zone targets.
- Opposing DVOA vs #1 WR: -2% (18th), per Football Outsiders.
- WR/CB Matchup (vs Nate Hobbs): 10% targets per route, 88% catch rate, 0.14 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I know Hill is expensive, but he's seen double-digit targets in five of the last six games. He struggled last week, catching just four of 11 targets. Hill should see some positive regression tonight against Nate Hobbs, who allows an 88% catch rate. The last time the Chiefs went to Vegas, Hill caught 11 of 14 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown. He'll look to repeat that performance tonight.
Other Captains/MVPs: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake
DFS Flex Plays
Patrick Mahomes ($12,400 DK, $17,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 2,534 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 37 rushing attempts, 227 rushing yards, 1 touchdown.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 22.7% (13th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 9.2% (17th), per Football Outsiders.
The last three weeks (along with last year's Super Bowl) have shown us that Patrick Mahomes is actually human. The Chiefs need this one though, and Mahomes plays well against the Raiders. He threw the ball 40+ times in each game against Vegas last season, throwing for a combined 688 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. To use a cliche, this is the "biggest game" of the Chiefs season thus far, and I think Patty reminds everyone how good he is in prime time.
Josh Jacobs ($9,200 DK, $12,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 73 attempts, 280 rushing yards, 5 touchdowns, 20 targets, 18 receptions, 129 receiving yards, zero touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 55.11% snap rate, 54.89% attempt rate, 60% red zone attempt rate, 66.67% attempt rate within the 5yd line.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: -15.2% (23rd), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -2.2% (29th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing DVOA vs RB (Receiving): 24.6% (28th), per Football Outsiders.
Jacobs has been banged up this season, but he's been playing well when he's in there. He's logged at least 13 DK points in each of his last four games and now gets arguably the best matchup in football for running backs, against the Chiefs. He scored three touchdowns in two games last season against KC, but my only concern here is we see a heavy Kenyan Drake night. More on that...
Other Flex Options: Darren Waller, Travis Kelce, Mecole Hardman
DFS Value Plays
Kenyan Drake ($4,400 DK, $10,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 46 attempts, 190 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns, 36 targets, 31 receptions, 257 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown.
- 2021 Data: 40.91% snap rate, 23.83% attempt rate, 25% red-zone attempt rate, 11.1% attempt rate within the five, 10.33% target rate, 11.36% red-zone target rate, zero endzone targets.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: -15.2% (23rd), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -2.2% (29th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing DVOA vs RB (Receiving): 24.6% (28th), per Football Outsiders.
With all things considered, it's pretty shocking that Drake is this cheap on DraftKings. Normally I wouldn't even consider playing the same two running backs on the same team, but with how embarrassingly cheap he is as well as the need to pay up for studs, I wouldn't be against it tonight. I still wouldn't recommend doing this a bunch if you're making 10+ lineups, but I believe you can do it tonight.
DeSean Jackson ($4,200 DK, $6,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 15 targets, 8 receptions, 221 yards, one touchdown.
- 2021 Data: 22.62% snap rate, 6.25% target rate, 0% red-zone target rate, 0 end zone targets.
- Opposing DVOA vs 'Other' WR: -42.1% (2nd), per Football Outsiders.
- No Individual Matchup Data.
I really would've liked him to be cheaper on DraftKings, but Jackson has been the ultimate "Why not?" value over the last few seasons. I would certainly recommend him as a GPP only play, but he could end up in the optimal lineup should he have a line like two receptions, 144 yards, and a touchdown.
Other Value Plays: Harrison Butker, Daniel Carlson, Foster Moreau
Overall Slate Note
There are a ton of options on the slate, so I would certainly recommend playing multiple lineups in this one. Both offenses are certainly good enough to make this a high-scoring game. They scored an average of 69 (nice) points in their two meetings last season, but with both offenses somewhat struggling last week, we could see a slow start as well. There's a lot of variance in this matchup I believe, so I'll be making my lineups accordingly.
Enjoy your Sunday night, and good luck, everyone!
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